Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
- Thread starter pranayk
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markets for 04 aug 09
finally the break out of the june highs of 4693 came but it came after another minor intraday jolt when nifty fell to 4620 levels reminding everyone of the fridays similar intraday jolt to 4588 levels. But nifty bounced back quickly, again from the critical 13 hour ema as can be seen in the chart below. Although one expected a much sharper up move after the break out of the 4693 zone, but since the break out came around 3 pm it was more of short covering than buying. Perhaps the buying will come after another intraday correction to the breakout point of 4693 or slightly below it towards 4680 or 4666 levels.
If one has a look at the chart below one will notice that nifty not only was having a major resistance between 4650 to 4690 levels, it was also confined within a big rectangular pattern for the last 10 days. So if the things work fine , then nifty will again try to come back to the break out point or slightly below it to again break out of the rectangle with vigor & vitality to cover the height of the rectangle of about 200 points to move up above 4800 levels.
Although the so called fibonacci level of 4788 which is the 61.8% retracement level from last bull market highs of 6357 to the last bear market lows of 2252, will offer some resistance and pull down nifty to induce a feeling that we are still in the bear market, yet one will find to his great surprise that the 61.8% level at 4788 will be surpassed in lightening speed after a few days of pause & after giving some respect to this level around 4788. In bull markets the fibonacci retracement levels do not play a major roll except a pause as had happened to the fibonacci levels of 50% at 4303 and 38.2% levels at 3820. However traders must keep in mind this area around 4788 to take a pause.
For intraday trading on tuesday, traders who have bought at higher levels towards end on monday may be given a jolt when nifty will be brought down below 4693 levels towards 4666 to liquidate weaker hands. Overnight weak world markets & as usual very low volume sgx nifty will play their depressing role towards it. However bold traders who trust the present bull market and buy further on declines will be suitably rewarded
FOR TRADING ON TUESDAY, THE LOW BREAK OUT VOLUME ON MONDAY MAY BE A DAMPENER OTHERWISE MARKETS SHOULD UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES MOVE UP TO 4747 INITIALLY AND IF SUSTAINS ABOVE 4750 THEN IT CAN GO UP TILL 4788 WHERE SOME PROFIT BOOKING MAY BE EXPECTED. BUT SUPPOSE NIFTY FALLS INITIALLY TO SUB 4700 LEVELS TOWARDS 4680, IT WILL OFFER GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR BULLS. AS LONG AS NIFTY DOES NOT SLIP BELOW 4666 THERE SHOULD BE NO FEAR OF BIGGER FALLS & EVEN IF THERE IS FURTHER FALL, THEN 13 HOUR EMA AROUND 4646 SHOULD BRING IN SOLID BUYING INTEREST.
finally the break out of the june highs of 4693 came but it came after another minor intraday jolt when nifty fell to 4620 levels reminding everyone of the fridays similar intraday jolt to 4588 levels. But nifty bounced back quickly, again from the critical 13 hour ema as can be seen in the chart below. Although one expected a much sharper up move after the break out of the 4693 zone, but since the break out came around 3 pm it was more of short covering than buying. Perhaps the buying will come after another intraday correction to the breakout point of 4693 or slightly below it towards 4680 or 4666 levels.
If one has a look at the chart below one will notice that nifty not only was having a major resistance between 4650 to 4690 levels, it was also confined within a big rectangular pattern for the last 10 days. So if the things work fine , then nifty will again try to come back to the break out point or slightly below it to again break out of the rectangle with vigor & vitality to cover the height of the rectangle of about 200 points to move up above 4800 levels.
Although the so called fibonacci level of 4788 which is the 61.8% retracement level from last bull market highs of 6357 to the last bear market lows of 2252, will offer some resistance and pull down nifty to induce a feeling that we are still in the bear market, yet one will find to his great surprise that the 61.8% level at 4788 will be surpassed in lightening speed after a few days of pause & after giving some respect to this level around 4788. In bull markets the fibonacci retracement levels do not play a major roll except a pause as had happened to the fibonacci levels of 50% at 4303 and 38.2% levels at 3820. However traders must keep in mind this area around 4788 to take a pause.
