Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 03 nov 09

on monday night dow after wild swings between 169+ve to 34 -ve finally recovered during the closing minutes to close at 76 points +ve. European markets had closed around 1% +ve with uk ftse closing up by 1.2% +ve. Brazil was closed on monday. Asian markets fearing of chinas rise of nearly 2.5% yesterday and hoping that it may correct today, have opened flat but should close in the +ve today.

For indian markets expect a flat to negative opening to retest fridays lows of 4688 a fall below which should see a bigger slide. On the higher side an initial cross over of 4725 can take it to 4752 which should be the high of the day as bears may not allow nifty to rise above 4752 because a rise above 4752 can open the gates towards 4800 level. Intraday traders may plan to buy futures if there is a initial fall below 4680 towards 4650 index levels for gain towards end of the day. Shorting may be planned short of 4750 index levels with must quit point above 4755 to 4760 nse index levels.

Traders should expect a reasonable corrective upward bounce in indian markets in a day or two or after the initial fall on tuesday. Compared to rest of the world markets, it has fallen the most during last two weeks and as on friday it has already fallen consecutively for 5 days in a row.

 

[pranayk]

Chart Analysis for 4th November 2009

http://img688.imageshack.us/i/19508712.png/

 

[pranayk]

markets for 4th nov 09

till such time nse index remains below 4680 , ruthlessly short nifty future on every intraday rise. Intraday traders, investors holding stocks & futures may boldly short nifty future as well as reliance industries on every intraday rise keeping a strict quit point around 4707 nse index levels. Just follow the trend and make the trend your best friend. A decisive breach of 1750 by reliance can see it fall like a stone towards 1500 where only one can think of buying reliance & when reliance falls how can one expect nifty to rise?

In case there is no recovery in nifty, then be absolutely sure to see nifty in next day or two falling initially to fibonacci support around 4401 followed by 4353 a breach of which may say final good bye to much hyped bull run from march 09 as one does not have to wait till the support at 3919.however if nifty stabilizes around the lows of 4500 levels and bounces back then a cross over of 4751 can take nifty towards next resistance around 4868 in next few days. However for the time being one should be bold enough to ruthlessly short nifty future on every intraday of nse index towards 4680 levels with must quit above 4705 nse index levels

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON WEDNESDAY, THE MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO OPEN FLAT TO WEAK WITH NIFTY SLIDING TO TEST THE LOWS OF TUESDAY AT 4540.ON 21 AUGUST A GAP WAS LEFT BY BOTH SENSEX & NIFTY AT 15275 & 4538 RESPECTIVELY. MOST LIKELY BOTH SENSEX & NIFTY WILL TRY TO CLOSE THAT GAP FIRST IF AT ALL SOME SORT OF CORRECTIVE UPWARD BOUNCE IS TO BE EXPECTED FROM HERE. OTHER WISE THERE IS NO FURTHER SUPPORT BELOW 4538 EXCEPT THE FIBONACCI 61.8% SUPPORT AT 4401 FOLLOWED BY 4353. ON THE HIGHER SIDE IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR NIFTY TO CROSS 4615 LEVELS BECAUSE EARLY SHORTERS MAY START TO BOLDLY SHORT NIFTY FUTURES JUST AROUND 4600 NSE LEVELS WITH QUIT POINT ABOVE 4615.FURTHER SHORTING MAY BE INITIATED JUST SHORT OF 4630 WITH QUIT ABOVE 4636 TO 4640. NEXT, 4661 & 4680 ARE FORMIDABLE RESISTANCES THAT WILL ATTRACT MORE SHORTERS TO SHORT BELOW THESE LEVELS WITH QUIT POINT ABOVE 4707. AMIDST THE GLOOM & DOOM HOVERING OVER THE MARKETS, TRADERS SHOULD BE MENTALLY PREPARED FOR A REASONABLE SHARP UPWARD BOUNCE SHORTLY. SO, SHORTERS MAY LIKE TO APPLY REASONABLE QUIT POINTS ABOVE VARIOUS INTRADAY HIGHS OF TUESDAY AS SL FOR THEIR SHORTS.

 

[adi02]

Hi Pranay,

First of all I should appreciate you for the accuracy with which you predict market behaviors. I am sure it would not be an exaggeration if i address you as Nifty Genius.

