Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[pranayk]

markets for 22 sept 09

the new week opens at the back drop of a likely flat to a weak dow followed by weak asian markets which may see a negative opening in indian markets on tuesday morning. During the last 3 trading days of closing since 16th of sept nifty has moved up by 19 points only from wednesdays closing of 4958 to fridays closing of 4976. So till expiry one should not expect any big up move & the down side also seems to have been sealed around 4919 levels.

For intraday trading on tuesday, a cross over of 4988 can take nifty higher to cross last weeks highs of 5002 and a fall below 4960 can bring down nifty to retest fridays lows of 4930 levels. A fall below 4930 can bring down nifty to gap support around 4919 levels where buying interest may re emerge. On initial fall of nifty towards 4930 levels, traders may buy october 5000 calls and as nifty shows intraday rise after the fall, traders may write (short) september 5000 calls and hold both october bought call and september shorted call till expiry to pocket the entire margin on september 5000 call. Future traders must quit september futures and shift to october series.

A dow induced fall on tuesday night may impact asian opening on tuesday that may partially impact the opening of indian markets. However indian markets being under very strong technical influence may recover faster than other asian markets. In case there are no negative impact of asian markets, then one can see nifty rising to test and cross last weeks highs of 5002 to move towards 5011 or 5025 to 5035 levels in quick succession. So, any externally induced fall in indian markets must be fully taken advantage of by buying at lower levels to see good gains by end of the day. As long as nifty maintains above 4919, possibility of making new yearly highs above 5000 levels remain quite high. A decisive cross over of 4989 may see a sharp up move in nifty to shoot past 5025 to 5035 levels due to massive short covering.

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 22 sept 09

as expected dow was down by 41 points. European markets had closed between .5% to 1% with uk ftse closing down by .7%. Brazil continued with its upward march with a .4% rise. With some asian markets closed since monday, remaining asian markets have opened strong & baring chinese markets, rest may close flat to +ve for the day having no negative impact on indian opening.

For indian markets, expect a volatile day as most of the position traders who have not yet rolled over, may consider rolling over from september series to october series today. The range may be confined to 5010 on the higher side and 4930 on the lower side.

 

[pranayk]

Markets for 23 sept 09

the new week opened with a buoyant note, and from the start only the markets took off and never looked back. The way markets are shaping up it seems a blast off up move is waiting for the markets as part of the missile like 3rd sub wave of 3rd up wave. A meaningful correction before 5500 looks highly unlikely and any intraday fall is courageously bought by every investor and trader to ride the bull run. In the weekly chart above a clear long term reverse head and solder formation has been formed that will surely take nifty past previous highs of 6357 to even cross 6600 or 6700 may be by budget 2010. That is the reason even a minor correction is bought into and chances of markets falling much, before the completion of the 3rd sub wave of 3rd wave till 5500 looks to be highly remote.

For intraday trading on wednesday, if nse index does not fall below 4996, then there is every possibility of seeing 5100+ levels for this sept expiry. However a fall below 4996 can activate the neck line of an intraday double head formation with highs around tuesdays highs of 5035 and neck line around 5495 to bring down nifty towards pivot around 4960 or even down to 4950 levels from where again solid buying may emerge. A fall below 5005 will give the first indication that nifty is being taken by operators for a bigger slide past 4995. On the higher side the cross over of 5022 may see a sharp up move to take nifty again towards tuesdays high of 5036 a cross over and sustaining above 5036 may see a rocket type up move towards 5066 or higher levels.

With dollar falling against european & other major currencies, commodity stocks are likely to pick up fast to give a boost to indices. So on every fall or even on a pause, buy stocks of major metal sectors and oil & gas exploration sectors for good gains. Buy and accumulate cairn for good gains in the near term.

 

[findvikas]

CAUTION: THERE IS NO ROAD AHEAD :annoyed:

As one of my friend pointed me and I learned today about rising wedge pattern it seem we have broken it on the downside today on the closing and there could be a 8-10% fall from current levels... grrrrrrrr!!!!!

What's your take? waiting for Pranay's analysis. US FED had given good news which sent the US stocks to highest levels once again, but then sudden profit booking took US down to close 1% in RED... exactly same pattern like we seen in India today. After today's closure US also seem to have breaking rising wedge on the downside... if indeed this is a broken rising wedge then this reminds me of Robert Prechter's (Founder Elliot Wave International) interview

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsLnch6IU_0

 

[cmak]

Hi Vikas...

