Long or Short Opinion
- Thread starter rajputz
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It has been extremely range bound market. It closed a couple of times with possible BO. But market could not follow up on the 2nd day. At the same time, we have not broken the support region of 5200-5230 NF zone. Only option writers would be enjoying the most. We are still holding support. We have to see how market behaves in next a couple of days. Today both side option added huge OI (normal on Wednesday), will they keep market range bound for some more days?
Ruanakji do you when are the IIP numbers coming out. I think we will have very bad quarters on a few tech companies and also the IIP numbers according to me have peaked out last month. I think we will see a fall in numbers and that would trigger the decline. I was reading a chart comparison of IIP numbers from 2005-2010 and the graph showed last month was the best ever and I doubt we will repeat it that according to me was a black swan event that growth in IIP was so high month on month even though previous month was around 13%.
Year or Year I am not so sure that can still be great as we were in recovery mode but soon that will change YoY will start looking bad too.
Year or Year I am not so sure that can still be great as we were in recovery mode but soon that will change YoY will start looking bad too.
I think simple trader might be right about the rally not sure about 200 points because there is no data out in US today so the sentiments would be slightly bullish due to upcoming earnings season. Although not expecting a massive rally because I think major companies wont have that good a balance sheet here in India or US because the metal prices in the past quarter has fallen off the cliff and currencies have been volatile that impacts a lot on businesses as a lot of hedging cost. I expected earnings to be stellar but not so sure now.
Nimish, to be very honest, I don't emphasize too much on any economic data. Stock markets are ahead by 6-8 months in terms of discounting the economic feel. If this is true (which I feel is) then markets have already discounted what is coming out today or tomorrow. The numbers good or bad can give a knee jerk reaction and hence markets may react, but for me that is as equivalent to the daily noise we see in the markets. I lack the skills to profit from such things, and hence I don't track this.
Even if the IIP numbers are down, I will consider it as a mere retracement of the strong numbers posted earlier. This is similar to what price does. Hence it will not bother me. In 2008 - early 2009, every set of data was extremely bad, still the markets begun rallying. This was because markets were discounting 6-8 months of forward looking economy. Now that we are in that period, look at the previous month IIP numbers, they were so good. This is what was being discounted 8 months back. Hope you get my point.
Tc
Even if the IIP numbers are down, I will consider it as a mere retracement of the strong numbers posted earlier. This is similar to what price does. Hence it will not bother me. In 2008 - early 2009, every set of data was extremely bad, still the markets begun rallying. This was because markets were discounting 6-8 months of forward looking economy. Now that we are in that period, look at the previous month IIP numbers, they were so good. This is what was being discounted 8 months back. Hope you get my point.
Tc
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