i have funded 500$ , what amount should i aim for everyday?

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4xpipcounter

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, wow yes you are right !!haha, that is funny but its quite strange !I mean either it could be like a co-incident or is there a reason behind this?

As I mentioned, it is algebra. EUR/GBP*GBP/USD =EUR/USD. In algebra, the GBP's cancel out and is left with the EUR/USD.

In trading spot forex, you are really comparing one index to the other. With the EUR/USD it is the percentage of difference of the euro and the USD. That difference is currently 1.4420, which means the euro in terms of 1:1 comparison of euro to USD is 1.4420 times as much.

The same math will play out for all the crosses. As an example, GBP/USD*USD/JPY=GBP/JPY.
It also works for multiple currencies. As an example, EUR/GBP*GBP/CHF*CHF/JPY=EUR/JPY. This is because both the GBP and CHF are found in both the numerator and denominator, so they cancel out, and you are left with the EUR/JPY.
In terms of an analysis, let's say you have determined that the EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF, and the CHF/JPY are all going up, then one thing is for sure; the EUR/JPY is going up even faster. This would be considered cross trading. If you feel those former 3 are going up, but maybe not sure of one of them, then based on that, you could trade the EUR/JPY and feel reasonably safe it is going up.
 

4xpipcounter

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Wow! I'm keeping Tucker away from your dog.
Between Tucker, my wife, and Cocoa (her chihuahua-yorkshire), we keep our home quite lively.

I used to have up to 10 trades open at one time. I don't like to do that anymore, because managing that many trades was driving me nuts, so I opted for a more conservative 2-3 trades.
My record was 18 trades at one time. There is another one of my stories behind that. Someone in a forum like this one was bagging on the ichimoku (long story short). I announced in the forum the trades I just made and showed why because of obviations on the ichimoku. I closed the trades 2 days later, all winners, +3,650 pips. The catch was there was 1/50th the normal lot side, so on the 3,650 pips, I made the equivalent of 77 pips in normal trading. It was worth the headache. I still have the proof and will always keep it.
I'll add there are a lot of things I don't like talking about with respect to trading because it is rhetorical. That story is one of them. It's just a highlight story.

I don't remember what my profit was for those 25 consecutive winning trades. Okay, here's some more rhetoric, but is still true. I've made 100% in one month. It is not even logical to believe that will happen on a regular basis. They are exceptions to the rule when they do happen.
I've also had a losing month, but that is an exception.

A loosing trade is just the price of doing business. As long as the winning trades consistently outweigh the losing trades, then you will make money.
There is still much to learn along these lines. I'm glad you are doing well
up to this point, and I hope it keeps going. After you have absolutely established the fact what your methodology is and you are completely satisfied in knowing you have the best one for you, then you have consistent money management to learn, and then the intangible element of trading which is the mental portion of trading.


No sir i am not graduated but i am way behind, i should have complete my graduation 2 years from now but it will take 5 more years! i failed in class due to maths! here the graduation means after completing 15 years of study life!!!!!, 12 years of school and 3 years of college life! the moment i entered your blog i had known how much you love your dog :) As for mam (your wife) she must be greatly angry on both of you :p dogs and married woman don't get along together :p I have a Dobermann, I love him to !!

Sir now you win 85 percent of trades! wooh that is great!how many trades do you open in a day sir? i think your biggest winning streak was 25 consecutive trades with no losses.was the result of 100 percent profit in a month:p Now i understand that winning or loosing trades continously does not make a good trader!I haveto keep this in mind! before i always use to get dissapointed on myself for every loosing trade, ! a good trader makes a approx amount of % of profits every month :) Yes sir there is no age for learning, learning never ends:) I would love to here about how much money did you started with and what it stands today! how you developed it your winning system and the open minded idea's!
 
Thank you sir! You have made 100% in a month that is really a good record sir!! :) ! I would say it could be possible but its purely very hard to do that on a regular basis, I personally feel that making 90-100% every month is cream-pie for you, i think good traders make around 40% every month and that is good,moreover i feel that if a trader is very confident on a trade that it will go with him(know this is market anything can happen) then what is the harm to risk more than 2% on that trade?! sir i think till now i have watched the recent 1 hour chart for EURO DOLLAR for hours, tested it on live market, with 10% focus on F.A i am doing very well with bollilnger-bands,Rsi and Stoch! With their confluence and my idea i have winning trades after i started doing T.A by the grace of you!! but i am thinking to learn macd and parabolic-sar though i am not interested in using them as i am doing well i still have a wish to learn and experiment them on a seperate chart , i have left ichimoku for now as it is totaly confusing me!!I have to learn about trending market and how to "SPOT"them! I know what trending markets are like aud/usd was in a bullish trend from 10th august till today (higher highs) but there was a reversal from 17th august till 18th august!!could you guide me on this one sir please?
 
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4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
I started the same as you by depositing $500 in my trading account. I don't want to discuss how much I have to trade with now. It's more than $500--lol.

