Long or Short Opinion

[AW10]

Ruanakji do you when are the IIP numbers coming out. I think we will have very bad quarters on a few tech companies and also the IIP numbers according to me have peaked out last month. I think we will see a fall in numbers and that would trigger the decline. I was reading a chart comparison of IIP numbers from 2005-2010 and the graph showed last month was the best ever and I doubt we will repeat it that according to me was a black swan event that growth in IIP was so high month on month even though previous month was around 13%.
Year or Year I am not so sure that can still be great as we were in recovery mode but soon that will change YoY will start looking bad too.

Nimish, IIP for May-2010 is due on 12/July.
Highest IIP so far was 347 given in March.. and it came down to 316.7 in April.
Since december when number was 331.. it is hovering around 316 to 347 range.. and so is the market..
Last May's number was 280 or so.. seasonaly, may has better IIP then april and june.. so I am expecting a number above 331 i.e. cool 16/17% yoy jump again.. lets see.

I agree with Raunak that mkt discounts the economy by 6 to 8 months.. but we all know that mkt is driven by emotions of people which goes crazy at time and forget the basics. That's when these economic indicators give hidden signal well before people really realise that they were on the wrong side.

Fundamentally,many factors are showing divergence with mkt, So at most, we can be cautious in such diverging environment. And wait for market +economy to converge. The divergence can't last long.. But trading on fundamental's alone could be dangrous cause some time the divergence can last for few months..

the tight rangebound price for extend period of time is reminding me of Jan-10 where before steep fall, mkt was in 52-5300 range for 10/12 days. Lets see which side the range breaks this time.. and I am sure then media will be able to justify the trigger.
We are in result season so there will be enough reasons.

Happy Trading what u see.

 

[rajeabc]

Hi rajeabc,

Look at the chart, 60 mins TF it is over sold around 182 future around. Also look at it sustained more than 3-4 hours, then short covering came. That's why I said short covering should not have surprised you. The stock is in up trend, it can be buying as well. Time will tell.

Happy trading!

Thanks Simple_Trader ,

Lets see how will it do tomorrow . I except it to fall and after RNRL episode people think that all good news are out in RCom-GTL deal only bad news is left so it might give a nice fall once some thing comes up. BUT I know it can't be a base for trading.

 

[aditya14]

200+ on dow is possible today and anyways the relief rally(CNBC will parrot this) has started and will give good gains for people who didn`t go shorttt hahahahaha

 

[nimish_rulz]

Nimish, IIP for May-2010 is due on 12/July.
Highest IIP so far was 347 given in March.. and it came down to 316.7 in April.
Since december when number was 331.. it is hovering around 316 to 347 range.. and so is the market..
Last May's number was 280 or so.. seasonaly, may has better IIP then april and june.. so I am expecting a number above 331 i.e. cool 16/17% yoy jump again.. lets see.

I agree with Raunak that mkt discounts the economy by 6 to 8 months.. but we all know that mkt is driven by emotions of people which goes crazy at time and forget the basics. That's when these economic indicators give hidden signal well before people really realise that they were on the wrong side.

Fundamentally,many factors are showing divergence with mkt, So at most, we can be cautious in such diverging environment. And wait for market +economy to converge. The divergence can't last long.. But trading on fundamental's alone could be dangrous cause some time the divergence can last for few months..

the tight rangebound price for extend period of time is reminding me of Jan-10 where before steep fall, mkt was in 52-5300 range for 10/12 days. Lets see which side the range breaks this time.. and I am sure then media will be able to justify the trigger.
We are in result season so there will be enough reasons.

Happy Trading what u see.

Bhai I think month on month growth was the highest registered thus far. I will search for the graph and post it here. I am with you on the fall. The more days it is taking for the up move the more confident I am getting about a massive fall. It is yet to breach 5400 or make a new high from April. There are far too many people who are bullish in our market which I say it again is one of the worlds most expensive market. I am so tempted to buy Russia it is so cheap right now but don't have access to go long in that market.

 

[nimish_rulz]

AW10 Praji Here is the chart. Look last month had the highest IIP number growth @ 17% or 19% whatever was the number now forgot. Lets see what comes out this month. I expect a slow down it is not that far it is coming out this Friday. So 2 more trading days lets see how it goes
Here is the chart:

 

[aditya14]

we should start above 5300 now and see what happens from there maybe 5350 maybe 5270

 

[aditya14]

Can Dow kiss 10k today.......

 

[aditya14]

And the answer is a resounding YES shorts will be X X X X X X X tomorrow.watch the live telecast at 9 am

 

[SwingKing]

In the short term horizon market is still holding up. No doubt its due for a correction. But still the time is not ripe. Base building is still evident. Such scenarios change pretty quickly. But unless it does, its better to hold on to bullish views.

Tc

Any shorts should be entertained only after base building is over. As mentioned yesterday, base building on smaller time frame was very evident. We should see expansion today and then we must look for clues to short (if they emerge).

Tc

 

[crown]

Any shorts should be entertained only after base building is over. As mentioned yesterday, base building on smaller time frame was very evident. We should see expansion today and then we must look for clues to short (if they emerge).

Tc

Raunak Sir jee
can u plz tell, what clues to look for short?
jaise kee kis tarah se pata chalega ki short karne ke clue aa rahe hai.

thank you bhai jee.