Long or Short Opinion

[nimish_rulz]

Nimish, to be very honest, I don't emphasize too much on any economic data. Stock markets are ahead by 6-8 months in terms of discounting the economic feel. If this is true (which I feel is) then markets have already discounted what is coming out today or tomorrow. The numbers good or bad can give a knee jerk reaction and hence markets may react, but for me that is as equivalent to the daily noise we see in the markets. I lack the skills to profit from such things, and hence I don't track this.

Even if the IIP numbers are down, I will consider it as a mere retracement of the strong numbers posted earlier. This is similar to what price does. Hence it will not bother me. In 2008 - early 2009, every set of data was extremely bad, still the markets begun rallying. This was because markets were discounting 6-8 months of forward looking economy. Now that we are in that period, look at the previous month IIP numbers, they were so good. This is what was being discounted 8 months back. Hope you get my point.

Tc

Sirji thanks for the explanation. I understand what you are saying. What I was trying to say is that market needs a trigger to go up and go down. While smart money has the clue 6-8 months early than the news the retail investor start doing things on the actual news flow. So what I mean was once the news comes in and if its bad this might trigger the down move. However, the smart money knew this since january that market has peaked(6 months before acutal economic data as u suggested) hence the market has failed to break that 5300 level so many times in this past 6 months and they are distributing their holdings at these levels. Everyone sees that FIIs bought so much but no1 sees this that in May this year we witnessed the biggest long unwinding in all the funds around the world just in India 6500 crores of shares were sold by FIIs. DIIs have been unwinding everday for last month or so at these levels.
Volumes shrinking etc. I am not a bear or a bull but I think fundamentally for now our economy peaked last month and now we will see a leg lower like any other markets.

Just my view.

 

[praveen taneja]

No brother not so soon as there is good amount of money in insurance companies and MF hands and also NPS every mnth parking huge money in stock market all selling by FII would be taken in lighter mood this time

 

[crown]

No brother not so soon as there is good amount of money in insurance companies and MF hands and also NPS every mnth parking huge money in stock market all selling by FII would be taken in lighter mood this time

thanks praveen bhai
I have also heard this thing from India bulls; people over there (india bulls) are suggesting metal and banking scripts to consider for entering long.

 

[rajputz]

Tatamotors is looking weak over both daily and weekly charts. Price managed to close below daily support of 764, and more downside is expected. Momentum indicator CCI is also showing sign of momentum change. It has gone negative from positive. Oscillators are also falling for downward move.

What a fall today...almost 2 percent...achieved my targets...

 

[simple_trader]

Hi simple_trader , according to your theory it should come down before rising again as it was severely oversold from 5th to 6th June on hourly chart ?Could you Please explain .

Hi rajeabc,

Look at the chart, 60 mins TF it is over sold around 182 future around. Also look at it sustained more than 3-4 hours, then short covering came. That's why I said short covering should not have surprised you. The stock is in up trend, it can be buying as well. Time will tell.

Happy trading!

 

[simple_trader]

Just a gut feel, Dow could rally 200 points today.

My Gut feel has been proved right 1/2 now. Dow scored century!

Happy trading!

 

[nimish_rulz]

My Gut feel has been proved right 1/2 now. Dow scored century!

Happy trading!

I agreed with you on a rally in my previous post but I still doubt double century. We have yesterdays resistance at 9858. I think we will retreat from there.

 

[simple_trader]

I agreed with you on a rally in my previous post but I still doubt double century. We have yesterdays resistance at 9858. I think we will retreat from there.

Yes technically speaking resistance 9860-80 region dow will be over bought. But it would be short covering rally. I guess, it will blast more up. I could be wrong!

 

[nimish_rulz]

Yes technically speaking resistance 9860-80 region dow will be over bought. But it would be short covering rally. I guess, it will blast more up. I could be wrong!

Yes you maybe right. I have had amazing 24hrs on the Dow look at my post yesterday about the gap closure worked perfectly. Long today total more than 200 points. Btw going short now @ 9860 stop loss is 9885.

 

[rajeabc]

My Gut feel has been proved right 1/2 now. Dow scored century!

Happy trading!

nice gut feel