For intraday trading on tuesday, traders who have bought at higher levels towards end on monday may be given a jolt when nifty will be brought down below 4693 levels towards 4666 to liquidate weaker hands. Overnight weak world markets & as usual very low volume sgx nifty will play their depressing role towards it. However bold traders who trust the present bull market and buy further on declines will be suitably rewarded
FOR TRADING ON TUESDAY, THE LOW BREAK OUT VOLUME ON MONDAY MAY BE A DAMPENER OTHERWISE MARKETS SHOULD UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES MOVE UP TO 4747 INITIALLY AND IF SUSTAINS ABOVE 4750 THEN IT CAN GO UP TILL 4788 WHERE SOME PROFIT BOOKING MAY BE EXPECTED. BUT SUPPOSE NIFTY FALLS INITIALLY TO SUB 4700 LEVELS TOWARDS 4680, IT WILL OFFER GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR BULLS. AS LONG AS NIFTY DOES NOT SLIP BELOW 4666 THERE SHOULD BE NO FEAR OF BIGGER FALLS & EVEN IF THERE IS FURTHER FALL, THEN 13 HOUR EMA AROUND 4646 SHOULD BRING IN SOLID BUYING INTEREST.
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morning update at 8 am 04 aug 09
the historical bullish first day of august as well as first monday of august saw entire world markets under bullish momentum with dow rising by 114 points and more importantly s&p500 crossing and closing above 1000 mark. Remember, there are many more days of up moves in store for dow in coming days. European markets closed up by 1.5% to 2% with uk ftse closing up by 1.6%. Asian markets have opened strongly and are likely to enjoy the on going bull run and are likely to shoot up further.
For indian markets expect a strong +ve opening, most likely around or above the initial resistance of 4747 to 4750 nifty levels. Although there will be bouts of intraday profit booking, intraday traders must use these intraday corrections towards 4700 or 4670 levels to buy for good gains. If everything moves as they are now for next 2 to 3 days, then expect nifty most likely to test 4900 levels by end of the week.
Since nifty has already moved up for 3 days in a row, there is a possibility of a day or two of pause. But, a white candle on thursday, followed by a perfect doji star on friday that was followed by another strong white candle generally shows continuation of the on going momentum. Secondly 2 dojis on 27th & 28th july with their top around 4600 has been decisively breached that should take nifty higher by at least an amount equal to distance of about 220 points which is the distance from the highs of these two dojis from the previous swing low of 4380 on 22 july. So, every intraday correction may be bought into for target of at least 4818, till such time a cooked up story is planted to bring down the markets to enable big players to re enter after booking profit at the higher levels
the historical bullish first day of august as well as first monday of august saw entire world markets under bullish momentum with dow rising by 114 points and more importantly s&p500 crossing and closing above 1000 mark. Remember, there are many more days of up moves in store for dow in coming days. European markets closed up by 1.5% to 2% with uk ftse closing up by 1.6%. Asian markets have opened strongly and are likely to enjoy the on going bull run and are likely to shoot up further.
For indian markets expect a strong +ve opening, most likely around or above the initial resistance of 4747 to 4750 nifty levels. Although there will be bouts of intraday profit booking, intraday traders must use these intraday corrections towards 4700 or 4670 levels to buy for good gains. If everything moves as they are now for next 2 to 3 days, then expect nifty most likely to test 4900 levels by end of the week.
Since nifty has already moved up for 3 days in a row, there is a possibility of a day or two of pause. But, a white candle on thursday, followed by a perfect doji star on friday that was followed by another strong white candle generally shows continuation of the on going momentum. Secondly 2 dojis on 27th & 28th july with their top around 4600 has been decisively breached that should take nifty higher by at least an amount equal to distance of about 220 points which is the distance from the highs of these two dojis from the previous swing low of 4380 on 22 july. So, every intraday correction may be bought into for target of at least 4818, till such time a cooked up story is planted to bring down the markets to enable big players to re enter after booking profit at the higher levels
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