Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[timepass]

The one notable thing about yesterday's bumper move - there were a lot of declining scrips in the nifty. This shows that while a lot of the index stocks had a good move, the broader markets did not participate in the rally with a similar enthusiasm. Check the advances and declines below :

edit : The above image is from TT, check the advance & declines graph from another source.

 

[saurabhjain2005]

Just to add to the views of Anillal and sevenstar just mentioned. One of the members here was thinking himselves to be an ABSOUTE technical analysis genius. He was so sure that he fixed the limit on mkt based on his technical analysis and said 5550 is the MAX TARGET Nifty can reach.

And now the person is giving all sorts theories(Inflation, Fast rising prices) which we studied in economics. And now he has started to give even upper targets. And mind you this is the same person who got fuelled up(when someone pointed to his charting methods) so much that he asked people to take technical classes before telling anything. And then there was one person(i dont know where he came from and what was his purpose) was telling me about TV dramas before putting up a challenge here. Then there was one guy who was talking about liquidity fuelled rally and so on.

The 1st person doesnt know the basic thing about trendlines. Trendlines are not designed to fix up the MAX or Min targets. They are designed to visualize current trends, and they are bound to change when a trendline is breached.

So the long story short, Mkt doesnt care abt limit fixers, short term viewers and long term viewers. It has its own way of moving and it will do so without any drama.

One Famous quote by a Mkt GR8 ed-seykota:
The aha! process lies at the heart of price change. For instance, consider the series: OTTFFSSE. What is the next letter? This puzzle creates tension until you see the first letters of the ordinal numbers one, two. Aha! you say. A lot happens during an aha. The puzzle dies and the tension dissipates. A societal aha! drives price. Read the newspapers and the news magazines during a major move. At first, no one gets why the move is happening. Theres a lot of confusion. Part of the moves way up, some people get it. At the end, everybody gets it. The tension is resolved and the move ends.
:thumb:

Markets do behave on the basis of technicals, but we should not forget that there is no formula here..We can all predict, we can go right as well as wrong...Its just a game of probabities. And we should not forget, it kills all the technicals when it becomes news based market..All the best.

People thought this govt will not do anything and so upside is limited. In 2 days flat govt has increased diesel prices and cleared FDI and Multibrand retail FDIs which it could not do in last 8 years, now this has taken all analysts offguard and they dont know where to take shelter.

 

[bpr]

Hindustan Unilever- CMP-515

HUL in the recent past has gained significantly beating the market by a fair distance. The high of 550 it made last week should remain so for the rest of the year. I expect some correction/consolidation in the stock and expect it to grind lower to 450-460 levels where it should find very good support.

prada
HUL 550 is breached again.

 

[Rish]

Don't try to predict the levels (5900 or 4800), try to trade with the existing trend.

Technical Analysts always just tell the number, they never trade.

Number (levels predicting) is not important, end of the day we should have profit in our pocket.

 

[Reggie]

Anil, at times people holding divergent views may be right and in case of trading, the reason for it is that they are looking at different timeframes.

While most traders will be looking at a trend to enter for a day, days or maximum a week or two, there are bigger players who cannot commit hundreds of millions or a few billions in this timeframe. Marc Faber and the other big players, pension funds and hedge funds can outwait the trend, and hold their positions based on the fundamental understanding of their positions.

In a fascinating book More money than Gods Tiger Fund Management a US 7 Billion dollar hedge fund using their research (site visits to mines, analyzing demand and supply) kept adding to their loss making position on Palladium for three years!!

Their analysis was that Palladium would be in short supply as the quantity that could be mined was limited but the use of the metal in catalytic converters to fix on cars (to control pollution) and in the field of dentistry would only increase.

Their bet proved them right and made enough money for them to offer to out the Russian governments entire holding of US 4 billion holding of the metal during the Russian financial crisis. This I guess would be with leverage ofcourse.

Marc Faber (Ph.D in economics at the age of 24) also known as Dr. Doom for his contrarian views is a successful long term investor who dares to go against the trend, was quoted by Mr. Prada on the long term impact of the stimulus measures, and he may be right in the longterm contrary to what we see happening now i.e markets reacting positively to the Feds action.

As a short term trader, for me to follow Marc Faber without his level of understand of the market and holding capacity, I would ofcourse be cleaned out in the time frame that I invest.

My two bits worth.

