Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[trade4putuval]

@Anilal, neither am I a prophet nor am I a priest. It is quite simple and logical to expect a correction after an extended rally. The point was when? I trust my charts and technically you need to be sound in estimating when this was going to happen. I am happy , it did prove me right. I had stuck on just a day before that 5807 was a critical level wherein one can expect a turn around. Have a sound sleep if you are holding onto short positions.

'people will ignore logic'? Does your logic mean that nifty will move non stop from 4770 to 6300 without any pause? This sounds childish! All my posts in this thread has had some logic behind it at that point of time. There is absolutely no question of non logical stuff in this thread. One is free to ignore this thread if her/she does not find sense in this thread.

Prada, Personally, I feel you should not have answered the above quote! As all knows, Silence is golden!!

Market always has its own way, just to prove that however good you try and be profitable, at the end of the day, Market is the master.

History has shown us that stones get thrown at the ones who dare to stand above the crowd! So just continue your good work! Answer the queries, provide your analysis and move on. :thumb:

Yours silent spectator!!! :cheers:

 

[Sultaan]

in short whoever is/was short will look at prada's analysis for emotional support & hope, whoever burnt his hands in short will be angry at prada & whoever was long all the way will be laughing at prada...

 

[timepass]

in short whoever is/was short will look at prada's analysis for emotional support & hope, whoever burnt his hands in short will be angry at prada & whoever was long all the way will be laughing at prada...

as with Sudoku1.

 

[trade4putuval]

U seem to be rather sick of trading markets or u mental balance might have lost composure when yesterdays flash move occured.

Y the HELL do u think i clapped for myself(ok even if i did, then??) ?? I was enjoying the short position i was in , did u get that?
...

And if want to come to logic i have much better explanations , which u may not like but in any case if u want them i will.

And by the way if no one can predict the mkt, y do u waste ur time visiting forums. Take a coin, toss it , if head take one position and if tail comes take other. SIMPLE, wats the need of all these threads?

...

By the way i m free to clap on myself :clapping: :clapping:

My God! You got a really bad temper!! Hope you might have cooled down by now!!!

For your point about using a coin, I have the following comment. Forums are for sharing ideas and learning new things! It should not be used as a tip vending machine for earning you money.

 

[SEVEN STAR]

Mr. Prada what is your potential tops for Nifty.. is it 5807 or 5850 (if i am correct) and my view is that the rally is not yet finished, may see some 100/150 points dips at some point of time. ...A rally or a fall can be straight with little bit pause in between Please remember 2008 fall from 6300 to 2200 .....4000 points in just 10 months..Market move are always unpredictable no debate on it but what do we fore see in chart is the criteria.
Your reasoning of seeing fall on a longer time frame is unaccepted..According to me any time frame should give you buy or sell signal with appropriate SL (the SL shall differ according to Time frame not predictions)
Finally Mr. Prada as you said non of us can be 100% perfect.. agreed but you are vehemently denying the fact that you went wrong some where instead of accepting/rectifying your mistakes you start to give lame excuses to support your stand. I still have esteem regards to your language and politeness in answering.

 

[Rish]

Let me clarify this for the last time. The time frame I was using just until recently was a large one which until today gives me a bearish picture about the market. Even with such a time frame I was able to pick potential tops correctly. Now I have shifted to a smaller time frame so that I could analyse the market with respect to current scenario which is what everyone needs. With respect to logic, every post of mine was based on some logic at that point of time. I was extremely bearish as I had posted in one my posts and that policy paralysis was the main reason for the same. Just a few measures were announced by the government and you saw what happened there after. This might change for the worse at any given point and the need of the hour is to be alert in picking the same.
At the end of the day, none of us can be 100 percent perfect either with our analysis or with our system. Each one of us here have the freedom to express his/her own view and there is no compulsion in being correct each time.

Instead of predicting the big levels, trade with the existing trend.

We are here to trade, not to prove our technical skill.

