My System - My trades.

[varunkochhar]

It is so easy to trade positional off this information. (Armchair trading). To enter longs and to add when PDC is surpassed. To remain in the position till we are above PDC. To short when we close below PDC and to remain in that position till we maintain this status. we get a new PDC everyday so that we can trail our position.

 

[varunkochhar]

Coming back to the discussion about the difference between 20 points and 80 or 100 points is this. Nowhere in my method have i advocated increasing risks. The system delivered these profits in 1 lot only. I specifically did not talk about my adds. With adds the profits were mindblowing. Just realise the 80 or 100 points profits came from the same signal. The key was just beleiving in your system and let it take control of your trades. Total surrender. The nay sayers seem to be missing this very crucial and vital point. That is why i take position in multiples of 2 (half of which i sell just to cover my risk) so that i can follow my system to the maximum. I have told about this approach many times on this thread. The 80 or 100 points that came of a single position were not of my own choosing, the system and the markets gave them to me.

 

[varunkochhar]

In fact my bias of sticking to 20 points profits only in crude cost me a good 70-80 points in my last short trade.

 

[varunkochhar]

Now let us analyse the failure of OBV signals at times and what we can do at such times. For that you have to understand how the ribbon system functions. Say for example we get a short as per the 60period OBV ribbon (Now it should be a very powerfull and almost failproof signal) and still we find that it fails. Sometimes we have a sudden surge in volumes say a sell and the red ribbon gets triggered. But immediately if we observe thru OBV action, we realise that the same was triggered just to shake off the weak hands. Meaning what appeared as a red candle was actually bought into. Now the ribbon colour would only change to blue when we go past the highest levels of the last 60 candles though this was just a fake out. So we need to mark the level of OBV on our charts at which point the signal changed from blue to red and use this as a level to assess whether this signal was true or just a fake out. Meaning was there any follow up selling after this or not. If we were to take out the nearest price pivot high made just before this signal then probably one would not get favourable results in this signal. I hope you understand what i wanted to tell you.

 

[varunkochhar]

So using all this information how would one play the markets in a rational manner on tuesday. Well to start with take the cues from yesterday's closing OBV levels. Look for buying opportunities till we are above these levels no shorting positionally. Once we breach these levels of 8th march closing levels then only think about shorting.

 

[XRAY27]

Another observation i would like to share with you. But only on this condition that you will take it as a guideline not a RULE. With Happy ji's latest AFL to mark the OBV PDC (i hope i got it right Xray ji) you can consider the 2day back obv PDC's as threshhold levels to take contra trades too or to book profits (if you do not want to take contra trades) intraday. So say you are long and the OBV levels hit the 2day back opening levels of OBV, chances are bright that it may act as a resistance if it is above today's pdc levels and act as support if it is below today's pdc levels. The reasoning is simple we need extra volumes (either ways) to take the price to the next level to sustain or change the trend whatever the case may be. Does that sound confusing.

Yes !!! perfect varun ji OBV ofPDC

So using all this information how would one play the markets in a rational manner on tuesday. Well to start with take the cues from yesterday's closing OBV levels. Look for buying opportunities till we are above these levels no shorting positionally. Once we breach these levels of 8th march closing levels then only think about shorting.

Yes varun ji!!! one should watch with added points !!!

 

[VJAY]

Ok then. Gyan for today. Take the signal as per the ribbon system in totality. No half measures. So say that you start with a 100shares on getting the buy signal as per the ribbon system and your SL is 2 rupees. Sell 50 shares (half your position) when you are in profits of 2 rupees(to cover your risk), but do not (i repeat) do not bring your stop to breakeven (as most of us do). Instead only follow SL thrown by the system. From here on take adds thrown by the system to add to your profitability but do not tinker with the SL randomly.

When you get the add your sl would automatically come up.

