Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[DSM]

Thanks Prada for the update. Tata Mortors was a good call. Closed short for 12K+. As per your call, it is still short.

Positional trading requires patience and clear psychology. I need to build up on both. Do post on these subjects if you can, as its as much necessary as understanding the trends as well as the technicals.

Nifty Update: Going forward 5920 spot will act as stiff resistance and we are surely heading lower. As long as 5920 is not taken out decisively on a closing basis, Nifty will make an attempt to test 200 day EMA in the next few weeks. Biggest drag on the index going forward will be the heavy weights RIL and ITC and most obviously Bankex. All the best to your trades!

 

[Arsh]

India allows 4G holders to offer voice; boost for RIL

 

[jamit_05]

Nifty Update: Going forward 5920 spot will act as stiff resistance and we are surely heading lower. As long as 5920 is not taken out decisively on a closing basis, Nifty will make an attempt to test 200 day EMA in the next few weeks. Biggest drag on the index going forward will be the heavy weights RIL and ITC and most obviously Bankex. All the best to your trades!

5920 was a 0.50 Fib level, hence the importance. Right?

 

[Arsh]

BSE Sensex falls more than 200 points; banks hit!

the 50-share Nifty slips 1.21 percent, heading towards their biggest single day fall since October 8, 2012.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/02/21/bse-sensex-banks-icici-sbi-idINDEE91K02V20130221

 

[jamit_05]

BSE Sensex falls more than 200 points; banks hit!

the 50-share Nifty slips 1.21 percent, heading towards their biggest single day fall since October 8, 2012.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/02/21/bse-sensex-banks-icici-sbi-idINDEE91K02V20130221

It should recover... they are just scaring the weak positions away... !!

 

[prada]

Expecting a pull back from these oversold levels in a couple of days time. Nifty's downside looks quite limited from current levels. Quality stocks I would play with from the long side would be Tata global, BPCL, HCL tech and HUL. Nifty's resistance now stands at 5880.

PS: The overall trend in the market is down and is expected to get worse. Since the market is extremely oversold, I expect a bounce which will only be a dead cat bounce and the smart money will only be happy to sell into it. Any move above 5970 can be used as a good entry point to accumulate shorts in both Nifty and Bank nifty. To some of our members 6500 should soon be a distant dream.

 

[Arsh]

Volatile market - Budget eyed on Thursday!

 

[sabhlok_r]

Expecting a pull back from these oversold levels in a couple of days time. Nifty's downside looks quite limited from current levels. Quality stocks I would play with from the long side would be Tata global, BPCL, HCL tech and HUL. Nifty's resistance now stands at 5880.

What levels do u see for tata global in march? can it reach 170?

 

[prada]

1000 point cut is here.

2nd January 2013, 12:29 PM

If one is patient enough, you can wait for Nifty to top out(6150-6180) before going short in Bank Nifty. In any case, IMO, bank nifty will underperform the benchmark indices from here on. 12950 should be the key level to watch for. Once nifty tops out, I expect a 1000 point cut from current level on bank nifty.

 

[prada]

Sometime back I spotted fatigue in Nifty and posted this chart as a warning to our fellow TJ members. It is quite evident looking at the brutal cut seen in the last few weeks that Nifty along with its global peers is in for an horrid time. Nifty is on its way to test the lower end of this rising channel ( 5250-5300 ) in the months ahead. Most obviously its not going to happen in a straight line but that would be only be the initial target. Pull backs should only be used as a shorting opportunity. Near term target for nifty stands at 5645( happens to be 200 day ema). 5880 seems to be the ceiling for the market in the near term. Bears can finally rejoice!

Just for those curious ones who have fun studying charts. This is where Nifty is showing signs of fatigue and does not look good at all. Bears will rule the roost in the weeks/months ahead.