 

[Anillal]

in short whoever is/was short will look at prada's analysis for emotional support & hope, whoever burnt his hands in short will be angry at prada & whoever was long all the way will be laughing at prada...

Being angry at or laughing with Mr Prada is of little consequence. The main thing is if a trader looks for emotional support and hope from someone elses analysis then that trader should really start worrying about his incompetence because his account is in serious danger of getting wiped out. As far as I could check on charts Mr prada normally makes his analyses on well founded TA principles and tools which are available universally. He is also aware and said it so many times that he can be wrong like anybody else in his analysis. Therefore he is right in saying that he is no priest or prophet. But perhaps he is not aware of the fact that his silent or vocal followers might not be aware that he is aware of his own limitations. Howsoever that it may sound but the truth is unlike many of the posters I have no bone to pick with Mr Prada or any one else here on traderji. I log in onto traderji during my spare time, go through some posts here and there, respond if I feel like otherwise I just surf a bit and log off and don't bother giving a second thought as to who said what. No personal agenda of any kind. That is all there is to it as far my being a member of this forum.

 

[prada]

Weekly update:

Nifty- In one of my posts early last week I had indicated that if there was a throw over above the upper channel then we need to get ready for a correction to test the mid channel. We should be seeing a test of 5650 soon. However, looking at the way market has rallied, 5550 remains a potential target for this correction. Flash crash that happened yesterday does give us a hint that FIIs are pulling out their money at higher levels. With one incident we cannot be too judgmental but we need to be cautious. From 5550-5600 we might have another attempt to pull back to make fresh highs where I expect this run to end. To me , market(domestic and global) is nicely setting itself up for an excellent bull trap in the months ahead. 'Smart money', like to play the market either way and that's why they are called smart money. To be ahead of their thinking is where the challenge lies. Interesting times ahead!

 

[Anillal]

Weekly update:

Nifty- In one of my posts early last week I had indicated that if there was a throw over above the upper channel then we need to get ready for a correction to test the mid channel. We should be seeing a test of 5650 soon. However, looking at the way market has rallied, 5550 remains a potential target for this correction. Flash crash that happened yesterday does give us a hint that FIIs are pulling out their money at higher levels. With one incident we cannot be too judgmental but we need to be cautious. From 5550-5600 we might have another attempt to pull back to make fresh highs where I expect this run to end. To me , market(domestic and global) is nicely setting itself up for an excellent bull trap in the months ahead. 'Smart money', like to play the market either way and that's why they are called smart money. To be ahead of their thinking is where the challenge lies. Interesting times ahead!

Well said sir. Good insight into the old trick of the biggies. Incidently similar thing happened I think in April. A sharp drop and then rally back, then few days later touching the drop point. However converse sometimes also come true. Sometimes these tricks are used to get rid of deepest possible stops and/or covering all the gaps in one go. For example recently I was positionally long on a slow moving 8000 lot midcap scrip and twice they dropped the price sharply 2 to 3 Points down before rallying equal amounts upward. I was saved because I made a habit not to enter physical SL. Anyway time to say bye for now. Take care

 

[Rish]

Well said sir. Good insight into the old trick of the biggies. Incidently similar thing happened I think in April. A sharp drop and then rally back, then few days later touching the drop point. However converse sometimes also come true. Sometimes these tricks are used to get rid of deepest possible stops and/or covering all the gaps in one go. For example recently I was positionally long on a slow moving 8000 lot midcap scrip and twice they dropped the price sharply 2 to 3 Points down before rallying equal amounts upward. I was saved because I made a habit not to enter physical SL. Anyway time to say bye for now. Take care

FII's always make money. As such they are sitting on 10% return on there investment (only on rupee conversion).

When they have started buying Rupee was trading at appr.56.70, if they will sell now they will get double advantage i.e

No.1 - Rupee conversion they will get straight 10% return (no of dollars will be more)
No.2 - Profit on there investment.

If we follow Rupee movement closely, we can catch the trend.

This is my view.