Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
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weekly markets analysis for week ending 13 nov 09
last week saw a face saving rise of about 2% after 2 weeks of savage falls from the high of 5181 to a low of 4540.still indian markets continue to be the worst performing markets compared to rest of the world equity markets. Besides the astrological factors which was mostly responsible for the fall from around 3rd week of october, cyclic fall in other world markets too contributed their quota towards the fall.
Coming week is likely to see continuation of the upward move in the markets & the move may take the indices to a level when more participants start to think that perhaps the correction is over, that is the point when the markets are likely to surprise every one by resuming the next leg of the fall. As long as nifty does not decisively cross and close above the critical level of 5052, one should never even think of the resumption of the bull run. Nifty faces initial hurdle around the critical level of 4868 and a cross over of this level may be the first indication that perhaps nifty may move towards the magic level of 5052 to resume the bull run. Failure to decisively cross 4868 may strengthen the bears to resume ruthless shorting again for the next down leg of the correction to breach recent low of 4540 to move towards the critical level of 4353.
Well, if the bulls have to survive, this is the best opportunity for them to give another solid push to continue with the present up move & take nifty by hook or by crook towards 4868 levels & close above it, that will trigger another wave of massive short covering to take nifty towards the desired bullish level above 5052 through the important 61.8% fibonacci resistance level around 4949.
If one leaves the indian markets to move on its own based on the internal conditions, there are no negative aspects to pull down the markets & with the news of disinvestments pouring in, there is every possibility of indian markets moving up, but it will always be the external factors that will be a big stumbling block in the progress of markets for the days ahead.
last week saw a face saving rise of about 2% after 2 weeks of savage falls from the high of 5181 to a low of 4540.still indian markets continue to be the worst performing markets compared to rest of the world equity markets. Besides the astrological factors which was mostly responsible for the fall from around 3rd week of october, cyclic fall in other world markets too contributed their quota towards the fall.
Coming week is likely to see continuation of the upward move in the markets & the move may take the indices to a level when more participants start to think that perhaps the correction is over, that is the point when the markets are likely to surprise every one by resuming the next leg of the fall. As long as nifty does not decisively cross and close above the critical level of 5052, one should never even think of the resumption of the bull run. Nifty faces initial hurdle around the critical level of 4868 and a cross over of this level may be the first indication that perhaps nifty may move towards the magic level of 5052 to resume the bull run. Failure to decisively cross 4868 may strengthen the bears to resume ruthless shorting again for the next down leg of the correction to breach recent low of 4540 to move towards the critical level of 4353.
Well, if the bulls have to survive, this is the best opportunity for them to give another solid push to continue with the present up move & take nifty by hook or by crook towards 4868 levels & close above it, that will trigger another wave of massive short covering to take nifty towards the desired bullish level above 5052 through the important 61.8% fibonacci resistance level around 4949.
If one leaves the indian markets to move on its own based on the internal conditions, there are no negative aspects to pull down the markets & with the news of disinvestments pouring in, there is every possibility of indian markets moving up, but it will always be the external factors that will be a big stumbling block in the progress of markets for the days ahead.
HELP NEEDED..............
Does any body know about site which provide following details about a scrip on one screen/page?
1) Last 15/6 days high, low & closed prices
2) Volume of trading for last 6 days
3) Weekly high & low
4) Fortnightly high & low
5) Monthly high & low
6) 3 months high & low
7) 6 months high & low
8) Yearly high & low
It is not like that data are not available on site but it is time consuming to get above data from various resources at one place and analyse.
thanks
Pranay
Does any body know about site which provide following details about a scrip on one screen/page?
1) Last 15/6 days high, low & closed prices
2) Volume of trading for last 6 days
3) Weekly high & low
4) Fortnightly high & low
5) Monthly high & low
6) 3 months high & low
7) 6 months high & low
8) Yearly high & low
It is not like that data are not available on site but it is time consuming to get above data from various resources at one place and analyse.
thanks
Pranay
Last edited:
Hi Pranay,
I Have .txt Files Of NSE Scrips, NIFTY, Nifty Future, Bank Nifty Future & CNXIT Future, In The Following Format.
DATE, OHLCV
I Am Quite Sure Depending On Whatever Charting Software You Might Be Using, Small Query Designed For Your Program Could Give You The Output As Desired By You.
Let Me Know If You Need The Data.
Happy & Safer Analysing
SavantGarde
I Have .txt Files Of NSE Scrips, NIFTY, Nifty Future, Bank Nifty Future & CNXIT Future, In The Following Format.
DATE, OHLCV
I Am Quite Sure Depending On Whatever Charting Software You Might Be Using, Small Query Designed For Your Program Could Give You The Output As Desired By You.
Let Me Know If You Need The Data.
