Learning to catch High Probability Breakouts

[ethan hunt]

Thanks, if you dig deep enough you will find many examples of intraday trades.

Currently Forum rules prohibit posting trades.

Check this one and again search this thread deep ,

http://www.traderji.com/general-tra...6368-general-trading-chat-10.html#post1089900

Anyways we traders don't have to prove anything to anyone except ourselves.

Best of Luck to you for your trading.

Not talking of posting trades etc. My tension is to track & catch the breakouts as they happen. Keep on missing one while watching the others & evenytually it is 0 / 0.
Some kinda alert system is required.
It is pathetic that in NEST u have to feed alerts everyday. U can export but cant import it the next day, great insight of NEST designer!!!

 

[indianbank]

July 22 breakouts Bulls
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charts are for educational purpose...

 

[indianbank]

Typical bear Cairn India
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Educational purpose only.... those who are new to trading dont take trades without knowing risk

 

[jagankris]

Sunpharma

Daily Chart of Sunpharma

Sunpharma daily chart showing huge gaps , dangerous for investors who are loosing a lot of money.

Today gaping down and closing @ -15% (-143)

Imagine if you have are afraid of those stocks

Dear Anil Trivedi,Amit,

I am afraid of gaps which goes against the trend and especially these kind of huge gaps.
Say in case of Sun Pharma - 15% down - but stock didn't show any signs of weakness.
And obviously smart money wouldn't be gaping down against their own positions.

So technically are there any ways to foresee such unexpected huge gaps - against trend ?

Request to share your thoughts.
Thanks in advance.

 

[amitrandive]

Not talking of posting trades etc. My tension is to track & catch the breakouts as they happen. Keep on missing one while watching the others & evenytually it is 0 / 0.
Some kinda alert system is required.
It is pathetic that in NEST u have to feed alerts everyday. U can export but cant import it the next day, great insight of NEST designer!!!

If you are a full time trader, you need to be subscribed to a Professional charting package like Amibroker,Metastock,Esignal ,etc.

We cannot keep watch on all NSE or BSE stocks.We need to keep our watchlist small like F&O stocks ,Nifty Stocks, Bank stocks ,etc.

Physically it is impossible to catch all the breakouts in all the stocks.But in a small list of say around 20-30 stocks we can easily study the charts, mark the levels and be ready the next day to trade.

Amibroker, Metastock with live data feeds give us scanning abilities.

With a simple scanner such as breaking previous day high or low , we can catch many breakouts as they happen in Intraday itself.

 

[amitrandive]

Dear Anil Trivedi,Amit,

I am afraid of gaps which goes against the trend and especially these kind of huge gaps.
Say in case of Sun Pharma - 15% down - but stock didn't show any signs of weakness.
And obviously smart money wouldn't be gaping down against their own positions.

So technically are there any ways to foresee such unexpected huge gaps - against trend ?

Request to share your thoughts.
Thanks in advance.

Jaganji

This is similar to asking today what the stock would do tomorrow.

All our analysis deals with probabilities.Yes many may say such about gaps prediction is possible.

If this was really possible , then those people would have financially retired by now.

Gaps happen due to overnight events,news,earnings,etc and there is no way to predict Gaps.

Seniors may correct me in this regard.

 

[indianbank]

Dear Anil Trivedi,Amit,

I am afraid of gaps which goes against the trend

Coin having two sides Jagan sir,

Gaps Againt us and Gaps favouring us .. 50:50 chance... so be cool

When UPA won 2009 election... Market was up by 24% weekly....

 

[jagankris]

Jaganji

This is similar to asking today what the stock would do tomorrow.

All our analysis deals with probabilities.Yes many may say such about gaps prediction is possible.

If this was really possible , then those people would have financially retired by now.

Gaps happen due to overnight events,news,earnings,etc and there is no way to predict Gaps.

Seniors may correct me in this regard.

Dear Amit,

The question is very different from what the stock will do tomorrow.

The question is based on the assumption that smart money has build their shorts while the trend is intact ?
And are there any ways in TA giving clues in this regard.

I will wait for Anil Trivedi's/other experts views.

And regarding "All our analysis deals with probabilities" - just my views - Not all - and I have kept this open and I haven''t come to a definite conclusion on this.It varies/differs and depends / I don't believe in what ever I read (especially in Trading) before doing analysis/research to the fullest satisfaction possible for myself to come to a conclusion.

 

[jagankris]

Coin having two sides Jagan sir,

Gaps Againt us and Gaps favouring us .. 50:50 chance... so be cool

When UPA won 2009 election... Market was up by 24% weekly....

Dear Indian Bank,

Normal gaps are fine abnormal(not anticipated events) is what I am worried.

I like politics and I am keen observer of politics.And my track record on election trades were good..

I may not be correct in predicting market moves always but was always correct in predicting election results.

Three elections -2004,2009,2014 - I took directional trades in the right direction and made money.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Dear Anil Trivedi,Amit,

I am afraid of gaps which goes against the trend and especially these kind of huge gaps.
Say in case of Sun Pharma - 15% down - but stock didn't show any signs of weakness.
And obviously smart money wouldn't be gaping down against their own positions.

So technically are there any ways to foresee such unexpected huge gaps - against trend ?

Request to share your thoughts.
Thanks in advance.

Dear Jaganji,
Gaps signifies important ‘event’ happened and it’s a reaction of that event that led to price opened significantly up or down.
Technically exhaustion gaps can be expected in strong trend, but cant be predicted when it will occur. Whenever stock run nonstop for many weeks experts say about 18weeks or more, such stocks first build climaxes, with gapup opening and huge volumes. These gaps are in final stage of stock cycle and called exhaustion gaps. It signified exhaustion of the trend.
Gap does have a role in Technical forecasting, but you cant predict gaps. Now the gap occurring near to base formation for accumulation/distribution are called as breakaway gaps. So they should occur at start of the trend or in the middle areas of price trend where price often consolidates for few days or so.
Regarding sunpharma, one of my critic who I really admire, is out of stock when sunpharma appeared in news. Specially Sanghvi beating ambani in wealth…such type of news….He just got recent quarters results and seen EPS falling…PAT falling…And tell you what the guy sold at 1050 in april…
One fine day, sun opened gap down, with largest volume ever in its history…and this made me understand…yes there are signs of weakness building settling in…In may stock tried to fill the gap but failed…again it made second gap down and filled the same with almost no volume comparison as seen on first gap…
So in short I don’t understand your rationale for going long on this stock…let it first mark a bottom…it will build base…until it’s a ‘V’ shaped recovery…let the volume comes in…
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Regards...