M6 - Man, Mind, Money, Markets, Method & Madness

[DSM]

TooCool, Have read a bit about this, but did not want to dig deeper. It is a subject on which we do not have ALL the information and data, but have to rely on hearsay, allegations, and conspiracy theories. Who is right? What facts are selectively dished out, or are fed to us? We can't say unless we spend a lot of time - which is unproductive. Say, even if we analyse and come to some understanding on either side of the debate - how will it help in our trading / everyday life? It is a subject that can be pursued if one has time and inclination.... but I personally am short of time to do many other things that are close at hand or that what I want. So, for me, while being an interesting subject which I may read upon to get both side of the story, don't have anything to come to clear conclusion. One thing we need to be careful about is getting carried away by a theory which lays undue emphasis on some extreme, seemingly alarming, or obscure observations (which may well be possible in human behaviour / nature etc as a matter or probability or pure coincidence) to derive at seemingly sinister and alarming but unsound conclusions.

Somebody may say that lottery is rigged basis this report - a couple wins three lottries in a month (1 million dollar twice, and once 50K dollars). Or is it something that is truly a statistical probability (in a data universe of millions or people buying lotteries each month?)

http://nypost.com/2014/04/01/lucky-couple-wins-lottery-three-times-in-one-month/

First I would like to know your thoughts about federal Reserve and then compare it with central bank in any or every way you can......... I am no expert on these things.

But I am looking for some knowledge on this, not getting clear answers............. Do you believe or think federal Reserve is a privately owned Bank? I believe it is

 

[amitrandive]

 

[DSM]

Participatory notes holders may be taxed in next budget: Parthasarathi Shome

We all know that P-Notes account for more than 50% of FII investment in the country. In 2007, the markets were spooked by the finance ministry wanting to regulate/tax the P-Note participants, leading to sell-off and a gap down open of some 7-8%. Is this issue cropping up again? Is it a reason for 'profit booking'? Can it be a reason for 'market U-trun'? These are just assumptions. But the fact is that the important P-Note issue is raising its head, as it appears in today's issue of Economic Times.The question is : Do some market participants know more than we do?

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

India may ask overseas investors to pay tax on their income from participatory notes (P-Notes) in the next budget, Parthasarathi Shome, advisor to Union finance minister, has told ET. Shome, a veteran in taxation, said the finance department has agreed on this and the new government may include this in the budget proposal. P-Notes are issued by registered foreign institutional investors (FII) to investors abroad and hedge funds, who invest in in local stocks without registering themselves with the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

Even registered FII's use the PN route to avoid uncertainty over income tax. "So far, PNs issued by FIIs to overseas investors were not taxed by the income tax department. But after deliberations in the finance department, the PN holders may be taxed in the next budget," Shome said at an event organised by the Institute of Cost Accountants of India. Typically, PN holders are being taxed by countries where investments are routed through FIIs. Shome also said the revised 2013 version of the Direct Taxes Code has retained the erstwhile practice of granting EEE (exempt, exempt, exempt) to savings at the time of investments, accruals and withdrawal, since there was stiff opposition to the EET (exempt, exempt, tax) as proposed in the original DTC of 2009.

In case of wealth tax, the revised DTC proposed that the dividend distribution for incremental dividend in excess of Rs 1 crore would be taxed in the hands of the shareholders. It has also proposed to retain corporate tax at 25 per cent. Shome said the 35 per cent tax slab for super-rich individuals and Hindu Undivided Families with annual income of Rs 10 crore and above would bring in equity in taxing. He has cited examples of the UK, Germany, Chile and South Africa where such tax slabs are much higher.

 

[DSM]

Flat Nifty OI data hints at trend reversal

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

The Nifty ended the previous week on a flat note making a Doji pattern on the weekly candlestick chart. The Nifty OI remains flat (since expiry) indicating market trend could reverse or remain sideways for the near term. In fact, the indecisiveness started from March rolls, where it turned out to be below average, indicating low conviction from traders to carry their position into the new series. April being a truncated month, we might see volatility shooting up in the near term.

VIX has already surged to 25 per cent as against 22 per cent the previous week as we enter the election phase. The participant wise OI data indicates
FII's long/short ratio on index currently stands at around 4.2x. FIIs' total long contracts on index futures stand close to 2.9 lakh (Maximum at aropund 5 lakh contract in previous expiry) and total short index position at 69K. The cost of carry for Nifty has gone up for the past two trading sessions to 0.66 as against 0.50 levels during the start of the expiry.

On options front, 6700 strike has the maximum concentration for the current PCR stands at 1.06. PCR has been trading within the band of 0.96-1.20 since January 2014. Last three expiries in January, February and March have closed near the trough or at the peak. April options data doesn't indicate any huge build-up which may restrict the move (either up/down) at a particular strike. Private banks and large cap goods stocks are exhibiting weakness.

 

[amitrandive]

Dalal Street Sniffs Insider Trading
Ranbaxy Stock Price Surges 33% In 6 Days Prior To Merger Announcement | Market Regulator To Look Into Deal

http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Defa...b=TOI&Enter=true&Skin=TOINEW&AW=1396929282805

Market regulator Sebi will look into the Sun Pharma-Ranbaxy Laboratories deal for any possible violation of securities laws. In case the regulator finds any wrongdoing, it would launch a formal investigation into the deal. Interestingly, the 33% gain in the Ranbaxy stock in just six days in the run-up to the deal’s announcement on Monday morning has raised eyebrows in the market, with some even hinting at possible insider trading in the troubled drug maker’s stock.
When contacted by TOI, a Sebi official, however, said this was not a formal investigation, but just a preliminary survey of the deal.
Over the last six days, prior to the announcement, the Ranbaxy stock had gained 32.6% on the NSE, of which 8.2% came on Friday itself, accompanied by huge volumes. From a low of Rs 347 on March 27, the Ranbaxy stock price started rising from the next day and closed at Rs 460 on Friday. On Monday, the stock was up 10% in the morning, but then ended 3.1% lower at Rs 445 after the announcement.