Each part of my methodology came together at periodic times. In July 2004 I first opened a demo account. I read a book on indicators. I learned a lot from that book, but quickly made my first mistake. I enjoyed the stochastics. I also liked the MACD and Williams. The only problem is they all essentially do the same thing because they are all oscillators. As I was instructed from the beginning, you always want to have a confluence of events. My confluence was happening all the time, but I could figure out why I kept bankrupting my demo account. The first lesson I learned is never use similar indicators. I liked the qualities of the stochastics and opted for it.

Time continued and I was experimenting with MA crossovers in lieu of the stochastics indicator. I found out MA crossover systems make great talking points and they sell lots of e-books, but that is about all they are worth.

Later I adopted a liking to the Bollinger Bands because of my independent studies in statistics and love for standard deviations and their meaning. I was also using the 55 EMA and the 200 SMA as a means of support or resistance.
To this point, things were working okay, but still not as well as I wanted, and I was still having too many losing days, weeks, etc.
I kept refining things and kept doing various tests to determine extreme readings for a market, which common sense told me if a market was extreme, then it would be time for it to reverse. In addition, I was interested in how trends work. I would ask questions like, "What is the determination of the trend's limit? How can I determine its range?" I never bought into the talking point to but the dips and sell the peaks, because my question always was, "How do you know this is the peak or the dip? What if this so-called dip is the beginning of a new downtrend."

2008 was the best year for me in the total developmental process of my methodology. I had a chat room at the time, and we had many people in that room. It was quite enjoyable, and we all learned something. It was actually the latter part of 2007 when I invited someone to our chat room that used the ichimoku as a standalone. I did not like the idea of using such an indicator to trade with, but open to the idea of bringing the guy in our room and having him share his ideas with my people. No one was interested, except....me.
Once I understood the ichimoku and how it worked, I stopped the usage of the Bollinger Bands and I quit a service I had with TRM bands. The ichimoku cloud was born the cornerstone of my methodology.

That wasn't enough for that year. I was having conversations with a guy who lives somewhat close to me home. We could kill a whole day doing nothing but talking trading. With this guy, though, it was nothing but talk. He was never a trader. Nevertheless, an idea clicked through an e-mail he sent me. He said, "Check this out! You are not going to believe it!" It was a course he wanted me to pay for and learn some new techniques. For me, it was simple, "Nothing doing!" It was not worth the time of day. However....something clicked. The lights went on! He had brought up a trend's range and how to discern it, and this tied it nicely with this information he sent me.
Wow! I was beside myself! I got to thinking and throwing around some formulas. Finally, I came up with a way to not only determine a trend's range, but it's correction points and the level of correction. Thus, my S&R's were born.
Later that year, a friend from the chat room sent me an indicator. He said, "Paul, plug it in and see what happens." For a minute, I thought it was a practical joke. After all we all had a good time, and were always filled with jokes. Still, I took him up on it. I downloaded the indicator and I could hardly believe my eyes. It was my S&R's! To this day, I am very thankful to the guy that did that for me.

I won't say how many indicators I used and studied because they are copious, but as far as the indicators are concerned, that is what is used in my methodology. It still was not consummated, though. In November 2010 I had a pop advertising on my e-mail. All I needed to do was click on the image and see a video, which was on trendlines. I never learned to used them right, and so I decided to watch. I applied what I saw then made my own conclusions. It was hard to believe something this simple could be this effective, but it was. The number one point about TL's is that there will be a point the TL breaks, and then a correction back to the point it broke, and then the trend continues.
Probably, the least of my methodology, but still highly effective is the SD channel. I found it when someone sent me a link to over 1,000 indicators to check out. Most of it is junk, but I'm glad I pulled out the plum.

With the complete formulation of my trading system, I believe it is the best for me and the way I trade. Each indicator is highly diverse unto itself and it has its place within the methodology. In searching for the consummate methodology it has enabled me to study copious indicators and give me what I feel is a more than excellent idea of the workability of each. I've also learned, as I have worked with several people privately that no one indicator is perfect, but only perfect for the individual. This is where I separate what I feel is very opinionated personality with what is right with regards to trading. I'm opinionated for what is right and wrong and also based on past experiences. The one thing I have noticed is when it comes to indicators and trading styles, there are no absolutes, but only what is absolute for the individual. This is why I might share opinions concerning indicators, but never push that opinion that it needs to be adopted. I have always strongly stressed the individualism of trading.
 

4xpipcounter

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No! I wanted to be very clear. It is an exception. Nothing is cream pie in this business. I'm a good trader and forecaster, but all of us are subject to bankrupting their account in a single click of the mouse if they are not careful. There are too many variable to disaster. This is why the mental part to trading is vital. Mixing in a work ethic and discipline is also highly vital.

I think most people would like to make 40% per month. You're in the top 10% if you are making 1% per month. After all 90% are loosing. Those are just statistics for the industry.

I never said to risk only 2% on a trade. Many suggest that, which I think is another typical talking point. There are some important points that should be made, and this is what I think is important. When you risk 2% and lose, you only need 2.04% to get back to the original amount. If you risk 20% and lose, you need to make 25% to get back to 0. It is better to start off at a lower risk until you have established yourself as a live trader.

