M6 - Man, Mind, Money, Markets, Method & Madness
- Thread starter DSM
- Start date
Going to a place in the state of Gujarat - called Gandhidham/Bhuj. It's close to the border of Pakistan 
It's a business visit. Travelling by train.... love travelling by train.... I enjoy the journey, get a chance to meet and interact with people, from the window, watch the cities and towns pass by.... see the idylic village life.... a cowherd grazing his cattle, sometimes miles and miles of farmland, and cross bridges, rivers. Always enjoyed train journeys. One of my goals : to get a Eurail pass and hop and backpack across Europe.
It's a business visit. Travelling by train.... love travelling by train.... I enjoy the journey, get a chance to meet and interact with people, from the window, watch the cities and towns pass by.... see the idylic village life.... a cowherd grazing his cattle, sometimes miles and miles of farmland, and cross bridges, rivers. Always enjoyed train journeys. One of my goals : to get a Eurail pass and hop and backpack across Europe. 
Going to a place in the state of Gujarat - called Gandhidham/Bhuj. It's close to the border of Pakistan It's a business visit. Travelling by train.... love travelling by train.... I enjoy the journey, get a chance to meet and interact with people, from the window, watch the cities and towns pass by.... see the idylic village life.... a cowherd grazing his cattle, sometimes miles and miles of farmland, and cross bridges, rivers. Always enjoyed train journeys. One of my goals : to get a Eurail pass and hop and backpack across Europe.
It's a business visit. Travelling by train.... love travelling by train.... I enjoy the journey, get a chance to meet and interact with people, from the window, watch the cities and towns pass by.... see the idylic village life.... a cowherd grazing his cattle, sometimes miles and miles of farmland, and cross bridges, rivers. Always enjoyed train journeys. One of my goals : to get a Eurail pass and hop and backpack across Europe.
Smart_trade
Thank you ST... Am sure to enjoy the authentic Gujarati food..... and the famous Gujju snacks that you mention.
Also, hope to meet one trader I was introduced last time on my visit there. He was a 'Dabba Trader' and would you believe, he showed me a printout of his statement that he had got from his broker/dealer, which was in MTM 60K. His strategy THEN was to short Nifty, and to keep adding shorts when it moved up every 100 points. His take from the trade was 50K/month - without look at the terminal or the charts. Am hoping to meet him and see how he's doing and check if he has changed his strategy now?
Also, hope to meet one trader I was introduced last time on my visit there. He was a 'Dabba Trader' and would you believe, he showed me a printout
of his statement that he had got from his broker/dealer, which was in MTM 60K. His strategy THEN was to short Nifty, and to keep adding shorts when it moved up every 100 points. His take from the trade was 50K/month - without look at the terminal or the charts. Am hoping to meet him and see how he's doing and check if he has changed his strategy now? What India elections mean for the market - By Michael Kitchen
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-india-elections-mean-for-the-market-2014-04-07
India’s general election — a massive exercise, with more than 800 million voters, that will run until May 12 — began on Monday, and the outcome has mixed implications for investors in the country. There is a lengthy menu of parties and candidates but really just two main contenders for the prime ministership. In one corner is Rahul Gandhi. While no relation to India’s founder Mahatma Gandhi, his father was prime minister, his grandmother was prime minister (both were assassinated), and he is the flag bearer for the Indian National Congress party, which leads the current ruling coalition.
In the other corner is Narendra Modi, leader of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The son of a tea merchant, Modi is a vegetarian and writer of poetry, and his critics describe him as a Hindu nationalist culpable for the deaths of hundred if not thousands of Muslims in communal violence when he was Gujarat chief minister.
But whatever the controversy, Modi is the clear front-runner. While Indian election polls aren’t always so accurate, Modi’s BJP is seen winning 259 seats in the Lok Sabha (the dominant house of parliament) against 123 for Congress, according to a recent survey from network NDTV cited by Agence France-Presse. With 272 seats needed to control the legislature, the BJP and its alliance look very likely to form India’s next government.
Some supporters of Modi say the markets have already priced in a BJP victory, dubbing recent gains for Indian stocks and the rupee USDINR +0.64% as “Modi Magic.” The benchmark Sensex IN:1 -0.07% and CNX Nifty are up 5.6% and 6.2%, respectively, for the year to date.
Such chatter has grown loud enough that current Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram felt compelled to trash the theory in recent speeches. “I am amused to read in some sections of the media that it’s the hope of a stable government that is bringing in investments and driving up the capital market and the value of the rupee,” The Wall Street Journal quoted him as saying in a speech late last month, adding that those gains are really a function of the current government.