You are right... Nifty is going downwards but I feel the watchout place is 4910 and 4898. If this holds then expect bounce back. If did not held then your 10% confirmed...

CMAK

 

[vaibhavjain]

You are spot on.
Nifty touched 4904, and bounced off from there.
This is a real good thread, where wonderful people like pranayk, findvikas, and now cmak openly share views.
It is very helpful for others, including myself.

Now that Nifty has closed high, there is a very real possibility of gap up opening tomorrow, and a highly bullish day tomorrow. This is my view.

Looking to hear views from other more experienced traders.

Cheers!!!
Vaibhav

 

[cmak]

Well... Well... Nifty sure did bounce back.
But as I see it is not out of the woods yet. Since, it is the last day for September contracts market had lot of short coverings. As Vikas has mentioned earlier market is in downward road.

Since Pranay has not posted his views I am trying my best to analyse market.

For upward journey continuation nifty must cross and close above 5003 and big hurdle is around 5021. Break below 4970 will again spoil the mood.

For tomorrow, if nifty breaks 4970 it may come down upto 4935 and/or 4922. Finally 4899still holds and is a good support to watch out for.

Have a nice trading day...

CMAK

 

[sahu_v]

Hi Pranay,

Now a days no analysis, why suddenly you have stopped posting your analysis. We are really missing your analysis

 

[lazytrader]

CAUTION: THERE IS NO ROAD AHEAD :annoyed:

As one of my friend pointed me and I learned today about rising wedge pattern it seem we have broken it on the downside today on the closing and there could be a 8-10% fall from current levels... grrrrrrrr!!!!!

What's your take? waiting for Pranay's analysis. US FED had given good news which sent the US stocks to highest levels once again, but then sudden profit booking took US down to close 1% in RED... exactly same pattern like we seen in India today. After today's closure US also seem to have breaking rising wedge on the downside... if indeed this is a broken rising wedge then this reminds me of Robert Prechter's (Founder Elliot Wave International) interview

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsLnch6IU_0

US reaction was on home sales data. no sudden profit booking. We will move in tandem with global markets. We need to see where the US indices decide to retrace from. Many are talking about a double dip in US so if it makes large down moves then people beginning to book profit will make it dip again to oct/march lows even if it wasn't going to.

 

[findvikas]

First off, my apologies to Pranay for writing on his thread. If you feel or anyone does that I should not write here on this thread... I do not want to make this thread like another Nishikant's thread... so please tell me NO and I will stop

As I can see Pranay might be busy with his personal life otherwise he been so regular, I am hoping that he comes back with a bang and give us good analysis.

I am trying to share what I have learned and ask you all to also learn rather than just watching the charts & numbers. Try to understand WHY market follow the charts.. why Support/Resistance are so important.

For tomorrow's analysis or for October series... I have BIG fear now in my mind. Today, those who all went long was a BULL TRAP.

See the chart, making clear cut Rising Wedge pattern and broken it as well, look at the declining volume but increasing NIFTY

Market Analysis: @ Morning 8:20AM IST
US Closed down 1% once again , Asia is following the trend Shanghai -0.8%, Nikkei -3%, Hang Seng -0.9%, Taiwan opened gap down but managed to come back to +0.37%, Australia -0.5%
So there is no hope for India to open gap up, but every reason to go gap down. With Reliance not supporting the market move and having 13.5% impact on NIFTY we cannot cross 5020 once again without its support.


Chart Analysis:
A clear cut rising wedge pattern, with Decreasing Volume and Increasing Price.. If we had closed above 5010 then there were some hope of a crash to delay another couple of days... but now crash is very much visible from the charts. We cannot take today's action in account for any sign of upmove, because it was expiry day and lots of short coverings came in to push Index high. There were some operator's action to push Nifty to 5000 mark for just 1 seconds and then trade near it for last 30minutes to manipulate the settlement price.

Now to recover from this wedge, Nifty MUST close above 5020 to increase the width of this wedge and give some space for it to breath.


Intraday Nifty Targets:
It will be gap down below 4995.. may be around 4960 which is the Pivot

Nifty Futures Levels
Sell at 4990, average it till 5005 and SL at 5010, go long above 5020 if it sustain
Buy at 4920, average it till 4900 and SL at 4890, go short at 4890 if it sustain