Happy & Safer Analysing
SavantGarde
weekly technicals for week ending 13 nov 09
there was no change to analysis on the monthly charts of the indices and the monthly indicators continue to generate bullish signals for the long term. However the low 0f 4540 made during this month has not only breached the low of october at 4688 but also has breached the september lows of 4577. Monthly analysis given last week are same as under:-
even though the markets fell badly during the second half of october, yet the indicators in the monthly charts have not undergone any significant change to indicate bearishness. The low of october was at 4688 that was much higher than the lows of september which was at 4577.september high was at 5087 and october high of 5181 was a higher high than september. However the breach of the monthly support line that came from start of this bull market from march 09 and closing below it is an early sign of weakness. Other aspects of monthly charts as was given last week is reproduced below without much change.
The perfect doji of august month with its top at 16002 & 4744 having been decisively crossed in september should at least see 3 months of higher highs taking it to november end to make higher highs every month, even it can go to consecutive 5 or 8 months of higher highs in monthly charts. Both simple & exponential 20 month moving average coming from above the 50 month ma and turning upwards without breaching 50 mma is a mega bullish signal for the long term.8 month simple moving average coming from below 20 month sms and breaching it to move up above both 13 month & 20 month sma during the month is occurring for the first time after the onset of previous bull market in april 2003. This ma cross over in monthly charts has the potential for another 3 to 5 years of bull run to which long & medium term investors should take full advantage of as we are presently in the initial stages of a mega bull market that started in march 09 & may go up till 2013 as per long term monthly charts. Hard core short term traders should keep at least half of their money for long term investments in their favorite stocks and carry on with short term or day trading both on the long & short side as per short term market movements only in balance half of the money to take full advantage of long term bull market.
As regards the weekly indicators are concerned, most of them give definite sign of weakness. Slow stochastic, rsi, macd, w%r, adx & even roc are all giving signs of further falls. So unless there are solid bullish moves this week to turn the weekly indicators upwards from where they are now, there is every possibility of further falls. The only saving grace being all these indicators are price as well as trend following indicators and can change direction as per the change in price. Weekly nvi still rising to higher levels gives a hidden indication that informed people and big fund houses are still buying heavily on every fall. Certain bullish indications in the long term weekly charts as was given last week are given below to keep the spirit of the bulls higher & higher.
As was mentioned during previous weeks certain mega bullish weekly indications like 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Secondly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels. A much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252. These are strong long term bullish signals that encourages long & medium term investors to boldly go long on every decline of markets for super gains in coming months.
In the daily charts, most of the daily indicators have generated signs of revival of bullishness after 3 days of rise in the markets. Most of the price & trend following indicators have come out of the lower zone and are looking up around the neutral zone to move into the upper zone. However with same indicators giving bearish signals in the weekly charts, all the +ve indications in the daily charts may be short lived unless massive up move change the weekly indicators in favor of the bulls. So, over all one may expect a range bound move with a +ve bias during the week
there was no change to analysis on the monthly charts of the indices and the monthly indicators continue to generate bullish signals for the long term. However the low 0f 4540 made during this month has not only breached the low of october at 4688 but also has breached the september lows of 4577. Monthly analysis given last week are same as under:-
even though the markets fell badly during the second half of october, yet the indicators in the monthly charts have not undergone any significant change to indicate bearishness. The low of october was at 4688 that was much higher than the lows of september which was at 4577.september high was at 5087 and october high of 5181 was a higher high than september. However the breach of the monthly support line that came from start of this bull market from march 09 and closing below it is an early sign of weakness. Other aspects of monthly charts as was given last week is reproduced below without much change.
The perfect doji of august month with its top at 16002 & 4744 having been decisively crossed in september should at least see 3 months of higher highs taking it to november end to make higher highs every month, even it can go to consecutive 5 or 8 months of higher highs in monthly charts. Both simple & exponential 20 month moving average coming from above the 50 month ma and turning upwards without breaching 50 mma is a mega bullish signal for the long term.8 month simple moving average coming from below 20 month sms and breaching it to move up above both 13 month & 20 month sma during the month is occurring for the first time after the onset of previous bull market in april 2003. This ma cross over in monthly charts has the potential for another 3 to 5 years of bull run to which long & medium term investors should take full advantage of as we are presently in the initial stages of a mega bull market that started in march 09 & may go up till 2013 as per long term monthly charts. Hard core short term traders should keep at least half of their money for long term investments in their favorite stocks and carry on with short term or day trading both on the long & short side as per short term market movements only in balance half of the money to take full advantage of long term bull market.
