Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[josh1]

I feel that Nifty has gone up too fast. Next week being third week, some cooling off/side ways movement is possible. Once it crosses, 5600, it will reach anywhere between 5700 - 5800. The target on upper TL will shift as per speed. Positional traders having longs can keep stop loss below dotted TL.

Nifty has already made two gap ups. Third can be exhaustive.

Some steam is still left in this upmove.

 

[prada]

Weekly Update:

The week gone by was an action packed one especially for our markets. We expected a correction but the correction we got was a very shallow one followed by a rip roaring rally. Looking at 2 possible scenarios from this level:

First scenario could be a correction from current levels grinding back lower to 5500 before resuming the final leg of the rally. This looks like the likely scenario because we are at the top end of the channel ( refer Josh's chart )

Second scenario could be to first test 5800 and then start the correction to 5530-5550 levels.

In any case, once the correction is done with from the current levels, we should get ready for the final leg of this rally from 4770 levels which is expected to top out around 5950-6000 ( +/- 100 points). Topping out of nifty should more or less coincide with SP500 touching 1500 and US election results. One of the classic signals to understand that the market is topping out would be to look out for the market moving higher on extremely thin volumes.

(PS: At any given point serious risk to this rally would be a breach below 5348 which would then signal that we are done with this rally.)

USD/INR- At cmp-53.45 is in its final leg of the down move and a trend reversal is on the cards.

Global update: Nothing much to update on and the wait for the much elusive correction continues...

 

[SEVEN STAR]

Quote:
Originally Posted by SEVEN STAR
Sir my study says S&P500 can get to target of 1550 n that has tentatively confirmed by this P&F chart.. and DAX target 7500..i may go wrong also

your reply..7 star, IMO, I think , 1550 needs to wait until we see sub 1100 levels in the months ahead. With respect to nifty, 5500 and higher levels are possible only if 5450 is taken out. Until then , we can expect some grinding within a range.

next my post
Our market Nifty 5392 taken out 5520 is the target
Higher tops Higher bottom 4770..5350..
5050..5450...
5220 bottom if it take out 5450 next expected high can be 5720
it's too early to predict..it is just if's and but's
below message was posted yesterday and my target 5580 hit
Timing the market is extremely difficult one. Missed out a good entry point too a bad trade. There is no bottom or tops in the market..only all those chart's are past data's that gives a best probabilities but future is unknown . A trader can only control over his/her losses . Technically our market consolidated (frustrated all of us) maximum time spent between 5000 to 5400 through this year ..any close above 5450 ..next 5580..5720 the break out push will be swift to hit the targets..stop loss at 5280 will come back when the 2nd target hit. Thank u all .I was bit critic about mr.Prada professionally n as a chart annalist nothing personal have due respect for his literacy

i am not here to say anything just posting past messages had our discussion went on smoothly without any bias that could have helped many..still i stick with my stand and to my target whether it is S&P DAX or NIFTY.when Market is trending up in all technical parameters it is difficult to understand how one can think of bearishness ..
that is why i did asked you.. this on 12th..
thanks for detailed explanation technically where do you see weakness or you foresee any other reason's for the world market crash/weakness in coming days.
Is there any rules that us n uk market out/under performs other countries to fallow it.. ........

This what happens when many are pessimistic just wait for the positive news flows one after the other FDI aprroval rbi policy all will boost the market
Finaly FII's who are continually pumping in money ..need higher levels to distribute it to local public who are likely enter at the end of this rally..
any way do any one know the monkey story..will post it below..
Happy trading....

any close above 5450 ..next 5580..5720 the break out push will be swift to hit the targets..stop loss at 5280 will come back when the 2nd target hit
Yes 5720 target hit dear friends...that too as expect it was swift

 

[SEVEN STAR]

Some caution to be taken in near term as clearly mentioned by Mr Prada some pull back is the order of the day.. happy trading .. will be back later when i find proper reversal levels to be posted... Thank u all..

 

[josh1]

Weekly Update:

Looking at 2 possible scenarios from this level:

First scenario could be a correction from current levels grinding back lower to 5500 before resuming the final leg of the rally. This looks like the likely scenario because we are at the top end of the channel ( refer Josh's chart )

Second scenario could be to first test 5800 and then start the correction to 5530-5550 levels.

Prada,

I feel the second scenario is more likely. Nifty has not touched the upper TL yet.

 

[prada]

Josh, I presume you connected 4770 low to 5032 low and drew a parallel line having 5348 as the origin and extended it to the right to get the upper channel. If so, the upper end of the channel is already breached. I am unable to post the chart because my data provider (Reuters) has not yet updated the EOD data.

Prada,

I feel the second scenario is more likely. Nifty has not touched the upper TL yet.

 

[josh1]

Josh, I presume you connected 4770 low to 5032 low and drew a parallel line having 5348 as the origin and extended it to the right to get the upper channel. If so, the upper end of the channel is already breached. I am unable to post the chart because my data provider (Reuters) has not yet updated the EOD data.

Prada,

Yes. I connected 4770 low of 4th April and 5218 low of 6th Sept and drew parallel. Upper channel is not yet breached. Anyway, in TA two people can have different view on same chart.

 

[Stock trendy]

Mulayam backs Mamata, says will move resolution in Parl against FDI.. Is the latest News.
Haha.. what will happen on Monday.. Prada's ....First scenario could be a correction from current levels grinding back lower to 5500 before resuming the final leg of the rally. This looks like the likely scenario because we are at the top end of the channel

will come in handy to trade.

 

[Stock trendy]

Was anyone Long at yesterdays close and SHORT at todays close :thumb:
Any trendline limit fixers still left
Any Saas bahu Taunters there ?

There are so many postmortem reports to this post i bought this n that and sold at this and that levels funny did any one post in advance of their trade.. true they are answering your question if the answers are post trade should be either supported with their trade legal document copies..that is really appreciable or they should post in advance... go back and check when did i post that i bought 5600 CE .. that was posted on 20th at 5.33 pm before the event of huge move on 21st subsequently i did posted of my exit too ..but it was hasty early exit. no probs.. i did made some thing out of it........

I Request fellow mebers either you post your trade at your entry time or Please disclose with your documents if it is posted later on..
I am holding huge 5700 pe..position..
I request the members who have said their entry and exit can please post their trade snap short please.....

 

[ashutosh.krsrivastava]

There are so many postmortem reports to this post i bought this n that and sold at this and that levels funny did any one post in advance of their trade.. true they are answering your question if the answers are post trade should be either supported with their trade legal document copies..that is really appreciable or they should post in advance... go back and check when did i post that i bought 5600 CE .. that was posted on 20th at 5.33 pm before the event of huge move on 21st subsequently i did posted of my exit too ..but it was hasty early exit. no probs.. i did made some thing out of it........

I Request fellow mebers either you post your trade at your entry time or Please disclose with your documents if it is posted later on..
I am holding huge 5700 pe..position..
I request the members who have said their entry and exit can please post their trade snap short please.....

Posting the snapshot from my Icicidirect portfolio details here to show that I got out at 5725/-.

http://imageshack.us/a/img835/4161/icicidirect.png

On 17th I went long @ 5619/-, other trade which is not showing is that I exited and then reentered @ 5590/-.. Anyways, still on 20 th it had gone below 5590/-..
Regards..