Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[a1b1trader]

Hi folks

Tomorrow gap up, may be 50 points
Just check SGX Nifty and US indices

 

[philosuffer]

Hello Traders, First post here. I am a trader from US with 3 years experience in trading equities and options. I am looking to trade Indian markets and never traded them before. Thank you for this useful forum and thread.

S&P 500 is up 150 points in US at the moment, which means the Indian markets would likely gap up when they open. I am looking to start with trading NIFTY options as they seem to be most liquid. I feel world markets would turn bearish for rest of the year. So, I am thinking of buying NIFTY 5800 strike put options within 2 hours from open (after the gap up is digested).

Any thoughts or advice?

Thanks.

 

[trade4putuval]

Nifty monthly:
Nifty daily:
Very difficult to judge! Keeping stop of 5654, one can go short for target of 5515.

Don't know why! Nifty did not have enough power to cross 5650.
If you notice, for the past hour, it was hovering near that range. Today I cannot say anything on nifty, maybe tomorrow!

By the way, check out the following stocks:

• IDFC: Many tops in daily and weekly. Daily tenken sen stands at 159. This could be first target.
• Bajaj Auto: Double top or many tops in daily, weekly and monthly. Daily tenken sen stands at 1785. This could be first target.

Keeping fingers crossed!

 

[Stock trendy]

dead cat bounce is only going to get sold into.
Sir ..Sold into up to what levels do you expect nifty may go down as per your TA.
I think market to bottom out in this week or early next week around 5500 and then bounce strongly towards 5900 by next week 400 points rally.:thumb:
All selling till now is in very low volume..

HAHA Ref. my earlier posts before US market opened ..
it is too wrong to say just us or uk markets went up our market too will
fallow it.. One thing what i fallow is where our market price takes supports on one or two days that is 5580 rest leave to the market to do the work
That is how i trade no TA or any Indicators.. yet i have not taken any position in index still
Just watch 5725 NF.. if it is crossed next stop is at 5910..:thumb:
Yes the dead Cat is getting life and likely to fly over on top........:rofl:

 

[philosuffer]

Thanks for the ideas Trade4putuval.

IDFC and Bajaj Auto both seem to be in strong up trend. May be wait till Monday if you want to short them. If I have to choose, I would go with shorting IDFC. Take a look at Bajaj auto 5 year chart, it is always making lower lows and higher highs. Strong uptrend.

I am thinking to wait till Monday to short NIFTY. Friday would see some green and no point in holding options over the weekend with theta burning (time decay).

 

[trade4putuval]

Don't know why! Nifty did not have enough power to cross 5650.
If you notice, for the past hour, it was hovering near that range. Today I cannot say anything on nifty, maybe tomorrow!

By the way, check out the following stocks:

• IDFC: Many tops in daily and weekly. Daily tenken sen stands at 159. This could be first target.
• Bajaj Auto: Double top or many tops in daily, weekly and monthly. Daily tenken sen stands at 1785. This could be first target.

Keeping fingers crossed!

I noticed one thing today morning in daily charts. Wednesday candle and thursday candle combined forms a big white candle and it looks like a bullish piercing pattern (Opening below close of previous candle and closing below open of previous candle). This could suggest a short-term turn around!

By the way, the SGX nifty is 35 points from yesterday's close. Maybe I am late in finding the indication! Let's see!

 

[trade4putuval]

Thanks for the ideas Trade4putuval.

Take a look at Bajaj auto 5 year chart, it is always making lower lows and higher highs. Strong uptrend.

I wish to say something about the strong uptrend you mentioned in your message. You miss one thing in the chart. The lower low and lower highs are not continuous, it is a wave. Everytime a higher peak is made, it had fallen to a low, which is always higher than the previous low.

Let me provide the highs and lows in the daily chart of 5 years
24th Nov 2010 - High 1665 (Coincides with weekly high- RSI) (Also a monthly wave high)
1st Feb 2011 - Low 1223 (Coincides with weekly low - RSI)
28th Oct 2011 - High 1824 (Coincides with weekly high - RSI) (Also a monthly wave high)
16th Jan 2012 - Low 1440 (Not exactly low, RSI - 36.8)
29th Feb 2012 - High 1843 (Not exactly high, RSI - 55) (Also a monthly wave high)
19th July 2012 - Low 1506 (Not exactly low, RSI - 35)
28th Sept 2012 - High 1850 (Coincides with weekly high- RSI), Yesterday - High 1853 (Coincides with weekly high - RSI) (Looks like a monthly wave high again)

Where is the low yet? If Bajaj breaks the strong resistance denoted by the multiple tops, it means the stock has a break-out and will continue moving up. But I see this stock as overheated and has very little momentum left in it. So it has to cool a little before taking off again, atleast till RSI reaches 50.

At the moment, I am focusing on daily tenken of 1785, the weekly tenken stands at 1727. These are the short term targets.
50 SMA in daily stands at 1742, which decides whether the stock will enter bearish phase or bullish phase.

 

[prada]

There was a visible change in the trend yesterday(broader market performing well) which makes me change my mind with respect to the near term view on the markets. We might be in the final leg of the rally which can take Nifty to 5950-6000 before it fizzles out. First hurdle comes in at 5730-5750. However, we should be open to one last attempt to have a test below 5630 before pulling back and moving higher. Let's see how this goes.
Threat to this view would be a breach below recent low of 5583.

 

[philosuffer]

Sorry, I meant to say higher lows and higher highs (which is a bullish pattern) regarding Bajaj Auto. It seemed to have broken the resistance a bit already.

Aurobindo Pharma (AUROPHARMA)

I Bought 1.5 lakh worth of AUROPHARMA at 169 rs per share. First trade on Indian markets.

This looks pretty strong and expecting a run up to 182 in a couple of days. One can buy call options but I went with the regular equity.

 

[trade4putuval]

Sorry, I meant to say higher lows and higher highs (which is a bullish pattern) regarding Bajaj Auto. It seemed to have broken the resistance a bit already.

Aurobindo Pharma (AUROPHARMA)

I Bought 1.5 lakh worth of AUROPHARMA at 169 rs per share. First trade on Indian markets.

This looks pretty strong and expecting a run up to 182 in a couple of days. One can buy call options but I went with the regular equity.

Yes, but it depends on the closing rate of the day! Nice day!