This rapid rise in the stock’s price was accompanied by a huge spurt in volumes in the counter as well. On the NSE, average volume in the Ranbaxy counter for the six days was nearly 65 lakh shares a day — about 3.2 times the average 20 lakh volume during the 14 days prior to the start of the spurt in volumes. On the BSE, the rise in volumes in the same six-day period was about 4.5 times compared to the previous 14-day period.
In addition, this substantial spurt in stock price came at a time when the Indian currency had appreciated. Usually, any strengthening of the rupee is seen as a negative for Indian drug companies, which earn a substantial part of their revenues from exports, and this includes Ranbaxy. This is because an appreciating rupee will bring down the revenues that is earned in dollars, or any other major currency but reported in India in rupee terms. From 60.32 to a dollar on March 27, the rupee — boosted by strong FII inflows — appreciated to a four-month high of 59.89 the next day and is now trading at 60.13.

 

[amitrandive]

Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up - ART CASHIN
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Is there any market/segment in the trading world where rigging,manipulation is not there ???

 

[DSM]

Good question Amit. It was believed that the 'trillion dollar a day' FX market was not rigged, even though it is not regulated, as such a highly liquid market could not be manipulated. But as the skeletons have tumbled out, it is become clear that the biggest names in banking have been have been manipulating the market. And the names include Citibank, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JPMorgan, UBS etc. So the answer to your question is unfortunately No.

Is there any market/segment in the trading world where rigging,manipulation is not there ???

 

[DSM]

And finally, a few gems of wisdom collected over time, before I pack my bags. Some of these gems are from TJ members, which I have collected and saved for my personal reflection. Apologies, as I have not saved the name of the poster along with the quote

A good trader is trader by his nature not by his profession. A good trader calls himself a trader because he thinks like trader, lives like a trader, talks like trader - and not because he has a trading account and he is just doing buying and selling.

When not to trade is sometimes as important, if not more important, than when to trade.

Be interested in the process and that is your reward.. outcomes are just by-products.

If the trading the SIZE is bigger then your risk tolerance, your brain will not be able to take the pain of loss because your position is BIG. So cut it down to "I Don't Care" size and trade it for 12 weeks consistently. Even if you have a capital to take 100 lots size position you can't manage it properly unless you are ready MENTALLY.

If you are a technical trader , you must not make an opinion about the markets at all . Stick to your technical analysis or system. Your opinions have a way to stick to inside your head and make you see only what you want to see.

Winners are also having open-minded attitude. Whenever the trend changes, they are ready to book the loss and trade with the trend. They are always flexible. They are purely riding with market trend for every ups and downs. So they win. Bias-Trading can be suitable for long term investors for more than one year. Accepting the loss is the best strategy whenever the trend changes against you

Be ready to take quick decision whenever the trend changes against you. Major swing trend can be found from hourly chart. Positional on daily chart.

If the data is negative and crude goes up, major players have the chance to sell again whenever the prices goes up and average their position... because money is not a problem.. And they also do not worrying about technical analysis.... if the data is positive and crude goes down, big players have chance to buy at lower prices and average their position again.

A trader may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight – Jesse Livermore

Accepting uncertainty and getting rid of the need to be right all the time is the first sign of maturity.

 

[amitrandive]

And finally, a few gems of wisdom collected over time, before I pack my bags. Some of these gems are from TJ members, which I have collected and saved for my personal reflection. Apologies, as I have not saved the name of the poster along with the quote

Happy Journey DSM

Hope you enjoy your journey in the calm and still,vibrant land of Gujarat.I lived there for around 12 years.
:thumb:

 

[Option.Trader]

Flat Nifty OI data hints at trend reversal

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

The Nifty ended the previous week on a flat note making a Doji pattern on the weekly candlestick chart. The Nifty OI remains flat (since expiry) indicating market trend could reverse or remain sideways for the near term. In fact, the indecisiveness started from March rolls, where it turned out to be below average, indicating low conviction from traders to carry their position into the new series. April being a truncated month, we might see volatility shooting up in the near term.

VIX has already surged to 25 per cent as against 22 per cent the previous week as we enter the election phase. The participant wise OI data indicates
FII's long/short ratio on index currently stands at around 4.2x. FIIs' total long contracts on index futures stand close to 2.9 lakh (Maximum at aropund 5 lakh contract in previous expiry) and total short index position at 69K. The cost of carry for Nifty has gone up for the past two trading sessions to 0.66 as against 0.50 levels during the start of the expiry.

On options front, 6700 strike has the maximum concentration for the current PCR stands at 1.06. PCR has been trading within the band of 0.96-1.20 since January 2014. Last three expiries in January, February and March have closed near the trough or at the peak. April options data doesn't indicate any huge build-up which may restrict the move (either up/down) at a particular strike. Private banks and large cap goods stocks are exhibiting weakness.

All this OI looks BS now, problem with OI is that it can change within minutes, for eg nobody may have noticed, but on Monday in morning, 12l calls of 6700-6800ce were written, but by afternoon that had unwound to about 2l, so all bears had run Away by afternoon, so it's very misleading reading OI without context as the above article does