Now coming to the dire problem I am in. Let me list down the recent trades and current positions.

Auro Pharma 1 Lot November Future bought at @805.95 on Oct 14; (Lot size 700) Closed at 737 -- 50K loss

Holding one lot of NF November series @ 4,960.00
Holding 2 lots of BNF November Series @ 8,600.00 (Avg).

And some 25K worth of Hindalco options which are trading at almost 0 Value now.

Pranay, I did not exit these positions as I held them for short term positional, hoping for a bounce back. But now that seems like a distant reality. Please advise me. I know you generally dont reply to posts but I would be very grateful if you can give me some direction to me here.

Regards
Adi

 

[kandid]

markets for 3rd nov 09

nifty has fallen continuously for 5 days. Generally in 9 out of 10 cases, after a fall for 5 consecutive days, a reasonable bounce for at least a day or two should be expected, however in this operator infected markets everything goes against the expectation & it is wiser only to expect the unexpected

well said pranayk :clapping: "expect the unexpected" :clapping:

damn you operators:annoyed::annoyed:

 

[kandid]

still holding a nifty long , waiting for that elusive relief:annoyed: rally to exit.

thanks pranayk for all your efforts.:clap:

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 04 nov 09

on tuesday night dow recovered by 70 points to close only 17 points down at the end after dow & hedge fund operators entirely manipulated dow futures negatively throughout the day that adversely impacted most of the asian markets and european markets during the trading on tuesday. European markets closed 1% to 1.5% down with uk ftse falling by 1.3%. Brazil again continued to remain +ve with another 1.8% rise. Having been badly deceived by dow futures yesterday, asian markets have opened slightly +ve but may give up entire gain by end of their trading again fearing what will be announced by fed chairman on wednesday night. In weak market condition, one should realize that whatever announcement comes from fed chairman, it is going to add to the weakness only.

For indian markets, expect a flat to luke warm opening at the back of mild asian markets. Although a corrective bounce is expected, as long as nse index remains below 4700, every rise towards this level should be used for ruthless shorting of nifty future, shorting of higher calls and buying of lower puts for good gains during the month.

 

[pranayk]

Hi Pranay,

First of all I should appreciate you for the accuracy with which you predict market behaviors. I am sure it would not be an exaggeration if i address you as Nifty Genius.

Now coming to the dire problem I am in. Let me list down the recent trades and current positions.

Auro Pharma 1 Lot November Future bought at @805.95 on Oct 14; (Lot size 700) Closed at 737 -- 50K loss

Holding one lot of NF November series @ 4,960.00
Holding 2 lots of BNF November Series @ 8,600.00 (Avg).

And some 25K worth of Hindalco options which are trading at almost 0 Value now.

Pranay, I did not exit these positions as I held them for short term positional, hoping for a bounce back. But now that seems like a distant reality. Please advise me. I know you generally dont reply to posts but I would be very grateful if you can give me some direction to me here.

Regards
Adi

You seems to be trapped. Stoploss should have been used.
The behavior of market seems to be unpredictable, presently very less probability of uptrend. Nevertheless try to come out in upward corrective rally, thus minimising your loss.
You will get lot of opportunity in future to cover up your losses.

Pranay

 

[cmak]

coming to the dire problem I am in. Let me list down the recent trades and current positions.

Auro Pharma 1 Lot November Future bought at @805.95 on Oct 14; (Lot size 700) Closed at 737 -- 50K loss

Holding one lot of NF November series @ 4,960.00
Holding 2 lots of BNF November Series @ 8,600.00 (Avg).

And some 25K worth of Hindalco options which are trading at almost 0 Value now.

Pranay, I did not exit these positions as I held them for short term positional, hoping for a bounce back. But now that seems like a distant reality. Please advise me. I know you generally dont reply to posts but I would be very grateful if you can give me some direction to me here.

Regards
Adi

Adi02 dear,
It is true that stock market sure is an ocean of wealth... but it does not mean you accumulate more than you can carry. Sometimes accumulation may give you bumper profit but most times it is always lead to traps.

Mistakes happens with everyone... You try to exit with minimum loss on any rise in the market (in your stocks specifically).
Next time store only that much stock which you can carry to shore yourself.

Good luck

CMAK

 

[pranayk]

Chart Analysis

http://img690.imageshack.us/i/56402574.png/