Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[Bewinner]

USD bears are running for cover. Psychological level of 60 is only a matter of time. There is an inevitable correction to test 56.5-56.7 levels before the rally resumes to test 60 and may even overshoot it. Almost no one saw this coming when USD/INR was languishing at 54 odd levels.


#1261
17th April 2013, 08:35 PM

prada
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Re: Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis
In the short term I see it bouncing back to 55 odd levels. My eventual target is 60. Major support zone- 53.2-53.70 ( spot ). Domestic macro scenario is extremely poor and I don't see it improving until 2014 second half.

Quote:
Originally Posted by timepass
What are you seeing in USD/INR in short term ? I have a feeling that the govt. will do its best to ensure rupee appreciation, the various elections being near and all. Also, the retail prices of petrol being reduced is an advance indicator of rupee strength (my personal opinion).

Thanks Prada...u being active on the thread again...good call on DLF..Hat's off...:clap::clap:

 

[prada]

Nifty Update: After multiple failures at higher levels, Nifty is on its way to test the lower end of the range. Since the index looks quite oversold , bounce back to test 5810-5820 level cannot be ruled out in a day or two. In any case, once the bounce back plays out , we should see a test of 5550 level in the days/weeks ahead. All the best to your trading!

 

[prada]

Reliance Industries( CMP- 790 ) - Index heavy weight RIL , after days of consolidation is showing signs of a break down. IMO, if this weakness persists, retest of 2012 lows( 660-680) is on the cards. It looks like an excellent 'sell on rise' candidate.

 

[descartes]

In the short term I see it bouncing back to 55 odd levels. My eventual target is 60. Major support zone- 53.2-53.70 ( spot ). Domestic macro scenario is extremely poor and I don't see it improving until 2014 second half.

Hi Prada.
Any views on the INR movement from here onwards.
Also what is your take on nifty for the next 2-3 weeks. I understand that you expect it to touch 5550 but do you foresee any bounce back after today's drop. The day opened gap down whether it will run away downwards or will it close in a few days.
Thanks.

p.s. great thread. read all posts from page 1

 

[prada]

Nifty Update: Having come close to 5550, it is time to reassess the next move. I don't see exhaustion in selling as yet. Today's high becomes crucial. As long as nifty stays below today's high, I expect it to move down to 5390-5410 before any meaningful rally/short-covering sets in. USD/INR will go on to make new highs and should peak out when Nifty bottoms out close to 5400. Timing of peak/bottom will more or less sync with the respective asset classes. Interesting times ahead! All the best to your trading!

 

[prada]

Nifty Update: Having taken out 5666, we are now very sensitively poised. 5630 is the key level now. If this holds, we should a test of 5850 very quickly. All the best to your trading!

 

[moody_man]

No words on reliance...................

 

[prada]

Staying away from the stock in the near term will prove to be fruitful. If at all it moves to 860-870 range, selling interest will intensify in the stock from where it is expect have a key reversal! I still maintain my target on the stock.

Reliance Industries( CMP- 790 ) - Index heavy weight RIL , after days of consolidation is showing signs of a break down. IMO, if this weakness persists, retest of 2012 lows( 660-680) is on the cards. It looks like an excellent 'sell on rise' candidate.

 

[Option.Trader]

Staying away from the stock in the near term will prove to be fruitful. If at all it moves to 860-870 range, selling interest will intensify in the stock from where it is expect have a key reversal! I still maintain my target on the stock.

A single news can nullify all predictions... the main issue with prediction is the timing... eventually like you say it may come down to test 5400.. but the important thing is timeframe... if we test 6000 and then reach 5400 we wont be able to take a profitable trade with the predictions mentioned...
I do agree with your broad statements... but these are like weather predictions... only the weather man steps outside with an umbrella when it is sunny...

 

[moody_man]

and the story goes on.."i said that earlier remember" !!!!