M6 - Man, Mind, Money, Markets, Method & Madness
- Thread starter DSM
- Start date
Did not realize it was a trading holiday!! Yay. Off to see a movie. The Deadly Art of Stock Manipulation - George Chelekis Part I
http://iasw-after-all.blogspot.in/2010/06/deadly-art-of-stock-manipulation.html
In every profession, there are probably a dozen or two major rules. Knowing them cold is what separates the professional from the amateur. In order to successfully speculate, one should presume the following: THE SMALL CAP STOCK MARKETS PRIMARILY EXIST TO FLEECE YOU! I'm talking about Vancouver, Alberta, the Canadian Dealing Network and the US Over-the Counter markets (Pink Sheets, Bulletin Board, etc.). One could also stretch this, with many stocks, to include the world's senior stock markets, including Toronto, New York, NASDAQ, London, etc. The average investor or speculator is not very likely to have much success in the small cap crapshoots. I guess that is what attracted ME to these markets. I have been trying, for quite some time, to answer this question, "How come?" Now, I know. And you should, too!
By the way, the premise of these books is uniformly: "While these speculative companies do not actually make any money, one can profit by speculating in these companies." THAT is the premise on how these markets are run, by both the stock promoters, insiders, brokers, analysts and others in this industry. That logic is flawed in that it presumes "someone else" is going to end up holding the dirty bag. Follow this premise all the way through and you will realize the insane conclusion: For these markets to continue along that route, new suckers have to continue coming into the marketplace. The conclusion is insane in that such mad activity can only be short-lived. I disagree with this premise and propose another solution (see my earlier essay: A Modest Proposal) at the end of this essay.
What the professionals and the securities regulators know and understand, which the rest of us do not, is this.
"RULE NUMBER ONE: ALL SHARP PRICE MOVEMENTS -- WHETHER UP OR DOWN -- ARE THE RESULT OF ONE OR MORE (USUALLY A GROUP OF) PROFESSIONALS MANIPULATING THE SHARE PRICE."
This should explain why a mining company finds something good and "nothing happens" or the stock goes down. At the same time, for NO apparent reason, a stock suddenly takes off for the sky! On little volume! Someone is manipulating that stock, often with an unfounded rumor.
In order to make these market manipulations work, the professionals assume: (a) The Public is STUPID and (b) The Public will mainly buy at the HIGH and (c) The Public will sell at the LOW.
Therefore, as long as the market manipulator can run crowd control, he can be successful.
Let's face it: The reason you speculate in such markets is that you are greedy AND optimistic. You believe in a better tomorrow and NEED to make money quickly. It is this sentiment which is exploited by the market manipulator. He controls YOUR greed and fear about a particular stock. If he wants you to buy, the company's prospects look like the next Microsoft. If the manipulator wants you to desert the sinking ship, he suddenly becomes very guarded in his remarks about the company, isn't around to glowingly answer questions about the company and/or GETS issued very bad news about the company. Which brings us to the next important rule.
"RULE NUMBER TWO: IF THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WANTS TO DISTRIBUTE (DUMP) HIS SHARES, HE WILL START A GOOD NEWS PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN."
Ever wonder why a particular company is made to look like the greatest thing since sliced bread? That sentiment is manufactured.
Newsletter writers are hired -- either secretly or not -- to cheerlead a stock. PR firms are hired and let loose upon an unsuspecting public. Contracts to appear on radio talk shows are signed and implemented. Stockbrokers get "cheap" stock to recommend the company to their "book" (that means YOU, the client in his book). An advertising campaign is rolled out (television ads, newspaper ads, card deck mailings). The company signs up to exhibit at "investment conferences" and "gold shows" (mainly so they can get a little "podium time" to hype you on their stock and tell you how "their company is really different" and "not a stock promotion.") Funny little "hype" messages are posted on Internet newsgroups by the same cast of usual suspects. The more, the merrier. And a little "juice" can go a long way toward running up the stock price.