As regards the weekly indicators are concerned, most of them give definite sign of weakness. Slow stochastic, rsi, macd, w%r, adx & even roc are all giving signs of further falls. So unless there are solid bullish moves this week to turn the weekly indicators upwards from where they are now, there is every possibility of further falls. The only saving grace being all these indicators are price as well as trend following indicators and can change direction as per the change in price. Weekly nvi still rising to higher levels gives a hidden indication that informed people and big fund houses are still buying heavily on every fall. Certain bullish indications in the long term weekly charts as was given last week are given below to keep the spirit of the bulls higher & higher.
As was mentioned during previous weeks certain mega bullish weekly indications like 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Secondly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels. A much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252. These are strong long term bullish signals that encourages long & medium term investors to boldly go long on every decline of markets for super gains in coming months.
In the daily charts, most of the daily indicators have generated signs of revival of bullishness after 3 days of rise in the markets. Most of the price & trend following indicators have come out of the lower zone and are looking up around the neutral zone to move into the upper zone. However with same indicators giving bearish signals in the weekly charts, all the +ve indications in the daily charts may be short lived unless massive up move change the weekly indicators in favor of the bulls. So, over all one may expect a range bound move with a +ve bias during the week
elliott wave count for week ending 13 nov 09
as per ew, we confine our studies to the analysis given last week with addition of present upward retracement from the low of 4540.
It is assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and can move up to cross the all time highs of 6357 .this 3rd major up wave will have 5 sub waves with 3 sub waves up and 2 sub waves flat or down. On 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. The 2nd sub wave of the 3rd wave was completed on 19th august at the low of 4353.
The 3rd sub leg of 3rd wave has perhaps been completed at the high of 5181 and the recent fall till 4540 was the 4th sub leg of 3rd wave which may be in the form of a 3,3,5 flat to move up again till around 5150 levels to fall again towards the recent low of 4540 to be followed by resumption of the bull run or the abc zigzag is completed at the low of 4540 and bull run has resumed which only will be confirmed after a decisive cross over of 5052.
Presently, the fall from the high of 5181 in the form of abc zigzag had its "a" down wave completed at 22rd october low of 4969, "b" up wave went up till the high of 5052 and c down wave got completed at the low of 4540.this is clearly visible in the daily eod charts. Although charts of lower time frames of 60 minutes and below show a distinct 5 wave down move from the high of 5181 to the low of 4540 and the present up move of 3 days as the a,b & c retracement, yet as long as the recent low of 4540 is not breached again, we still continue with our belief that nifty having made a low at 4540 has completed the a,b c correction and has resumed the up move to either cross recent high of 5181 for resumption of the bull run or again fall from around the level of 5150 levels towards the recent low of 4540 to make a bigger 3,3 5 flat formation before resumption of the mega up move.
as per ew, we confine our studies to the analysis given last week with addition of present upward retracement from the low of 4540.
It is assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and can move up to cross the all time highs of 6357 .this 3rd major up wave will have 5 sub waves with 3 sub waves up and 2 sub waves flat or down. On 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. The 2nd sub wave of the 3rd wave was completed on 19th august at the low of 4353.
The 3rd sub leg of 3rd wave has perhaps been completed at the high of 5181 and the recent fall till 4540 was the 4th sub leg of 3rd wave which may be in the form of a 3,3,5 flat to move up again till around 5150 levels to fall again towards the recent low of 4540 to be followed by resumption of the bull run or the abc zigzag is completed at the low of 4540 and bull run has resumed which only will be confirmed after a decisive cross over of 5052.
Presently, the fall from the high of 5181 in the form of abc zigzag had its "a" down wave completed at 22rd october low of 4969, "b" up wave went up till the high of 5052 and c down wave got completed at the low of 4540.this is clearly visible in the daily eod charts. Although charts of lower time frames of 60 minutes and below show a distinct 5 wave down move from the high of 5181 to the low of 4540 and the present up move of 3 days as the a,b & c retracement, yet as long as the recent low of 4540 is not breached again, we still continue with our belief that nifty having made a low at 4540 has completed the a,b c correction and has resumed the up move to either cross recent high of 5181 for resumption of the bull run or again fall from around the level of 5150 levels towards the recent low of 4540 to make a bigger 3,3 5 flat formation before resumption of the mega up move.
weekly trading range for week ending 13 nov 09 t
the broad trading range for the week may be confined to the 62% fibonacci resistance of 4936 on the higher side and 4610 on the lower side. A decisive breach of 4868 followed by 4936 can take nifty up towards "the bears watch out" level of 5052 and a decisive breach of "bulls better wake up" level of 4610 may see a new low below 4540.
the broad trading range for the week may be confined to the 62% fibonacci resistance of 4936 on the higher side and 4610 on the lower side. A decisive breach of 4868 followed by 4936 can take nifty up towards "the bears watch out" level of 5052 and a decisive breach of "bulls better wake up" level of 4610 may see a new low below 4540.
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