“It’s obvious that Big Business — and I am using the word Big with a capital B — is supporting BJP, but that’s because Modi is known to favor crony capitalism,” Chidambaram said at a subsequent press briefing. In fact, the details of Modi’s economic policy (inevitably dubbed “Modinomics” by the local news media) are still vague, with the BJP expected to release a list of proposals this week. (Note : This article was written before release of BJP manifesto)
Reuters offers some clues as to the thrust of Modinomics, quoting some of his advisors and other supporters as comparing Modi to conservative British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. “If you define Thatcherism as less government, free enterprise, then there is no difference between Modinomics and Thatcherism,” the Reuters report quotes Deepak Kanth, a London-based banker and Modi supporter, as saying. Specifically, Kanth sees Modi as smashing through India’s red tape to revive long-stalled infrastructure projects.
Indian economist Arvind Subramanian agrees that Modi’s intentions involve a Thatcher-like “Big Bang” of policy moves, but he’s not sure the BJP leader (assuming he becomes prime minister) can pull it off. “On arrival in office, he is expected to identify the 25-50 most important stalled infrastructure projects, locate the bottlenecks and authorize their removal. Hyperactivity on resuscitating big projects will be the most visible sign of the new regime,” Subramanian wrote in a commentary published recently in several newspapers.
“But this hyperactivity will face two challenges. Economic decentralization being well advanced, the levers of economic power affecting infrastructure projects ... reside with the states. A majority, including the large states, will be controlled by opposition parties. Similarly, getting the large private-sector infrastructure companies to invest might require taking some of the debts off their books, which will raise concerns about cronyism, create moral hazard and weaken further bank balance sheets,” he writes.
Meanwhile, HSBC is tipping a pullback for the rupee, at least once the election dust settles. “We have found the currency tends to benefit into an election but struggles to maintain such positive momentum after the event,” HSBC economists wrote in a recent note. HSBC also warns investors to expect far more government spending than what was outlined in the interim budget earlier this year, which they saw as containing “overly optimistic assumptions on increases in tax revenues and reduction in subsidy expenditure.”
“An analysis of past elections reveals that borrowing estimates presented in the interim budget tend to be revised higher during the final budget. The largest revision in borrowing numbers occurred in the 2004-05 fiscal year, when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance was replaced by the [Congress-led] United Progressive Alliance,” they write.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-india-elections-mean-for-the-market-2014-04-07
India’s general election — a massive exercise, with more than 800 million voters, that will run until May 12 — began on Monday, and the outcome has mixed implications for investors in the country. There is a lengthy menu of parties and candidates but really just two main contenders for the prime ministership. In one corner is Rahul Gandhi. While no relation to India’s founder Mahatma Gandhi, his father was prime minister, his grandmother was prime minister (both were assassinated), and he is the flag bearer for the Indian National Congress party, which leads the current ruling coalition.
In the other corner is Narendra Modi, leader of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The son of a tea merchant, Modi is a vegetarian and writer of poetry, and his critics describe him as a Hindu nationalist culpable for the deaths of hundred if not thousands of Muslims in communal violence when he was Gujarat chief minister.
But whatever the controversy, Modi is the clear front-runner. While Indian election polls aren’t always so accurate, Modi’s BJP is seen winning 259 seats in the Lok Sabha (the dominant house of parliament) against 123 for Congress, according to a recent survey from network NDTV cited by Agence France-Presse. With 272 seats needed to control the legislature, the BJP and its alliance look very likely to form India’s next government.
Some supporters of Modi say the markets have already priced in a BJP victory, dubbing recent gains for Indian stocks and the rupee USDINR +0.64% as “Modi Magic.” The benchmark Sensex IN:1 -0.07% and CNX Nifty are up 5.6% and 6.2%, respectively, for the year to date.
Such chatter has grown loud enough that current Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram felt compelled to trash the theory in recent speeches. “I am amused to read in some sections of the media that it’s the hope of a stable government that is bringing in investments and driving up the capital market and the value of the rupee,” The Wall Street Journal quoted him as saying in a speech late last month, adding that those gains are really a function of the current government.
“It’s obvious that Big Business — and I am using the word Big with a capital B — is supporting BJP, but that’s because Modi is known to favor crony capitalism,” Chidambaram said at a subsequent press briefing. In fact, the details of Modi’s economic policy (inevitably dubbed “Modinomics” by the local news media) are still vague, with the BJP expected to release a list of proposals this week. (Note : This article was written before release of BJP manifesto)
Reuters offers some clues as to the thrust of Modinomics, quoting some of his advisors and other supporters as comparing Modi to conservative British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. “If you define Thatcherism as less government, free enterprise, then there is no difference between Modinomics and Thatcherism,” the Reuters report quotes Deepak Kanth, a London-based banker and Modi supporter, as saying. Specifically, Kanth sees Modi as smashing through India’s red tape to revive long-stalled infrastructure projects.
Indian economist Arvind Subramanian agrees that Modi’s intentions involve a Thatcher-like “Big Bang” of policy moves, but he’s not sure the BJP leader (assuming he becomes prime minister) can pull it off. “On arrival in office, he is expected to identify the 25-50 most important stalled infrastructure projects, locate the bottlenecks and authorize their removal. Hyperactivity on resuscitating big projects will be the most visible sign of the new regime,” Subramanian wrote in a commentary published recently in several newspapers.
“But this hyperactivity will face two challenges. Economic decentralization being well advanced, the levers of economic power affecting infrastructure projects ... reside with the states. A majority, including the large states, will be controlled by opposition parties. Similarly, getting the large private-sector infrastructure companies to invest might require taking some of the debts off their books, which will raise concerns about cronyism, create moral hazard and weaken further bank balance sheets,” he writes.
Meanwhile, HSBC is tipping a pullback for the rupee, at least once the election dust settles. “We have found the currency tends to benefit into an election but struggles to maintain such positive momentum after the event,” HSBC economists wrote in a recent note. HSBC also warns investors to expect far more government spending than what was outlined in the interim budget earlier this year, which they saw as containing “overly optimistic assumptions on increases in tax revenues and reduction in subsidy expenditure.”
“An analysis of past elections reveals that borrowing estimates presented in the interim budget tend to be revised higher during the final budget. The largest revision in borrowing numbers occurred in the 2004-05 fiscal year, when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance was replaced by the [Congress-led] United Progressive Alliance,” they write.
Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up - ART CASHIN
http://www.businessinsider.in/ART-C...idence-To-Back-It-Up/articleshow/21278088.cms
No discussion about gold is complete without a good conspiracy theory.
While most theories are easily dismissed, some stay around for a while due to a confluence of circumstantial evidence surrounding it. Wall Street veteran Art Cashin addresses one such theory in this morning's Cashin's Comments.
He builds off of this weekend's New York Times story about Goldman Sachs' aluminum warehousing operation and Monday's gold spike. A quick note about jargon: commodities like gold will have a futures price and a spot price. The futures price is the price you'd see on a contract, which is traded on an exchange like the NYMEX. The spot price is the current price of the commodity. Backwardation occurs when the spot price is above the futures price. Typically, these two prices converge when the futures contract matures.
All That Glitters Is Not Arbitrage - Monday, spot gold spiked up $45 and the media pundits pointed to things from China to the FOMC. While all the cited may have been factors, veteran traders saw the bulk of the move resting in a conspiracy story. In my mid-day email to friends I had noted this : Gold soars as NYT story on metal warehouses fans flames of conspiracy theorists that gold warehouse stores have been "lent" out. That theory also aided by backwardation (spot price far above near future).
If you haven't been following gold closely, let me expand on that a little. For several months "physical gold" (bracelets, coins and small bars) have seen near riotous demand with long lines stretching into the streets. At the same time "paper gold" (ETF's, futures and nominal spot) have seen sharply falling prices. That dichotomy has sparked more than a few conspiracy theories.
The worst (and most strained) claims the world's central banks have put a bear raid on gold. That rumor claims that they are trying to cover the fact that they have sold/lent the gold they were supposedly safeguarding for their citizens. A plunging gold price would reduce the urge to look behind the curtain (or into the vault) and discover this misfeasance. A more pervasive form of the rumor/hypothesis substitutes the global banks for the central banks but with the same, theoretical, abuse of custody.
A key support of these theories is the backwardation in gold - the spot price is higher than the near future contract. That's unusual. It could normally be resolved by selling spot gold and buying the cheaper future one month out. Thus, in a month, you would reap an apparent locked-in, riskless profit. Yet no one seems to be doing it. Is there doubt that there is gold in storage that will be deliverable in a month? So, the theorists assume.
Now add in the front page NYT story, hinting chicanery and manipulation by the big banks of warehoused metals. Was this the smoking gun? Some folks seemed to think so as a short covering stampede exploded the gold price. The next five days will be key. Arb, or arbitrage, is a fancy word traders use to describe a situation where they can take advantage of market price discrepanicies to book guaranteed profits. Is there something the traders know that we don't know? Are there other forces preventing the arb opportunity from being arbed away?
Unfortunately, we are not sophisticated enough to answer these questions. But email us if you can.
First I would like to know your thoughts about federal Reserve and then compare it with central bank in any or every way you can......... I am no expert on these things.
But I am looking for some knowledge on this, not getting clear answers............. Do you believe or think federal Reserve is a privately owned Bank? I believe it is
But I am looking for some knowledge on this, not getting clear answers............. Do you believe or think federal Reserve is a privately owned Bank? I believe it is
Similar threads
-
Dollar stabilizes&Safe-haven Demand Cools, Gold Retreats to $2320, Focus Shifts to US Jobs Data
- Started by Veteran123
- Replies: 0
-
-
How do you manage risk when trading forex, especially during volatile market conditions?
- Started by ReggieFx
- Replies: 2
-
How do you follow risk management strategy?
- Started by ReggieFx
- Replies: 4
-