I am afraid sir I have to disagree a little with your views. I give market analysis due respect but as a trader I believe that one must accept the fact that what is out there right NOW in the market is real not what might or might not be in short or medium or long term. I think any market analysis with constant reference to these short medium long etc terms is a bit ambiguous appropriate only to the thugs on CNBC. It sounds wonderful but believe me one never has a precise idea of what is being talked about because their parameters change from person to person market to market instrument to instrument. Other thing. In one of your recent posts you wrote that you would buy shares when they are dirt cheap. It made me smile really. No offense intended but may I ask sir how would you know that they are dirt cheap? What parameters would they satisfy? Will Hindalco below 100 be cheap enough? For example at what price will you consider SBI is cheap enough to buy for medium to long term? Personally I think there is no low or high price of any scrip in the market. It is all relative. Any scrip that shows signs of strong moves in your direction is the one you entered cheap. Yesterday SBI looked costly at 1870 as it seemed waiting to go to 1790. Today after 100 points up it looks juicy now as it seems waiting to go to 2100! By the way because of their intrinsic value the precious metals are secular bullish, particularly gold. No analysis needed. Buy it whenever you feel it is cheap enough and then do not look at the charts just sit tight. Sooner or later you will be rewarded handsomely. 100% guarantee!
Anways as long as most of us in the name of development being fooled that money creation equals wealth creation I do not see India Inc as a rosy picture either. But I am a trader like so many other members here. And as a trader right now I see the market in the process of discounting the bearish view. opening above 5465+ is sign for the serious bulls to start the countdown for their buying setup. A due healthy retracement to 5450 etc. and they would jump in. May not be for investing but definitely for swing trading if on monday it does not turn out be a friday fluke which is highly unlikely after having such a huge gap up today.
I hope sir that your followers and fans would be as enlightened as you are and not take this post as undue criticism of you. And if it is not asking too much please attach the relevant charts appropriate to the analysis you make. Thanks and goodbye. Take care.

 

[prada]

@bpr, I still hold my view. This stock will correct significantly from current levels.

prada
HUL 550 is breached again.

 

[Reggie]

Dear Seven Star,

Not sure why somebody else's opinion has made you to stop contributing to this thread.

I really did enjoy your post, and hope that you reconsider your decision to quit. As Mr. Prada has himself said, discussion and contributions to his thread are welcome.

We are all here to learn and express our views. It is only when there is criticism that we think, consider, learn and grow. If we get only praises it would mean we are not challenged intellectually. Somebody's personal opinion of you is just that - a personal opinion and not a fact, so no need to take it personally.

Not sure if you will read this post, but hope you do.

Thanks for your input on this thread.

No annalists can be sure of the out come his/her analysis there is nothing wrong some of the prediction can going wrong ... i was dead sure With the level of language and the attitude of Mr. Prada that he is an extremely respect full person but it is been disturbed by biased and egoistic way of understanding the debate by some of the borders here and had led to this level of problem..any way many thanks to all have good profitable trading days..good bye to all in this thread and will never return back again

 

[prada]

@timepass, the fact is that generally midcaps and the smallcaps play a catch up once the move in the large caps are done with. This happens when the market is peaking out and when only retailers(as usual the latecomers) are present in the market.

The one notable thing about yesterday's bumper move - there were a lot of declining scrips in the nifty. This shows that while a lot of the index stocks had a good move, the broader markets did not participate in the rally with a similar enthusiasm. Check the advances and declines below :

edit : The above image is from TT, check the advance & declines graph from another source.

 

[Anillal]

The one notable thing about yesterday's bumper move - there were a lot of declining scrips in the nifty. This shows that while a lot of the index stocks had a good move, the broader markets did not participate in the rally with a similar enthusiasm. Check the advances and declines below :

edit : The above image is from TT, check the advance & declines graph from another source.

Yes you are right sir. Very keen observation. Actually if you had noticed that on friday not only nifty and banknifty premium was not matching the usual bullish enthusiasm but many other futures were also listless in showing any increase in premium. One reason could be what Ms Verma said in her post above quoting Mr Sekyota. Perhaps the 'aha' moment has yet to filter through all the sectors. . Or Josh sir might turn out to be correct in saying that it may well mean the usual news based exhaustive gapped up rally by the market makers to strip off PEs premium. Anyways I just hope that coming weeks session will set the tone of market one way or another so that the traders could have better profits than the SL eating sideways yo-yo moves.

 

[naveen_t_s]

Dear Seven Star,

Not sure why somebody else's opinion has made you to stop contributing to this thread.

I really did enjoy your post, and hope that you reconsider your decision to quit. As Mr. Prada has himself said, discussion and contributions to his thread are welcome.

We are all here to learn and express our views. It is only when there is criticism that we think, consider, learn and grow. If we get only praises it would mean we are not challenged intellectually. Somebody's personal opinion of you is just that - a personal opinion and not a fact, so no need to take it personally.

Not sure if you will read this post, but hope you do.

Thanks for your input on this thread.

I second you my friend. I seriously feel that everyone's inputs are necessary. Mr. Seven Star please don't stop posting just because someone criticized you. I read your posts regularly.

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