Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[DSM]

It takes courage to stand to one's conviction, especially when the general consensus is against your broader outlook. Well done Prada! But be warned. The pack will be back with pitchforks and clubs if you are in the wrong!

1000 point cut is here.

2nd January 2013, 12:29 PM

 

[prada]

This is how I interpret Nifty's recent move. There are different ways to interpret the same through traditional chart patterns but looking at the long term pattern this is how I would like to decode the move. 5965-5970 is a potential 2013 top.

 

[prada]

Infosys( cmp 2920 )

In my opinion the stock has seen the highs for the year. I have an initial target of 2750 for the stock. Sell on rise will be a good strategy.

 

[Arsh]

Budget 2013 unveiled:
CORPORATE SECTOR AND MARKETS

* Plans to issue inflation-indexed bonds

* Proposes capital allowance of 15 pct to companies on an 1 billion rupees

* Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) can use investments in corporate, vernment bonds as collateral to meet margin requirements

* Insurance, provident funds can trade directly in debt changes

* FIIs can hedge forex exposure through exchange-traded derivatives

* Investor with less than 10 pct stake in a company will be regarded as FII, more than 10 pct stake as FDI (foreign direct investment)

* Stock exchange regulator will simplify know-your-customer norms for reign portfolio investors

* To implement quickly recommendations of financial sector forms commission

TAX

* Proposes surcharge of 10 pct on rich taxpayers with annual income of more than 10 million rupees a year

* To increase surcharge to 10 pct on domestic companies with annual income of more than 100 million rupees

* To continue 15 pct tax concession on dividend received by India companies from foreign units for one more year

* Propose to impose withholding tax of 20 pct on profit distribution to shareholders

* Propose to reduce securities transaction tax on equity futures to 0.01 pct from 0.017 pct

* Time to introduce commodities transaction tax (CTT)

* CTT on non-agriculture futures contracts at 0.1 pct

Source: http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/02/28/india-union-budget-2013-chidambaram-idINDEE91R03C20130228

 

[prada]

Test of 200 day EMA is coming sooner than expected!

BTW: Where are the members who were calling this a bull market? People on TV calling this is a bull market and giving astonishing targets of 6500 and 7000 sometime back must be wiping out blood from their eyes. Stocks don't fall 30 and 40 % in a single day during a bull market. Revisit the first post of this thread to understand what is going on in this market.

 

[DSM]

Prada, Went thru your fist post, where you have stated :

'Before we resume the next leg of the power bull market rally which started in 2001, which could take us all the way to 12,350 within a period of next 6-7 years, there is pending correction which could be quite painful.

This correction will be quite sharp and I dont want to put out numbers here, since that could be quite disturbing.....'

It seems the correction that you had presicted seems to have started, do you have a retracement level target and time frame?

This would help to understand your viewpoint.

Thanking you in advance.

Test of 200 day EMA is coming sooner than expected!

BTW: Where are the members who were calling this a bull market? People on TV calling this is a bull market and giving astonishing targets of 6500 and 7000 sometime back must be wiping out blood from their eyes. Stocks don't fall 30 and 40 % in a single day during a bull market. Revisit the first post of this thread to understand what is going on in this market.

 

[prada]

@DSM, In this leg of the move , I don't see Nifty falling below 5590. Close to 5590-5600 I see a sharp pull back in our markets to the extent of at least 4-5%. Both Bank nifty and Midcap index are extremely oversold and this will lead the rally from the front. Going long close to 5600 will be extremely fruitful. Will analyse the next leg of the fall and post it here once the relief rally gets over.

Prada, Went thru your fist post, where you have stated :

'Before we resume the next leg of the power bull market rally which started in 2001, which could take us all the way to 12,350 within a period of next 6-7 years, there is pending correction which could be quite painful.

This correction will be quite sharp and I dont want to put out numbers here, since that could be quite disturbing.....'

It seems the correction that you had presicted seems to have started, do you have a retracement level target and time frame?

This would help to understand your viewpoint.

Thanking you in advance.

 

[Option.Trader]

This is how I interpret Nifty's recent move. There are different ways to interpret the same through traditional chart patterns but looking at the long term pattern this is how I would like to decode the move. 5965-5970 is a potential 2013 top.

I agree with your viewpoint about nifty taking resistance at 5965.. even Elliots wave confirms this... but not sure on your comment about volume... average volume traded before this was pretty much the same...only neo wave , Elliots were giving early indications

 

[Sultaan]

Test of 200 day EMA is coming sooner than expected!

BTW: Where are the members who were calling this a bull market? People on TV calling this is a bull market and giving astonishing targets of 6500 and 7000 sometime back must be wiping out blood from their eyes. Stocks don't fall 30 and 40 % in a single day during a bull market. Revisit the first post of this thread to understand what is going on in this market.

wahji, 4700 to 6100 now a retracement & the bears come alive after months of starvation n death of their shorts... on a correction / retrace which also was well expected... comeon even till 50 / 63 % correction is good but 1 month of correction & you call it bear mkt already ??? also the major rally has been in large caps & previous bull mkt have been doing the same with sector rotations... small / mid caps usually participate in last leg of major bull mkts in india..

& also if we see on a longer term, our mkt is just moving sideways... after the 2003 / 07 move...:thumb:

 

[prada]

Nothing to worry, the sideways movement seen in our market since 2007 will come to an end soon and the wide range seen in the last two years will give way on the downside. Bears will take complete control of the market from here on. What bear market(1 month) are you talking about when we are already in one for the last 5 years. I am neither a permanent bull nor a permanent bear, I look at the longer term picture and try to capture the largest piece of the cake. Operation 'demolition midcap' has just begun and I expect the midcap indices to halve from its peek. Terrible terrible year on the cards for the equity markets.

wahji, 4700 to 6100 now a retracement & the bears come alive after months of starvation n death of their shorts... on a correction / retrace which also was well expected... comeon even till 50 / 63 % correction is good but 1 month of correction & you call it bear mkt already ??? also the major rally has been in large caps & previous bull mkt have been doing the same with sector rotations... small / mid caps usually participate in last leg of major bull mkts in india..

& also if we see on a longer term, our mkt is just moving sideways... after the 2003 / 07 move...:thumb: