Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[Stock trendy]

yes at this rate of falling 285 is due. Even a little below. 295-303 support was made in hurry so I will not be so sure of its holding power . However it being yesbank one never knows what may happen. It can go to 342 in a day because FA wise it is one of the best B2B bank in the world in its class.


@stock trendy
Hello sir. It looks like you are very much interested in quotes. I have seen a section or thread I don't rememeber called words of wisdom. Please use that space as this thread is on different topic. Thank you.

HI FRIEND I DID NOT QUOTE ANYTHING OUT OF CONTEST OR USED ANY THING OBJECTIONABLE SUBJECT/WORDS I DON'T FIND ANY REASON WHY I HAVE TO STOP IT..

 

[Anillal]

@stock trendy
This is very shameless act. You just copy and pasted a small section of this article
Index Outlook: Up against the 18,000 wall
which is written by Lokeshwarri S K here.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/features/investment-world/article3848374.ece

Try not to be like others on this forum who shamelessly copy and paste and take credit for others hardwork. Thanks.

Sensex (17,429.5)

A look at the monthly chart of the Sensex is necessary to show us where we are from a long-term perspective. The index is shackled in a wide-trading band between 15,500 and 18,500 since the beginning of 2012. This move appears to be part of the long-term correction that began from the 21,108 peak. Since the up-moves within this correction are moving close to the 61.8 per cent retracement, this could be a triangle or double three in the making. As is wont with corrective sideways moves, the pattern is not apparent until it is complete.

But the most plausible count now points towards the action getting narrower in the months ahead, probably between 16,000 and 18,000 before the index forms a long-term bottom. The index needs to record a strong close below 15,500 to negate this view.

For the short-term, we have been reiterating that there is a convergence of targets around 18,000 in the Sensex. Reversal from this zone could imply that the move from 15,748 is now complete. But the index will need to record a strong close below 17,000 to confirm this. Subsequent medium-term supports are 16,770 and 16,528.

Short-term resistances for the index will be at 17,734 and 17,973. Targets on sharp move beyond 17,972 would be 18,121 and 18,319.
Nifty (5,258.5)

The Nifty too recorded a long black candle in the weekly chart that completed an evening star pattern. This is a reversal pattern but we need confirmation from next weeks action. Short-term supports for the index are at 5,190 and 5,032. Short-term traders can hold their long positions as long as the index trades above the first support.

Reversal from this level can take the index higher to 5,367 or 5,448 in the short-term. Target on a strong move beyond 5,450 is 5,606.

The area around 5,200 is also a strong medium-term support for the Nifty. Supports on move below this level are 5,111 and 5,032.

Global cues

Global equity markets took a small step lower last week. Absence of any major news development made investors focus on Ben Bernankes speech in Jackson Hole towards the weekend. The Federal Reserve Chairmans promise that he would do all he could to support the market appeased investors. This led to expectation that there could be another round of quantitative easing in the offing.

CBOE VIX moved to 18 as risk aversion rose last week. The Dow declined to the intra-week low of 12,979 before reversing slightly on Friday. We stay with the view that short-term supports stay at 12,800 and 12,500. Short-term trend will reverse only on a close below the first support. But as explained earlier, it is possible that the current decline pulls the index all the way down to 12,500 or even 12,000 as the index moves in to a medium-term consolidation range.

The dollar index declined further and this helped gold move to $1,691 by the end of the week. Gold had short-term resistance at $1,675. Since the metal has moved beyond this hurdle, it can move on to $1,720 or $1,770 in the upcoming weeks. Medium-term trend will turn positive only on strong move beyond $1,770, paving the way for a rally to a new high.

 

[prada]

Logical Analysis of Nifty:

If one has to list out the logical reasons for a rally and a decline from current levels, I'm sure there would be only a handful of reasons for a rally and plenty of reasons for a decline from here on. The one major reason for a decline would be policy paralysis. Hopes of major policy reforms was the sole reason for us to witness the best single day surge in the benchmark indices in the history of our stock markets in 2009, post UPA II win. What happened thereafter with respect to policy reforms is only a sad tale to tell. Let alone policy reforms, this government needs to definitely take the credit for topping the charts with the number of scams attributed to its name. Stock market is the reflection of the state of the economy of a Country. If you map the state of the economy with the level of the indices , there is quite an abbe-ration and this should get corrected to its optimum levels in the months ahead. With only a year left for the UPA term to end what reforms can we expect from this govt. and that too without the parliament functioning ? With Nifty having rallied on only hopes of reform from 3600 to 6300 post UPA II win, with absolutely nil reforms in the last 3.5 years along with a pathetic growth rate, Investors are bound to gift the govt. with a nifty level of ---- ( any one's guess ). This is completely supported technically.

Those of you who claim that, market moves randomly without reasoning need to have a re-look at your in-depth understanding and functioning of the stock market and it would be better off for you'll to be gambling at casinos than being in stock markets. Nothing in life works without reasoning. Trading without analysis is as good as driving blindfolded not knowing where you are heading!

 

[saddaum]

any one knows how nifty will open tom ?????
according to my TA if market opens with gap up there will be a bounce to 5320 levels

 

[SEVEN STAR]

5360 spot is possible..

 

[saddaum]

but the main trend is down

 

[Stock trendy]

but the main trend is down

Yes trend is down 1st res. 5292 crossed then 5328 and 5358 are three maximum levels on the upside but market can tern down from the morning session it self my lower target is 5190 in between supports at 5241/5220
Next weekly close below 5190 then entire trend turn weak look towards 5050..4900
5360 upside break out ...5190 break down.. or market may get in to this 150/200 points sideways range..till middle of this month.

 

[prada]

Weekly Spot levels:

Resistance: 5275-5302- 5321- 5343
Support: 5240-5222-5190-5148

 

[prada]

Hindustan Unilever- CMP-515

HUL in the recent past has gained significantly beating the market by a fair distance. The high of 550 it made last week should remain so for the rest of the year. I expect some correction/consolidation in the stock and expect it to grind lower to 450-460 levels where it should find very good support.

 

[gauthamug]

Hi,
what is your opinion on Rpower.