The HYPE is on. The more clever a stock promoter, the better his knowledge of the advertising business. Little gimmicks like "positioning" are used. Example: Make a completely unknown company look warm and fuzzy and appealing to you by comparing it to a recent success story, Diamond Fields or Bre-X Minerals. That is the POSITIONING gospel, authored by Ries and Trout (famous for "Avis: We Want To Be #1" and "We Try Harder" and other such slogans). These advertising/PR executives must have stumbled onto this formula after losing their shirts speculating in a few Canadian stock promotions! The only reason you have been invited to this seemingly incredible banquet is that YOU are the main course. After the market manipulator has suckered you into "his investment," exchanging HIS paper for YOUR cash, the walls begin to close in on you. Why is that?
"RULE NUMBER THREE: AS SOON AS THE MARKET MANIPULATOR HAS COMPLETED HIS DISTRIBUTION (DUMPING) OF SHARES, HE WILL START A BAD NEWS OR NO NEWS CAMPAIGN."
Your favorite home-run stock has just stalled or retreated a bit from its high. Suddenly, there is a news VACUUM. Either NO news or BAD rumors. I discovered this with quite a few stocks. I would get LOADS of information and "hot tips." All of a sudden, my pipeline was shut-off. Some companies would even issue a news release CONDEMNING me ("We don't need 'that kind of hype' referring to me!). Cute, huh? When the company wanted fantastic hype circulated hither and yon, there would be someone there to spoon-feed me. The second the distribution phase was DONE....ooops! Sorry, no more news. Or, "I'm sorry. He's not in the office." Or, "He won't be back until Monday."
The really slick market manipulators would even seed the Internet news groups or other journalists to plant negative stories about that company. Or start a propaganda campaign of negative rumors on all available communication vehicles. Even hiring a "contrarian" or "special PR firm" to drive down the price. Even hiring someone to attack the guy who had earlier written glowingly about the company. (This is not a game for the faint-hearted!)
You'll also see the stock drifting endlessly. You may even experience a helpless feeling, as if you were floating in outer space without a lifeline. That is exactly HOW the market manipulator wants you to feel. He may also be doing this to avoid the severe disappointment of a "dry hole" or a "failed deal." You'll hear that oft-cried refrain, "Oh well, that's the junior minerals exploration business... very risky!" Or the oft-quoted statistic, "Nine out of 10 businesses fail each year and this IS a Venture Capital Startup stock exchange." Don't think it wasn't contrived. If a geologist at a junior mining company wasn't optimistic and rosy in his promise of exploration success, he would be replaced by someone who was! Ditto for the high-tech deal, in a world awash with PhD's.
So, how do you know when you are being taken? Look again at Rule #1. Inside that rule, a few other rules unfold which explain how a stock price is manipulated.
Part II to follow
http://iasw-after-all.blogspot.in/2010/06/deadly-art-of-stock-manipulation.html
In every profession, there are probably a dozen or two major rules. Knowing them cold is what separates the professional from the amateur. In order to successfully speculate, one should presume the following: THE SMALL CAP STOCK MARKETS PRIMARILY EXIST TO FLEECE YOU! I'm talking about Vancouver, Alberta, the Canadian Dealing Network and the US Over-the Counter markets (Pink Sheets, Bulletin Board, etc.). One could also stretch this, with many stocks, to include the world's senior stock markets, including Toronto, New York, NASDAQ, London, etc. The average investor or speculator is not very likely to have much success in the small cap crapshoots. I guess that is what attracted ME to these markets. I have been trying, for quite some time, to answer this question, "How come?" Now, I know. And you should, too!
By the way, the premise of these books is uniformly: "While these speculative companies do not actually make any money, one can profit by speculating in these companies." THAT is the premise on how these markets are run, by both the stock promoters, insiders, brokers, analysts and others in this industry. That logic is flawed in that it presumes "someone else" is going to end up holding the dirty bag. Follow this premise all the way through and you will realize the insane conclusion: For these markets to continue along that route, new suckers have to continue coming into the marketplace. The conclusion is insane in that such mad activity can only be short-lived. I disagree with this premise and propose another solution (see my earlier essay: A Modest Proposal) at the end of this essay.
What the professionals and the securities regulators know and understand, which the rest of us do not, is this.
