Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[pranayk]

markets for 5th nov 09

well, the much expected corrective bounce came & the bounce came with a bang. Although the volume and advance to decline ratio was no where near the levels as was during the days of market falls, yet the position at which nifty has been left at the close of wednesday, has a lot of scope for further up move in case nse index by hook or by crook crosses and sustains above the critical level of 4752.

In case nse index sustains above 4752, then nothing sort of the most critical level 4868 should be expected to be the next target for nifty. The resistance around 4752 is like a sumo wrestler that can only be breached deceptively without a fight through a gap up opening. It is not easy to have a gap up opening without the support of a solid dow on wednesday night which too depends on announcements by fed chairman.

As per history, since most of the asian markets were highly +ve on wednesday morning, expecting something great from dow on wednesday night will be a bit too much. In any case whether the low volume short covering rally that has started on wednesday will be short lived with the wednesdays highs at 4717 being enough for the bulls or still there is some thing left in the rally will entirely depend on the un predictive dow on wednesday night.

If one goes as per daily eod chart, on wednesday nifty has given an in side bar. So in case the highs of the out side bar of friday at 4730 is crossed, it will trigger another quick & sharp up move due to further short covering. For intraday trading on thursday, nse index has initial support around 4695, 4682 followed by make or break support at 4663 a breach of which will induce ruthless shorting again. On the higher side a decisive cross over of 4752 will trigger the neck line of a reverse h&s formation that can easily take nifty up by another 100+ points towards the most critical resistance around 4868

TRADERS AND INVESTORS MUST REALIZE THAT ONE DAY MEGA RISE OF 504 POINTS OF SENSEX AND A 147 POINT RISE IN NIFTY DOES NOT ENTIRELY TAKE AWAY THE BEARISHNESS FROM THE MARKETS. IT HAS NOT EVEN RECOVERED THE MINIMUM REQUIREMENT OF 38.2% OF THE BIG FALL FROM THE 20 OCTOBER HIGHS OF 5181 TO THE 3RD NOV LOWS OF 4540. IF ONE HAS A LOOK AT THE INTRADAY CHART ABOVE, 38.2% RETRACEMENT COMES AT 4784 & ONLY A CROSS OVER OF THIS WILL TAKE IT UP TILL 50% AND 61.8% RETRACEMENTS TO 4860 & 4936 RESPECTIVELY. TILL SUCH TIME NSE INDEX DOES NOT DECISIVELY CROSS THESE FIBONACCI LEVELS, ONE CAN SAFELY ASSUME TO BE IN A SHORT TERM DOWN TREND.

ONLY A DECISIVE CROSS OVER ABOVE THE HIGH OF THE 2ND WAVE OF THIS DOWN MOVE AT 5052 WILL CONFIRM THAT BULL PHASE HAS RESUMED. SO ONE OR TWO DAYS LOW VOLUME SHORT COVERING RALLY IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR TRAPPED BULLS TO FIND AN ESCAPE ROUTE ONLY BUT CERTAINLY NOT TO ADD TO THE LONG POSITIONS AS OF NOW. IT WAS RELIANCE WHICH HAD BEEN FALLING CONTINUOUSLY SINCE 20 OCTOBER THAT BROUGHT THE MARKET DOWN. ON WEDNESDAY RELIANCE WENT UP BY 5% SO INDICES ROSE BY MORE THAN 3%.SO DONT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RELIANCE AGAIN FALLING TO BRING DOWN THE INDICES. KEEP AN EYE ON THE CRITICAL NIFTY LEVEL OF 4663 ON THE LOWER SIDE AND 4752 ON THE HIGHER SIDE TO SEE A GOOD MOVE IN THE DIRECTION OF BREACH.

 

[cmak]

markets for 5th nov 09

If one goes as per daily eod chart, on wednesday nifty has given an in side bar. So in case the highs of the out side bar of friday at 4730 is crossed, it will trigger another quick & sharp up move due to further short covering. For intraday trading on thursday, nse index has initial support around 4695, 4682 followed by make or break support at 4663 a breach of which will induce ruthless shorting again. On the higher side a decisive cross over of 4752 will trigger the neck line of a reverse h&s formation that can easily take nifty up by another 100+ points towards the most critical resistance around 4868

Thank you PranayK... for these levels.
But.. though you are looking up in coming days... I am not comfortable with today's market behaviour. I feel there is some more pain is left out which we may see in near future.
I think, For tomorrow it is not 4752 to break up but clearing the zone of 4785 and 4804. The market may take some time to cross 4800 zone.


CMAK

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 05 nov 09

dow very much lived to its great reputation of a deceptive and mafia controlled index when it fell by 128 points during closing minutes to fall from 158+ve to close flat at just 30+ve.this was after a highly bullish very low volume mafia controlled dow futures which remained highly +ve for the day, inducing all the asian & european markets to close highly +ve. Fooled by deceptive actions of us markets, european markets had closed 1.5% to 2.5% with uk ftse closing up by 1.4%,dax up by 1.7% & cac up by 2.4%. Brazil too continued with bull run with a 2% rise.

Well it was clearly mentioned in this newsletter that when asian markets are highly bullish, dow just cant be bullish although its deceptive futures were highly bullish. Asian markets having been deceived yesterday have opened in the deep in the red & may continue to dance to the tune of dow operators deceptive game plan by remaining in red.

