Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[prada]

I meant drying up of volumes on UP days. Anyways, there was loss of momentum in the last leg and the market movement was purely due to retailers(dumb money) at play. Smart money started winding up their positions above 5970.

I agree with your viewpoint about nifty taking resistance at 5965.. even Elliots wave confirms this... but not sure on your comment about volume... average volume traded before this was pretty much the same...only neo wave , Elliots were giving early indications

 

[Option.Trader]

I meant drying up of volumes on UP days. Anyways, there was loss of momentum in the last leg and the market movement was purely due to retailers(dumb money) at play. Smart money started winding up their positions above 5970.

that sure may be the case... but i struggle to objectively identify how we say from the data that "Smart money started winding up their position above 5970"... i track FII data that we attribute as smart money... and that didnt provide any clue as to them winding up... i agree after 5880 they have been having negative positions on OI side.. but not before that...

 

[prada]

Purely looking at FII data will give no clue. FIIS hardly participated in the FNO space towards the end of the rally. In the cash market you will have no idea as to what they bought and what they sold. Just looking at "net buy' figure superficially in the cash segment the herd is made to believe FII's are bullish on Indian market.

that sure may be the case... but i struggle to objectively identify how we say from the data that "Smart money started winding up their position above 5970"... i track FII data that we attribute as smart money... and that didnt provide any clue as to them winding up... i agree after 5880 they have been having negative positions on OI side.. but not before that...

 

[Sultaan]

Nothing to worry, the sideways movement seen in our market since 2007 will come to an end soon and the wide range seen in the last two years will give way on the downside. Bears will take complete control of the market from here on. What bear market(1 month) are you talking about when we are already in one for the last 5 years. I am neither a permanent bull nor a permanent bear, I look at the longer term picture and try to capture the largest piece of the cake. Operation 'demolition midcap' has just begun and I expect the midcap indices to halve from its peek. Terrible terrible year on the cards for the equity markets.

U say last 5 years bear mkt, I say after 5 year massive bull mkt (03/08) 5 yrs consolidation (which is excellent) 52/5300 is the key... for the massive bull mkt ahead of us to make a final couple yrs run... banks / auto / pharma / IT all either consolidating or in new bull mkt highs already... oil (the mega giants) all waking up after the current steps being taken by govt. I see is a quarter of correction after 4 quarters upmove of HH HLs... weekly charts were highly over bought...

beauty eye beholder etc etc

 

[Option.Trader]

Purely looking at FII data will give no clue. FIIS hardly participated in the FNO space towards the end of the rally. In the cash market you will have no idea as to what they bought and what they sold. Just looking at "net buy' figure superficially in the cash segment the herd is made to believe FII's are bullish on Indian market.

Well i'm only looking at the FII FNO space. We all know how ridiculously easy it is to manipulate cash market... a while ago a brokerage firm bought down the market by 15% with just around 650 crore of basket order placement...
On FNO side.. i still see 26% as FII share on futures side... Prada, i'm not doubting your statements, i just want to figure out the possibility when the FNO space is so dominated by FII's if there is any way to figure out their bias as clearly they will influence the market by way of size... i do track their activity http://nseindia.com/content/fo/fii_stats_01-Mar-2013.xls and compare what they have done compared to previous day.

 

[prada]

Bulls can heave a huge sigh of relief as long as this dead cat bounce lasts. Its coming to an end sooner than later abruptly. Will post an update as soon as I capture the next move. Please don't get trapped in this sucker punch rally! What we have witnessed in the last few weeks is only an insight of the things that are about to unfold this year.

 

[Rish]

Any rise sell, Nifty target is intact 5235.10 for sure. The fall will be vertical straight cut from 5618 to 5480.......5235.10. Just watch ! ! ! ! !

 

[bigbullinside]

Bulls can heave a huge sigh of relief as long as this dead cat bounce lasts. Its coming to an end sooner than later abruptly. Will post an update as soon as I capture the next move. Please don't get trapped in this sucker punch rally! What we have witnessed in the last few weeks is only an insight of the things that are about to unfold this year.

Thanks for all the insight on Nifty index that you have been providing.
Just have a couple of questions.............

1. I too believe that at least the gap at 5540-5420 (not quite sure) will get filled (I am hoping it will be done before March expiry as I have 5600 Puts). But Dow is at an all time high and looks like today it will be another all time high close. So in the global context where other indices are hitting all time highs, how does our market stand. Because Nifty will also rally if other major indices are rallying. Your thoughts on this one.

2. On the upside what level are you looking for to create fresh short positions (5880 maybe).

3. This one is more of a time bound question. If you can, as i said that I have March 5600 Puts at 30, do you think that there is any chance I will get a chance to exit above 70 on this one. I also have a Long Straddle for the April series. 5600 Put and 6000 Call. Have entered at a total premium of 115.

Cheers Mate! You have been of tremendous help till now. Please continue to guide us.

 

[prada]

Here we go...

1.Global rally cannot be endless. There has to be a reversal at some point. Its only a matter of time. In my opinion this month(max next month) will be the end of the game for US/global equities. Our market has got disconnected from the global trend and in any case will under-perform. In case US markets correct 25-30% from its peak which eventually will happen, I expect Nifty to at least correct 35-40%. This will obviously happen gradually.

2. IMO, 5880 will be an ideal level to start shorting if it is seen. 5880-5950 is an excellent level to accumulate shorts.

3. I don't trade options except in extreme cases wherein I use it for hedging. I think other members who are experts in trading options will help you out with this one.

Thanks for all the insight on Nifty index that you have been providing.
Just have a couple of questions.............

1. I too believe that at least the gap at 5540-5420 (not quite sure) will get filled (I am hoping it will be done before March expiry as I have 5600 Puts). But Dow is at an all time high and looks like today it will be another all time high close. So in the global context where other indices are hitting all time highs, how does our market stand. Because Nifty will also rally if other major indices are rallying. Your thoughts on this one.

2. On the upside what level are you looking for to create fresh short positions (5880 maybe).

3. This one is more of a time bound question. If you can, as i said that I have March 5600 Puts at 30, do you think that there is any chance I will get a chance to exit above 70 on this one. I also have a Long Straddle for the April series. 5600 Put and 6000 Call. Have entered at a total premium of 115.

Cheers Mate! You have been of tremendous help till now. Please continue to guide us.

 

[SexyTrader]

Here we go...

1.Global rally cannot be endless. There has to be a reversal at some point. Its only a matter of time. In my opinion this month(max next month) will be the end of the game for US/global equities. Our market has got disconnected from the global trend and in any case will under-perform. In case US markets correct 25-30% from its peak which eventually will happen, I expect Nifty to at least correct 35-40%. This will obviously happen gradually.

2. IMO, 5880 will be an ideal level to start shorting if it is seen. 5880-5950 is an excellent level to accumulate shorts.

3. I don't trade options except in extreme cases wherein I use it for hedging. I think other members who are experts in trading options will help you out with this one.

In my opinion, this is a FAKE rally of sorts for NIFTY

I have already bought 5600 PE at dirt-cheap 11.75/- with as many lots as I can accumulate :thumb:

The 5600 Put is so cheap right now...that getting a DOUBLING or TRIPLING off this price is like child's play