Another observation i would like to share with you. But only on this condition that you will take it as a guideline not a RULE. With Happy ji's latest AFL to mark the OBV PDC (i hope i got it right Xray ji) you can consider the 2day back obv PDC's as threshhold levels to take contra trades too or to book profits (if you do not want to take contra trades) intraday. So say you are long and the OBV levels hit the 2day back opening levels of OBV, chances are bright that it may act as a resistance if it is above today's pdc levels and act as support if it is below today's pdc levels. The reasoning is simple we need extra volumes (either ways) to take the price to the next level to sustain or change the trend whatever the case may be. Does that sound confusing.

Coming back to the discussion about the difference between 20 points and 80 or 100 points is this. Nowhere in my method have i advocated increasing risks. The system delivered these profits in 1 lot only. I specifically did not talk about my adds. With adds the profits were mindblowing. Just realise the 80 or 100 points profits came from the same signal. The key was just beleiving in your system and let it take control of your trades. Total surrender. The nay sayers seem to be missing this very crucial and vital point. That is why i take position in multiples of 2 (half of which i sell just to cover my risk) so that i can follow my system to the maximum. I have told about this approach many times on this thread. The 80 or 100 points that came of a single position were not of my own choosing, the system and the markets gave them to me.

Now let us analyse the failure of OBV signals at times and what we can do at such times. For that you have to understand how the ribbon system functions. Say for example we get a short as per the 60period OBV ribbon (Now it should be a very powerfull and almost failproof signal) and still we find that it fails. Sometimes we have a sudden surge in volumes say a sell and the red ribbon gets triggered. But immediately if we observe thru OBV action, we realise that the same was triggered just to shake off the weak hands. Meaning what appeared as a red candle was actually bought into. Now the ribbon colour would only change to blue when we go past the highest levels of the last 60 candles though this was just a fake out. So we need to mark the level of OBV on our charts at which point the signal changed from blue to red and use this as a level to assess whether this signal was true or just a fake out. Meaning was there any follow up selling after this or not. If we were to take out the nearest price pivot high made just before this signal then probably one would not get favourable results in this signal. I hope you understand what i wanted to tell you.

So using all this information how would one play the markets in a rational manner on tuesday. Well to start with take the cues from yesterday's closing OBV levels. Look for buying opportunities till we are above these levels no shorting positionally. Once we breach these levels of 8th march closing levels then only think about shorting.

:thumb::thumb::thumb: I think these points are made clear to upgrade from basic trader to adavanced trader of this method...

 

[varunkochhar]

The market takes its long term decisions only after big events. Like remember i had said that till we do not go below OBV levels of 31st January (1 day before the budget) we would not be going down. At that time that became the new zero for positional. Then after we had a big sell off 2 weeks back from around 21000 levels i had said that probably the high was already in place. We have respected those levels since then. Now on tuesday if the market gives a thumbs up (which looks to be a given right now) friday's lowest levels would and should become the new zero for positional. So no matter whatever the so called experts say on the blue channels, the uptrend would be in place till we breach the new zero levels. Valuations etc. would have no relevance once we take out the lifetime highs. The markets are never known to be rational. In fact the general public who would find the absence of logic in this uptrend would be fuelling this rally by their state of denial.

 

[varunkochhar]

I for one would not at all be surprised if we go up by 15-20% in this year if we close above the previous life time highs and volumes. (so about 10500+ in Nifty and 24000+ in BN). Provided we do not breach 8th March lows in price and volumes. Very small risk and big targets. But let us stick to our ribbon system. But now i urge you all to be a little more daring and start playing positional via the options route discussed many times on this thread by using probably a 5 day OBV ribbon in daily. Even if you do not have a 5 day ribbon, just keep on updating the 5 day lowest levels of OBV and you could reap very good results by staying with the trend. I am ready. Let the markets support me. I would be adding 1 stock every week and let it run on auto.

 

[varunkochhar]

We have plenty of underperformers in the last rally. To name 1 Reliance has just recently broken out, it alone has the potential to take Nifty to astronomical heights. It has broken out of almost 10 years slumber. The impact of JIO has yet not been factored. Imagine cornering 90% of the market share in the next 5 years would make it a cash cow. And this is not even its main business.