"RULE NUMBER ONE: ALL SHARP PRICE MOVEMENTS -- WHETHER UP OR DOWN -- ARE THE RESULT OF ONE OR MORE (USUALLY A GROUP OF) PROFESSIONALS MANIPULATING THE SHARE PRICE."
This should explain why a mining company finds something good and "nothing happens" or the stock goes down. At the same time, for NO apparent reason, a stock suddenly takes off for the sky! On little volume! Someone is manipulating that stock, often with an unfounded rumor.
In order to make these market manipulations work, the professionals assume: (a) The Public is STUPID and (b) The Public will mainly buy at the HIGH and (c) The Public will sell at the LOW.
Therefore, as long as the market manipulator can run crowd control, he can be successful.
Let's face it: The reason you speculate in such markets is that you are greedy AND optimistic. You believe in a better tomorrow and NEED to make money quickly. It is this sentiment which is exploited by the market manipulator. He controls YOUR greed and fear about a particular stock. If he wants you to buy, the company's prospects look like the next Microsoft. If the manipulator wants you to desert the sinking ship, he suddenly becomes very guarded in his remarks about the company, isn't around to glowingly answer questions about the company and/or GETS issued very bad news about the company. Which brings us to the next important rule.
"RULE NUMBER TWO: IF THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WANTS TO DISTRIBUTE (DUMP) HIS SHARES, HE WILL START A GOOD NEWS PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN."
Ever wonder why a particular company is made to look like the greatest thing since sliced bread? That sentiment is manufactured.
Newsletter writers are hired -- either secretly or not -- to cheerlead a stock. PR firms are hired and let loose upon an unsuspecting public. Contracts to appear on radio talk shows are signed and implemented. Stockbrokers get "cheap" stock to recommend the company to their "book" (that means YOU, the client in his book). An advertising campaign is rolled out (television ads, newspaper ads, card deck mailings). The company signs up to exhibit at "investment conferences" and "gold shows" (mainly so they can get a little "podium time" to hype you on their stock and tell you how "their company is really different" and "not a stock promotion.") Funny little "hype" messages are posted on Internet newsgroups by the same cast of usual suspects. The more, the merrier. And a little "juice" can go a long way toward running up the stock price.
The HYPE is on. The more clever a stock promoter, the better his knowledge of the advertising business. Little gimmicks like "positioning" are used. Example: Make a completely unknown company look warm and fuzzy and appealing to you by comparing it to a recent success story, Diamond Fields or Bre-X Minerals. That is the POSITIONING gospel, authored by Ries and Trout (famous for "Avis: We Want To Be #1" and "We Try Harder" and other such slogans). These advertising/PR executives must have stumbled onto this formula after losing their shirts speculating in a few Canadian stock promotions! The only reason you have been invited to this seemingly incredible banquet is that YOU are the main course. After the market manipulator has suckered you into "his investment," exchanging HIS paper for YOUR cash, the walls begin to close in on you. Why is that?
"RULE NUMBER THREE: AS SOON AS THE MARKET MANIPULATOR HAS COMPLETED HIS DISTRIBUTION (DUMPING) OF SHARES, HE WILL START A BAD NEWS OR NO NEWS CAMPAIGN."
Your favorite home-run stock has just stalled or retreated a bit from its high. Suddenly, there is a news VACUUM. Either NO news or BAD rumors. I discovered this with quite a few stocks. I would get LOADS of information and "hot tips." All of a sudden, my pipeline was shut-off. Some companies would even issue a news release CONDEMNING me ("We don't need 'that kind of hype' referring to me!). Cute, huh? When the company wanted fantastic hype circulated hither and yon, there would be someone there to spoon-feed me. The second the distribution phase was DONE....ooops! Sorry, no more news. Or, "I'm sorry. He's not in the office." Or, "He won't be back until Monday."
The really slick market manipulators would even seed the Internet news groups or other journalists to plant negative stories about that company. Or start a propaganda campaign of negative rumors on all available communication vehicles. Even hiring a "contrarian" or "special PR firm" to drive down the price. Even hiring someone to attack the guy who had earlier written glowingly about the company. (This is not a game for the faint-hearted!)