For indian markets the exuberance shown yesterday due to low volume short covering coupled with highly +ve deceptive dow futures, may perhaps work in reverse gear today when nifty may not even be able to cross the critical level of 4752.although technically, the corrective short term rally that has started from yesterday may go up further to at least the nearest fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 4784, but be sure that dow & hedge fund operators will not allow indian markets to go to that level at least for next few days.

For intraday trading on thursday, now it has to be seen whether nifty crosses even 4730 or not. On the lower side chances of a fall to 4682 followed by 4663 may test the patience of the bulls as below 4663 ruthless shorting which had vanished yesterday may again resume. Reliance again holds the key as external operators may bring down indices by pulling down reliance.

 

[cmak]

morning update at 8 am 05 nov 09
-- nifty may not even be able to cross the critical level of 4752.although technically, the corrective short term rally that has started from yesterday may go up further to at least the nearest fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 4784, but be sure that dow & hedge fund operators will not allow indian markets to go to that level at least for next few days.

Thank you PranayK....

As you have said earlier - 'ALWAYS EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED'.

CMAK

 

[pranayk]

CHART ANALYSIS


http://img11.imageshack.us/i/26355543.png/

 

[pranayk]

markets for 6th nov 09

it was a great day for indian markets. With asian markets deep in the red, it opened weak,then breached the critical level at 4663, went down till 4610, then on nifty showed remarkable recovery to breach each resistance one after the other to retest 4700. Bulls were eyeing for the level of 4730 which too was easily crossed followed by the most critical level at 4752 that activated the neck line of a reverse head & solder level. The moment 4752 was decisively breached nifty went up like a tracer bullet to 4776 just short of the 38.2% fibonacci retracement level around 4784 which most likely may be skipped on friday to straight head for next critical level at 4868.

The level of 4868 is so critical that a decisive cross over of 4668 can easily take nifty above the recent high of 5181 by end of next week or mid month to to prove the power of november month which has always made a higher high than october highs since 2000(except for the bearish year of 2008)

for intraday trading on friday, after crossing of 38.2% retracement level at 4784, nifty will straight head for 50% level at 4860. As the critical level exists around 4868 levels, this together with week end considerations may be a formidable resistance for friday.however with favorable dow and buoyant asian markets if nifty manages to decisively cross 4868, then due to massive short covering coupled with investment buying, there is a distinct possibility of testing 4900 before close.on the lower side 4756 and 4713 are support levels a breach of which can threaten nifty to fall to 4677 followed by 4660 from where bull will again take charge.

MOST OF THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY EOD CHART AFTER HAVING BOTTOMED OUT HAVE STARTED TO MOVE UP, OUT OF THE LOWER ZONE DEPICTING THAT SOME MORE UP MOVE IS STILL LEFT FOR NIFTY IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. HOWEVER TILL SUCH TIME NIFTY DOES NOT DECISIVELY CROSS THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 4868, THERE WILL ALWAYS REMAIN A FEAR OF FURTHER FALLS TO RETEST RECENT LOWS TO FORM A REASONABLE BOTTOM FOR RESUMPTION OF BULL RUN. ON A WEEKLY BASIS, NIFTY HAS CLOSED LOWER FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE WEEKS AND LAST FRIDAY ON 30 OCTOBER NIFTY HAD CLOSED AT 4711. SO, BEARS MAY TRY THEIR BEST TO BRING NIFTY DOWN TO CLOSE BELOW 4700 LEVELS TO MAKE IT 3 WEEKS OF CONSECUTIVE FALLS IN A ROW TO STRENGTHEN THE BEARISH SENTIMENT.

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 06 nov 09

dow was remarkably up by more than 200 points to close above 10000 mark again at 10005.european markets which had closed earlier when dow was mildly up, closed around .5% with uk ftse closing up by .3% but cac closed up by 1%. Brazil continued with its mega bullish move with another rise of 1.4%. Asian markets have opened strongly but some may give up the gains due to week end considerations. Sgx nifty which is trading at 4833 with very low volumes may give up most of the gains before opening of indian markets.

For indian markets, expect a big gap up opening much above 4800 levels. Short covering may take nifty closer towards the 4850 level very near to critical level at 4868. In case nse index decisively crosses 4854 & 4868 then one can see another wave of massive short covering to take it towards 4900+ levels.

At higher levels, option traders may quietly buy a put of 4700 and hold for next week. On every intraday decline towards or below 4750 traders may buy 4800 or 4900 calls and carry for next week in the ratio of 2 calls to 1 put.

Traders must remember that resumption of bull phase can only be confirmed after the decisive cross over of 5052 next week, till that time there will always remain the fear of continuation of short term abc down correction of which we are now in the b up leg after a down leg took nifty down till 4540. If index crosses 5052 then one may be reasonably sure that the short term correction is over at the bottom of 4540 reached on tuesday

 

[pranayk]

CHART ANALYSIS


http://img33.imageshack.us/i/55667280.png/

 

[findvikas]

CHART ANALYSIS


http://img33.imageshack.us/i/55667280.png/

just an advise... you can use TinyPic(dot)com for image upload and paste the direct image link here so that its visible within site.

 

[pranayk]