Re: Saint's Intraday Miniflow - live discussion
A snapshot of trade details for this year 2009 upto 8th May
Hello LV
Excellent work. :clapping:
Van Tharp in his book "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" has given an excellent way to interpret/analyze this data (trades).
He talks about 6 keys(Variables) for trading success and Expectancy
- Reliability (Win Loss Ratio)
- The R multiples (Risk Reward Ratio)
- The cost of making an investment or trade
- How often you get the opportunity to trade(frequency)
- The size of your trading or investing capital
- The position-sizing model
Expectancy, tells you how much you can expect to make on the average (over a number of trades) per dollar risked.
Expectancy = (PW * AW) less (PL * AL)
where
PW is the probability of a winning trade (no of winners / total trades)
PL is the probability of a losing trade (no of losers / total trades)
AW refers to the average gain (total gain / no of winners)
AL refers to the average loss (total loss / no of losers).
Thus
Expectancy will give you in a single number a snapshot of how good the method is.
Since we have many members trading the same method a periodic evaluation of expectancy that everyone is getting will help share the information without disclosing the personal data like trade size/ nett gains etc.