You'll also see the stock drifting endlessly. You may even experience a helpless feeling, as if you were floating in outer space without a lifeline. That is exactly HOW the market manipulator wants you to feel. He may also be doing this to avoid the severe disappointment of a "dry hole" or a "failed deal." You'll hear that oft-cried refrain, "Oh well, that's the junior minerals exploration business... very risky!" Or the oft-quoted statistic, "Nine out of 10 businesses fail each year and this IS a Venture Capital Startup stock exchange." Don't think it wasn't contrived. If a geologist at a junior mining company wasn't optimistic and rosy in his promise of exploration success, he would be replaced by someone who was! Ditto for the high-tech deal, in a world awash with PhD's.
So, how do you know when you are being taken? Look again at Rule #1. Inside that rule, a few other rules unfold which explain how a stock price is manipulated.
Part II to follow
Shree Ashtavinayak shows what’s wrong with Indian market
http://moneylife.in/article/shree-ashtavinayak-shows-whats-wrong-with-indian-market/37024.html
The stock price of loss-making Shree Ashtavinayak has shot up 128% in just eight trading days. The promoters hold just 0.54% and so-called FIIs 7.93%. Is SEBI aware of the obvious manipulation and possible money laundering?
On 31 March 2014, the shares of Shree Ashtavinayak Cine Vision Ltd, (Shree Ashtavinayak) hit a 52-week low at Rs0.46. After this, it started moving up ferociously and in just eight trading days the stock has gained 128% to Rs1.05 on 11th April on the BSE. Trading volumes have exploded. On 31st March, the volume of shares traded was 2.93 lakh shares, which kept on increasing and on 10th March, volumes grew more than 10 times to 33.86 lakh.
What's driving the stock price? Or, is it another blatant case of price manipulation, that market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) cannot see?
The company is making large losses. During December 2013 quarter, Shree Ashtavinayak recorded net loss of Rs4.27 crore compared with Rs3.26 crore of loss a year ago. In the September 2013 quarter, it recorded a humongous Rs43.19 crore of loss. The promoter stake in the company is negligible at 0.54%. Guess what? So-called foreign institutional investors (FII) hold 7.93% in this penny stock, leaving 91.53% with the public, as on 31st December 2013. Is this some kind of joke?
According to market sources Shree Ashtavinayak has always been seen as an 'operator-driven' stock. The share prices of this film production company has always been driven up and down on rumours and unconnected to its fundamentals.
On 14 January 2011, the stock price closed at Rs5.36. This was the first upward move since 25 November 2010. And in the six trading sessions since 14th January, the stock gained 33% to Rs7.15. This is in sharp contrast to the 90% fall in two months till 14 January 2011.
In February 2010, the stock price slipped from Rs33 and was locked in the lower circuit for days, till it settled at Rs11 on 11th March. It languished at Rs11-15 levels between March and July last year, then started to move upwards, apparently on rumours that the company would earn a bumper profit from the distribution of 3 Idiots.
This is one stock that reflects all that is wrong with stock market supervision.
• Operators can rig stock prices at will in India. There is no investigation
• The FII route has long been suspected of money laundering and round-tripping. This case almost proves it. Why would “FIIs” be holding 7.93% shares in a penny stock, where “promoters” hold just 0.54%?
• The market regulator SEBI is getting more powers and money to act like the police – search, seize, detain, freeze assets etc but has been found to be failing to monitor obvious cases of price manipulation.
• SEBI has blown up over Rs40 crore in installing Intermarket Surveillance System under successive chairmen from M Damodaran to Mr UK Sinha but can be bothered by such obvious cases of price rigging.
http://moneylife.in/article/shree-ashtavinayak-shows-whats-wrong-with-indian-market/37024.html
The stock price of loss-making Shree Ashtavinayak has shot up 128% in just eight trading days. The promoters hold just 0.54% and so-called FIIs 7.93%. Is SEBI aware of the obvious manipulation and possible money laundering?
