Indian Trading League / SAMCO

[deba72]

Looks good so far. The top 3 jumped from +11% to 28%.
Tough crowd, will be worth competing.

But it's not the same three..I think..

 

[onlinegtrash]

A rough guide,

Employ 64 people. Find a FNO stock that regularly moves 8-10% in a month. Make half the people buy atm puts and half of them atm calls (or futures). I guess you people know the drill.

Theres a good chance that after 6 months, 1 of them will be up 1000%. Of course, the stock needs to move so much that half of them face a margin call and the other half can square off. 1000% should be good enough for first place maybe.

Retail traders may not be able to pull it off. But it doesnt stop the company itself. Just a thought. And it earns them a lot of customers.

There is only one minor flaw this theory can work for 3 days... some account may show 1000% win... but if you repeat it day in and day out for 6 months it's guaranteed all account will go to zero, law of large numbers catches up.

 

[cinderblock]

There is only one minor flaw this theory can work for 3 days... some account may show 1000% win... but if you repeat it day in and day out for 6 months it's guaranteed all account will go to zero, law of large numbers catches up.

Start of series 32 ppl short, 32 long. Hold till one group gains 8-10%, assuming it moves that much. Everyone squares off once either of the group reaches margin call.

Now 32 people who are winners in month 1 wait for month 2. Divide these in 2 groups of 16 each and repeat.

And so on...

At the end of 6 months there will be 1 person who has been a winner in all 6 series

 

[cinderblock]

Considering contract size of 2.5L and margin of 40k, a 8% move every month in either direction translates to 50% return on capital employed.

The person winning all 6 series will multiply his capital 11 times or 1000% return by contnuously reinvesting all capital.

If instead you employ 128 people and run the strategy for 7 months, the winner will have made 1600% return and so on.

The point is it's not impossible for the company to run 128 accounts and keep the prize money

Not that it is doing so!

 

[onlinegtrash]

Start of series 32 ppl short, 32 long. Hold till one group gains 8-10%, assuming it moves that much. Everyone squares off once either of the group reaches margin call.

Now 32 people who are winners in month 1 wait for month 2. Divide these in 2 groups of 16 each and repeat.

And so on...

At the end of 6 months there will be 1 person who has been a winner in all 6 series

still won't work

This assumes month after month for 6 months a single account is going to get into winning streak. Sure streaks occur but to capture such a streak you need thousands of user accounts can't do with 64 accounts, if you are randomly throwing darts.

This example works for coin toss experiments where one half the group is guaranteed to win for every toss, in our case there is NO such guarantee, lets say in the second month what if all 32 accounts enter into a draw down and each recover their draw downs for next 3-5 months? Remember most traders who lost their money in first year of trading are still trying to recover it after 5 to 10+ years! Okay what if this dreadful draw down happens in 3rd, 4th, or 5th month?

What do you think the chances of reaping 8-10% winning streak for 6 months with any of 64 accounts provided 90% of those account are statistically doomed as you are playing without edge?

Atleast in coin toss win probability is 50% and expectancy can be decent if you win to loss ratio is big enough.

Imagine you are throwing 64 darts from 100 meters into a circle of 1 meter diameter?
You think easily 32 darts will get into this 1 meter circle.... and you think, one lucky dart is going to get into circle for 6 times...

Chances are so good all your 64 darts won't make 8-10% in first month itself
(Remember out of 35000 zerodha customers only few hundred people managed to break even or something similar I don't remember the exact stat!).

 

[cinderblock]

Hence the assumption in my first post to find a stock that moves 8% on a regular basis. if not find amother which moves 6% (900 % at 7 months)

at the end of 6 months someone will be a winner.

Also, in the second month or in whichever month how can all accounts have a drawdown. If there's a margin call for the long group the short group close their position with profit and vice versa

 

[Serious_Trader]

Start of series 32 ppl short, 32 long. Hold till one group gains 8-10%, assuming it moves that much. Everyone squares off once either of the group reaches margin call.

Now 32 people who are winners in month 1 wait for month 2. Divide these in 2 groups of 16 each and repeat.

And so on...

At the end of 6 months there will be 1 person who has been a winner in all 6 series

Master plan ..............Zerodha Shutter Down Crowd.in for illegal activaty.............Next 100% ITL........:lol:

 

[cinderblock]

Master plan ..............Zerodha Shutter Down Crowd.in.............Next 100% ITL........:lol:

Why shutter down for Zerodha? It doesn't make any difference to them. Actually neither does it make a difference to samco. All the plan ensures is that the prize money stays with the company while running a neutral strategy overall.

 

[motu1985]

But it's not the same three..I think..

As the contract expiry nears, these winning figures would only be on the higher side. Even though, in most cases the winners would be different. That's just the nature of trading near expiry.

 

[motu1985]

A rough guide,

Employ 64 people. Find a FNO stock that regularly moves 8-10% in a month. Make half the people buy atm puts and half of them atm calls (or futures). I guess you people know the drill.

Theres a good chance that after 6 months, 1 of them will be up 1000%. Of course, the stock needs to move so much that half of them face a margin call and the other half can square off. 1000% should be good enough for first place maybe.

Retail traders may not be able to pull it off. But it doesnt stop the company itself. Just a thought. And it earns them a lot of customers.

This is a profitable strategy. However, this would mean that 63/64 accounts would have to blow up for a winner to emerge with near 1000% returns. Which would mean an outgo of Rs 16 lacs (63*25,000). On top of this the brokerage would have to be absolutely positive that no other participant gets near this winning percentage or their plans would go to waste.

Aditionally, it would be difficult to find the same stock that is consistently going to be moving 8-10% in the FnO segment on a monthly basis.