Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[mkbsiva]

Where is Prada now a days? He started the thread and he is missing!!!!

He said he is travelling...

http://www.traderji.com/derivatives/72776-incisive-nifty-trend-analysis-66.html#post733806

 

[Stock trendy]

Just think nifty moving in 100 point range more than a month what can an expert say about it :rofl:.
any tom dick n harry can say break out of so n so is and the target is so n so
I guess most of the analysts are tight lipped because of this unusual trend.
today's low 5641 will hit 5941 its a wiled guess i am not a TA:thumb:

I am not trading Nifty. through this period n just watching it

 

[Bewinner]

Ohh..sorry I missed that..

 

[rajasree1]

In Daily,4Hr,1Hr and 30 min TF KS is flat and TS is pointing south. So I am expecting a range bound eastward movement within 5690 and 5632. There is a S band at 5637-5632 . If broken, TL will also be broken so Nifty will resume its southward journey towards 5350 . It is better for me to restrain me from trading before 1 st Nov.2012. The upper R band is 5725-5752. I am biased now towards the bulls and expecting an up move towards 6000 . It could be wrong. Just waiting for a trading opportunity.

Thanks.

 

[Stock trendy]

rajasree1..
No one can predict the market don't worry even if your TA goes wrong.
I appreciate your efforts. I too expect market to move up.
It can probably resume its upward journey from 5625 or 5525 i am not sure.
Most of the retail crowed (including me) Expecting very happy Diwali at around 5900.
Only the hitch here is most are going to catch the Buss in a hurry on break out of either side.
Any ways i am not going to trade Index till the burst and then the dust settles down

 

[Rish]

Nifty going long ideally if breaks above 5810 and close in weekly basis.

otherwise keeping 5810 s/l, going short is better strategy.

Let us see ! ! ! !

Nirahjan

 

[trade4putuval]

Just think nifty moving in 100 point range more than a month what can an expert say about it :rofl:.
any tom dick n harry can say break out of so n so is and the target is so n so
I guess most of the analysts are tight lipped because of this unusual trend.
today's low 5641 will hit 5941 its a wiled guess i am not a TA:thumb:

I am not trading Nifty. through this period n just watching it

Wow! There you are! What happened to your 5700 puts! You have not given any results on the same! Inspite of that, you got something to say, great!:rofl:

You should be trading nifty by now, which means you are not sure yourself about what you said!

 

[trade4putuval]

Few points from my end!

Nifty daily:
Patterns:Lower highs and lower lows. Trend still intact of downside!

50 SMA: 50 SMA is a meaningful indicator of the trend. So long as the candle is above 50 SMA, the trend is still bullish and vice versa.
So if nifty is to stick to its trend, it has to bounce back from 50 SMA. This stands at 5531.5.

Nifty weekly:
Patterns: Overbought zone in RSI. Doji formation since some time!
Not much indicator of direction here.

Ichimoku & 315 Strategy:Tenken sen not touched since some weeks. Tenken is now 5515.
But 5515 is the 15ema too. So we could see a meaningful bounce back from this price.

Nifty monthly:
Patterns: Shows hanging man formation, and possibly by EOM, it should display a doji.
This could mean that the nifty long trend has possibly come to an end. By next two months, it could target the open of the previous month candle, 5275 to form an evening star.
Personally, I do not feel that evening star will be formed.

315 Strategy: 3 EMA has to be touched by the price candle, which has not been touched, and it stands at 5556.

Summary:
All in all, I see the common price among the above patterns at 5531, and this could be a meaningful support for nifty. :thumb: And if this happens, most probable target will be to achieve the double top formation at the previous peak, 5815!

Disclaimer: Please do your own analysis before you trade!

 

[Reggie]

Thanks Putuval,

Likely scenario in my opinion, based on analysis of past data and understanding of the charts :

Since 2003, i.e over nine years, Nifty has closed at its yearly high in 7/9 times in Nov/Dec., and also closed at its yearly low in Nov./Dec. the other two times. The month of Nov/Dec is important for institutions to continue with the trend so that they can close out the books for the yearend with profits.

Since this year Nifty has been positive, we can expect it to move in the direction of the main trend and crossover its high of 5,850 before the year end.

As to how it can happen from the current scenario, in my view, in the short term, Nifty is likely to drift down lower so that longs are closed out and short positions are created. Thereafter an unexpected rally can happen to the upside and trap the bears who will be forced to buy at higher prices, driving the prices higher while trying to close their short positions.

It is likely that the market will likely touch 5850-6000 by Nov. or Dec. end, so that institutions have profits on their books, and thereafter most likely we will see a decline.

These observations are ofcourse all probabilities and as traders, we need to follow the short term trend to avoid getting hurt with rigid opinion of the markets.

Few points from my end!

Nifty daily:
Patterns:Lower highs and lower lows. Trend still intact of downside!

50 SMA: 50 SMA is a meaningful indicator of the trend. So long as the candle is above 50 SMA, the trend is still bullish and vice versa.
So if nifty is to stick to its trend, it has to bounce back from 50 SMA. This stands at 5531.5.

Nifty weekly:
Patterns: Overbought zone in RSI. Doji formation since some time!
Not much indicator of direction here.

Ichimoku & 315 Strategy:Tenken sen not touched since some weeks. Tenken is now 5515.
But 5515 is the 15ema too. So we could see a meaningful bounce back from this price.

Nifty monthly:
Patterns: Shows hanging man formation, and possibly by EOM, it should display a doji.
This could mean that the nifty long trend has possibly come to an end. By next two months, it could target the open of the previous month candle, 5275 to form an evening star.
Personally, I do not feel that evening star will be formed.

315 Strategy: 3 EMA has to be touched by the price candle, which has not been touched, and it stands at 5556.

Summary:
All in all, I see the common price among the above patterns at 5531, and this could be a meaningful support for nifty. :thumb: And if this happens, most probable target will be to achieve the double top formation at the previous peak, 5815!

Disclaimer: Please do your own analysis before you trade!

 

[trade4putuval]

Thanks Putuval,

Likely scenario in my opinion, based on analysis of past data and understanding of the charts :

Since 2003, i.e over nine years, Nifty has closed at its yearly high in 7/9 times in Nov/Dec., and also closed at its yearly low in Nov./Dec. the other two times. The month of Nov/Dec is important for institutions to continue with the trend so that they can close out the books for the yearend with profits.

...

These observations are ofcourse all probabilities and as traders, we need to follow the short term trend to avoid getting hurt with rigid opinion of the markets.

I agree with you, but if you notice the past few years, november has a long downtrend, followed by a little uptrend in the month of December. So overall, it looked green by December.

But then you have provided a good information, which can be utilized in my analysis.:thumb: Thanks!