On 31 March 2014, the shares of Shree Ashtavinayak Cine Vision Ltd, (Shree Ashtavinayak) hit a 52-week low at Rs0.46. After this, it started moving up ferociously and in just eight trading days the stock has gained 128% to Rs1.05 on 11th April on the BSE. Trading volumes have exploded. On 31st March, the volume of shares traded was 2.93 lakh shares, which kept on increasing and on 10th March, volumes grew more than 10 times to 33.86 lakh.
What's driving the stock price? Or, is it another blatant case of price manipulation, that market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) cannot see?
The company is making large losses. During December 2013 quarter, Shree Ashtavinayak recorded net loss of Rs4.27 crore compared with Rs3.26 crore of loss a year ago. In the September 2013 quarter, it recorded a humongous Rs43.19 crore of loss. The promoter stake in the company is negligible at 0.54%. Guess what? So-called foreign institutional investors (FII) hold 7.93% in this penny stock, leaving 91.53% with the public, as on 31st December 2013. Is this some kind of joke?
According to market sources Shree Ashtavinayak has always been seen as an 'operator-driven' stock. The share prices of this film production company has always been driven up and down on rumours and unconnected to its fundamentals.
On 14 January 2011, the stock price closed at Rs5.36. This was the first upward move since 25 November 2010. And in the six trading sessions since 14th January, the stock gained 33% to Rs7.15. This is in sharp contrast to the 90% fall in two months till 14 January 2011.
In February 2010, the stock price slipped from Rs33 and was locked in the lower circuit for days, till it settled at Rs11 on 11th March. It languished at Rs11-15 levels between March and July last year, then started to move upwards, apparently on rumours that the company would earn a bumper profit from the distribution of 3 Idiots.
This is one stock that reflects all that is wrong with stock market supervision.
• Operators can rig stock prices at will in India. There is no investigation
• The FII route has long been suspected of money laundering and round-tripping. This case almost proves it. Why would “FIIs” be holding 7.93% shares in a penny stock, where “promoters” hold just 0.54%?
• The market regulator SEBI is getting more powers and money to act like the police – search, seize, detain, freeze assets etc but has been found to be failing to monitor obvious cases of price manipulation.
• SEBI has blown up over Rs40 crore in installing Intermarket Surveillance System under successive chairmen from M Damodaran to Mr UK Sinha but can be bothered by such obvious cases of price rigging.
The Zurich Axioms - Part III
Major Axiom 5 :- On Patterns - The Emperor Axiom
Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.
Do not look for order where order does not exist. Do not overlook the large role chance takes in any speculation. Study information in whatever speculative medium to improve chances and take your best shot. Stay light on your feet ready to jump this way or that. You are dealing with chaos, as long as you are alert to that fact you can keep yourself from getting hurt.
Internal Monolog goes:
OK. I've done my homework as well as I know how. I think this bet can pay off for me. But since I cannot see or control all the random events that will affect what happens to my money. I know the chance of me being wrong is large. Therefore I will stay light on my feet, ready to jump this way or that when whatever is going to happen happens."
Minor Axiom V
Beware the historians trap.
The Historian's trap is a particular kind of orderly illusion. It is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that history repeats itself. People who hold this belief - which is to say perhaps ninety-nine out of every hundred people on earth - believe as a corollary proposition that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.... Don't fall into this trap. It is true that history repeats itself sometimes, but most often it doesn't, and in any case it never does so in a reliable enough way that you can prudently bet money on it.
Minor Axiom Vl
Beware the Chartist's illusion.
This is defined as characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist.
Minor Axiom Vll
Beware the correlation and causality delusions.
Correlations and causalities are used to report findings in experiments and social studies. Most people use the two as if they are interchangeable, and, while a causality is a correlation, mistaking a correlation with a cause-effect relationship is a logical fallacy. Knowing the difference between the two is important for properly interpreting the results of experiments and studies.
Minor Axiom Vlll
Beware the Gambler's Fallacy.
This is my lucky day.
Major Axiom 5 :- On Patterns - The Emperor Axiom
Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.
Do not look for order where order does not exist. Do not overlook the large role chance takes in any speculation. Study information in whatever speculative medium to improve chances and take your best shot. Stay light on your feet ready to jump this way or that. You are dealing with chaos, as long as you are alert to that fact you can keep yourself from getting hurt.
