Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[trade4putuval]

Nifty weekly:
Patterns: Overbought zone in RSI. Doji formation since some time!
Not much indicator of direction here.

Ichimoku & 315 Strategy:Tenken sen not touched since some weeks. Tenken is now 5515.
But 5515 is the 15ema too. So we could see a meaningful bounce back from this price.

Well, this time I am right! Made some decent profit too!

Nifty weekly:
But will nifty touch 5531? There is no respite to weekly RSI, since it is still in the overbought zone. But 50 SMA in daily is 5541. So unless there is a bearish undertone to nifty, this support will stand and nifty should bounce back from here.

Few points from my end!

Nifty daily:
Patterns:Lower highs and lower lows. Trend still intact of downside!

50 SMA: 50 SMA is a meaningful indicator of the trend. So long as the candle is above 50 SMA, the trend is still bullish and vice versa.
So if nifty is to stick to its trend, it has to bounce back from 50 SMA. This stands at 5531.5.

Nifty daily:
There is a cloud top at 5476, which indicates a strong support for nifty to bounce back. If 5531 is broken, we could see 5476, which also stops at the support line drawn from the previous lows of the nifty wave.

Nifty monthly:
Patterns: Shows hanging man formation, and possibly by EOM, it should display a doji.
This could mean that the nifty long trend has possibly come to an end. By next two months, it could target the open of the previous month candle, 5275 to form an evening star.
Personally, I do not feel that evening star will be formed.

315 Strategy: 3 EMA has to be touched by the price candle, which has not been touched, and it stands at 5556.

Nifty monthly:
The candle more or less looks like a hanging man. Tomorrow is an important day, being the month end. This will determine the shape of the candle. For a perfect hanging man, maybe we will see nifty close near 5625.
OR
If not a hanging man, it could be a long red candle that could touch a low of 5476 and close near the monthly 3ema, i.e. 5532 (taking into account, weekly and daily analysis).
OR
If market has taken support at 50 sma, there could be a good bounce from here for nifty to close at 5686 and become a doji!

Will decide whether to enter long at 5530 or 5470, taking into consideration the 30 mins chart! Let's see!

 

[trade4putuval]

Weekly update-

...

Decisive breach below 5630 should confirm the break down with a possibility of extending all the way down to 5450-5500.
...

USD/INR- As I am typing, is at a kissing distance from my target of 54. This could extend upto 54.35 before a shallow correction sets in.

...

P.S: I am again travelling from tomorrow for 10 days and would not be in a position to post next week's update.

Hope you had a nice vacation! Both the targets are very near. :thumb:

• Nifty is near 5500
• USD/INR is near 54.35 (Low made of 54.05 as shown in CNBC).

Awaiting your inputs on the same.
Query:
Is it time to trade USD/INR with target of 51 or has RBI action yesterday reduced its possibility?

 

[prada]

Yes the trend in Nifty is clearly down and any dead cat bounce is only going to get sold into.
With respect to USD/INR, today's high was 54.20 and I still expect it to take out 54.32-54.35 before some correction sets in. 51 is a far cry!
Globally, relief rallies seen will be short lived.
Will post an update this week end.

Hope you had a nice vacation! Both the targets are very near. :thumb:

• Nifty is near 5500
• USD/INR is near 54.35 (Low made of 54.05 as shown in CNBC).

Awaiting your inputs on the same.
Query:
Is it time to trade USD/INR with target of 51 or has RBI action yesterday reduced its possibility?

 

[Stock trendy]

dead cat bounce is only going to get sold into.
Sir ..Sold into up to what levels do you expect nifty may go down as per your TA.
I think market to bottom out in this week or early next week around 5500 and then bounce strongly towards 5900 by next week 400 points rally.:thumb:
All selling till now is in very low volume..

 

[trade4putuval]

Nifty monthly:
The candle more or less looks like a hanging man. Tomorrow is an important day, being the month end. This will determine the shape of the candle. For a perfect hanging man, maybe we will see nifty close near 5625.
OR
If not a hanging man, it could be a long red candle that could touch a low of 5476 and close near the monthly 3ema, i.e. 5532 (taking into account, weekly and daily analysis).
OR
If market has taken support at 50 sma, there could be a good bounce from here for nifty to close at 5686 and become a doji!

Will decide whether to enter long at 5530 or 5470, taking into consideration the 30 mins chart! Let's see!

Nifty monthly:
Well, it did not end a perfect hanging man! But the first option did work out!

Nifty weekly:
Also, in weekly, the RSI still shows overbought. LHLL (Lower high lower low) still holds. Kijun is flat indicating the price action has to approach tenken sen (5515).

Nifty daily:
Very difficult to judge! Keeping stop of 5654, one can go short for target of 5515.

 

[megapixel]

dead cat bounce is only going to get sold into.
Sir ..Sold into up to what levels do you expect nifty may go down as per your TA.
I think market to bottom out in this week or early next week around 5500 and then bounce strongly towards 5900 by next week 400 points rally.:thumb:
All selling till now is in very low volume..

buddy ..holding 5700 NOV CALL ... suffering losses now ..... not exiting position though...expecting profit jump by Diwali .

 

[Bewinner]

For NF 5625 is the level to watch out...if it is broken then support level is 5580-5590...which is really very hard to break at this point of time....As mkt/Indian govt will try to give a "Feel Good" factor in diwali...

 

[Stock trendy]

buddy ..holding 5700 NOV CALL ... suffering losses now ..... not exiting position though...expecting profit jump by Diwali .

Hi Friend..I do trade option but never hold more than a day or two and always ride on the trend.Preferable time i consider is starting of 2nd week of the contract or just 4/5 days before expiry..can get options at reasonable price...Purely for a day or Two n my SL is 10 to 15 Points from my entry
Earlier i did the same mistakes of holding it for longer period hoping market might go towards my expected line..and that never happens.
Nearly 15 trading days have passed i did not made a single trade till now in Index.. will post when i take up my trade
Trade safe and Take care of your capital.:thumb:

 

[SexyTrader]

I feel the markets will go down drastically....coz it feels like that :thumb:

I feel in this month, it could even touch 5400 or so....somehow feels that way!

 

[naveen_t_s]

I hope everyone thinks like that and start selling..

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