I'm glad you are getting some good from my experience, but I have no grace to offer. Just some trading skills and always an honest opinion or assessment.

As long as what you have is working, then the best thing to do is stick with it. It's okay to improve what you have, but never make wholesale changes to your method.

The accompanied chart shows why I adapted the TL's. The red lines on my chart are always drawn from the weekly TF. What we see if the initial break of the TL, then the correction back up to it. That is the point position traders would want to short this pair.


Thank you sir! You have made 100% in a month that is really a good record sir!! :) ! I would say it could be possible but its purely very hard to do that on a regular basis, I personally feel that making 90-100% every month is cream-pie for you, i think good traders make around 40% every month and that is good,moreover i feel that if a trader is very confident on a trade that it will go with him(know this is market anything can happen) then what is the harm to risk more than 2% on that trade?! sir i think till now i have watched the recent 1 hour chart for EURO DOLLAR for hours, tested it on live market, with 10% focus on F.A i am doing very well with bollilnger-bands,Rsi and Stoch! With their confluence and my idea i have winning trades after i started doing T.A by the grace of you!! but i am thinking to learn macd and parabolic-sar though i am not interested in using them as i am doing well i still have a wish to learn and experiment them on a seperate chart , i have left ichimoku for now as it is totaly confusing me!!I have to learn about trending market and how to "SPOT"them! I know what trending markets are like aud/usd was in a bullish trend from 10th august till today (higher highs) but there was a reversal from 17th august till 18th august!!could you guide me on this one sir please?
 

sanjosedesi

Well-Known Member
I started the same as you by depositing $500 in my trading account. I don't want to discuss how much I have to trade with now. It's more than $500--lol.
Hi Paul, very interesting discussion and commentary. Right now it is very early morning [ Edit/Add - which means I am trying to grapple all the world's news and moves and sort of hung over ... not because of drinking as I do not drink ], but let me take time and think of some questions to extend this Q&A on the learnings, the mistakes, the absolute horrors and the absolute winners ... something like that.
 
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4xpipcounter

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Look forward to it, SJD.
I don't drink alcohol of any sorts either.


Hi Paul, very interesting discussion and commentary. Right now it is very early morning [ Edit/Add - which means I am trying to grapple all the world's news and moves and sort of hung over ... not because of drinking as I do not drink ], but let me take time and think of some questions to extend this Q&A on the learnings, the mistakes, the absolute horrors and the absolute winners ... something like that.
 

sanjosedesi

Well-Known Member
The number one point about TL's is that there will be a point the TL breaks, and then a correction back to the point it broke, and then the trend continues.
A question on this aspect of TLs. There has to be a point when the trend reverses. How do you identify that? How do you distinguish that from a correction and a continuation?
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
A continuation is a term I coined more for my S&R's. As you know by the charts posted in the blog, there is a very high percentage that when my S or R is hit, there will be a reversal back to at least 38.2% of the reference points. If the minimum correction is not met, then it will continue from the 1 to the 2; thus, a continuation.
A trend change could be a correction only depended on what TF's you are looking at. Gold has had a trend change, mainly due to the TL being broken. A look at the daily chart would seem to indicate gold just had a bad day at the office and that it will return to the uptrend after hitting the tenken.
Very strong OB conditions on the daily, weekly, and monthly, along with very extreme SD channel indications are all showing that gold is preparing for a sizable drop.
Another indication of a change in the trend is when key chart supports are taken out convincingly. The recent swing low on the daily is 1725. When that point is broken, that's also a strong indication the trend has reversed.
The thing I also like about the ichimoku is that it identifies key chart S&R's. The tenken has also leveled in the 1725 area before it rose again.
If I was holding long on gold, and I did not have an indication of the reversal in the circa 1923 area (Actual reversal was 1911.), I would be closing my position at current level. This is because the 4-hour TL was broken, and we already had the reversal back to the TL.
If I was looking to go short, and did not know of the circa reversal area, then right now would be the place I would choose to short gold.


A question on this aspect of TLs. There has to be a point when the trend reverses. How do you identify that? How do you distinguish that from a correction and a continuation?
 

4xpipcounter

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The accompanied chart should help further your understanding on the nature of TL's.

As you know from my Weekly Forecast, I am favoring a longer term decline for this pair. The thing I failed to point out in my forecast was that price action was going to correct back to 1.0517, which is the point price action broken through the TL drawn from the daily (blue line). We see yesterday's peak at 1.0533, which has fulfilled the TL expectancy, so now we have a strong break south to look forward to for this market.

By looking at this 4-hour chart only, it might be hard to tell if this move was a correction or the beginning of a new trend. This is where you flip over to the higher TF's, and they show this is only a correction.

OTOH, we see a full-blow uptrend on the 15-min, with a complete trend reversal, and now a correction .

Again, the daily TL was broken so that indicates that after the correction back to (which was completed today) it, the downtrend returns in earnest. Watch for when key chart S and R's are broken of the TL for that TF is broken.
 
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