Internal Monolog goes:
OK. I've done my homework as well as I know how. I think this bet can pay off for me. But since I cannot see or control all the random events that will affect what happens to my money. I know the chance of me being wrong is large. Therefore I will stay light on my feet, ready to jump this way or that when whatever is going to happen happens."
Minor Axiom V
Beware the historians trap.
The Historian's trap is a particular kind of orderly illusion. It is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that history repeats itself. People who hold this belief - which is to say perhaps ninety-nine out of every hundred people on earth - believe as a corollary proposition that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.... Don't fall into this trap. It is true that history repeats itself sometimes, but most often it doesn't, and in any case it never does so in a reliable enough way that you can prudently bet money on it.
Minor Axiom Vl
Beware the Chartist's illusion.
This is defined as characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist.
Minor Axiom Vll
Beware the correlation and causality delusions.
Correlations and causalities are used to report findings in experiments and social studies. Most people use the two as if they are interchangeable, and, while a causality is a correlation, mistaking a correlation with a cause-effect relationship is a logical fallacy. Knowing the difference between the two is important for properly interpreting the results of experiments and studies.
Minor Axiom Vlll
Beware the Gambler's Fallacy.
This is my lucky day.
Patterns simplified
http://www.vfmdirect.in/2013/08/how-to-identify-trend.html
Bullish trend : It cannot get more simpler :
Bearish trend : It cannot get more simpler :
Hourly Chart
Daily Chart
http://www.vfmdirect.in/2013/08/how-to-identify-trend.html
Bullish trend : It cannot get more simpler :
Bearish trend : It cannot get more simpler :
Hourly Chart
Daily Chart
The Zurich Axioms - Part IV
Major Axiom 6 :- On Mobility
Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
Be ready to jump away from trouble or seize opportunity. You do not have to bounce from one speculation to another like a ping-pong ball. All your moves should be made only after a careful assessment of the odds for and against, and no move should be made for trivial reasons. But when a venture is clearly souring, or when something clearly more promising comes into view, then you must sever those roots and go. Don't let the roots get too thick to cut.
Minor Axiom lX
Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
Minor Axiom X
Never hesitate to abandon a venture of something more attractive comes into view.
Major Axiom 7 :- On Intuition
A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.
Though intuition is not infallible, it can be a useful speculative tool, if handled with care and skepticism. If you are hit by strong hunch - put it to the test. Trust it only if you can explained it. That is only if you can identify within your mind a stored body of information out of which that hunch must reasonably be supposed to have arisen. Be wary of any intuition that seems to promise some outcome you want badly.
Minor Axiom Xl
Never confuse a hunch with a hope.
Major Axiom 8 :- On Religion and the Occult
It is unlikely that god's plan for the universe includes making you rich.
Assume you are on your own. Rely on nothing but your own wits.
Minor Axiom Xll
If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
Minor Axiom Xlll
A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.
***
Major Axiom 6 :- On Mobility
Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
Be ready to jump away from trouble or seize opportunity. You do not have to bounce from one speculation to another like a ping-pong ball. All your moves should be made only after a careful assessment of the odds for and against, and no move should be made for trivial reasons. But when a venture is clearly souring, or when something clearly more promising comes into view, then you must sever those roots and go. Don't let the roots get too thick to cut.
Minor Axiom lX
Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
Minor Axiom X
Never hesitate to abandon a venture of something more attractive comes into view.
Major Axiom 7 :- On Intuition
A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.
Though intuition is not infallible, it can be a useful speculative tool, if handled with care and skepticism. If you are hit by strong hunch - put it to the test. Trust it only if you can explained it. That is only if you can identify within your mind a stored body of information out of which that hunch must reasonably be supposed to have arisen. Be wary of any intuition that seems to promise some outcome you want badly.
Minor Axiom Xl
Never confuse a hunch with a hope.
Major Axiom 8 :- On Religion and the Occult
It is unlikely that god's plan for the universe includes making you rich.
Assume you are on your own. Rely on nothing but your own wits.
Minor Axiom Xll
If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
Minor Axiom Xlll
A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.
***
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