NIFTY 50 future TRENDS

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Eagle, it is confidence, not cockiness that we are talking about. In the case of the charts I posted, it is just pictorial evidence to repudiate common fallacies.

Personally, I feel there is a need to be confident. Have you ever met a successful trader who is not confident? A good trader is like a rock. They are immovable from their methodology, yet they also respect all others approaches to the markets.

Now, I'm going to step on my buddy's toes (or is that his wing). Cockiness is like drinking. All the moderation garbage can be thrown out the window. I would not drink gasoline in moderation. I would not drink something to inebriate my mind, dull my senses, or give me headaches the next day when I wake up. The same goes for cockiness. In a venue like this where we really don't know each other, my concern is that my confidence comes off as being smug or cocky. Cockiness would inebriate my mind towards my trading, dull my senses, and give my bottom line headaches.

If we want to talk moderation, then okay. I watch how much coffee (This sure is a good cup at 6:30 in the morning.) I drink, because I don't like heartburn. I watch how much ice tea I drink, because I don't like kidney and lower back problems. I watch how much chamomile tea I drink before bedtime, because I don't like to get up at 2:00 in the morning to go to the bathroom.
I watch my confidence, even though I'm heavily endowed by it, because I don't want it to get in the way of being able to gather new ideas, or have it come off as smug.


Well done, Paul. Such logical thinking has always been expected of you. The funny paradox is, in this high-probability game of trading that we are in on daily basis, it is very easy to get cocky whenever a few variables repeatedly converge so as to give hint of its future movement.
'Cockiness' in moderation, like a drink or two, is acceptable. Afterall, a degree of confidence is always needed to execute the trade flawlessly as per one's methodology. But runaway-cockiness is a sure recipe for one's ledger destruction.

But how would one differentiate?
Honestly, I don't know. I mean, I know one could always bore others with lectures on Money management, experience, and all that...quoting this or that market wizard on top - though, knowing fully well that 'one size fits all' is a dangerous fallacy.:)

For me personally, well, the answer lies somehow in that century-old, bed-time prayer: God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things that I can, and the wisdom to know the difference. Amen.
 

EagleOne

Well-Known Member
There is no International Standard Unit, like meter or gram, to measure Confidence, Paul. It is subjective, if you must know. One's level of confidence can easily be taken as cockiness by the others. As long as the going remains good, cockiness is confidence. And it is cool. John McEnroe, for example. Closer home, SG...I can fill pages giving examples.

Anyway, you don't have to take it personally. :) I didn't write those words keeping you in mind. It was my general observation, which I shared on this public forum using your post.

Oh, I will pass commenting on you using anology of drinking gasoline with alcohol consumption (and your personal disdain for alcocholic drinks). Sometime or the other, we all talk shite - none of us is infallible, you know! :p;)
 

Taurus1

Well-Known Member
There is a lot of comparison between today's market and back in 2009, which is very uneven.
The current market has been pushed up by a few outperformers that (somehow??? :confused: :eek: :D) managed to get high index weightage.

Except for those outperformers, there are a lot of stocks that are near 2500 levels, which says that the market structure has changed and earlier yardsticks may not be applicable now. :D

Personally, I would not think of touching the current market with the $hitty end of a bargepole until all the scams are settled. :! :D
 

sudoku1

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In a shocking move, one which is sure to reverberate around the Developing and certainly Developed World, the Brazilian Central Bank just announced that it wascutting its Selic (overnightlending) rate from 12.5% to 12.0%, citing substantial economic deterioration something that not one of the 62 analysts covering Brazil had anticipated. It seems that following overa year of small arms fire FX intervention sniping, Brazil has finally reevaluated its growth prospects, and instead of dealing with the inflow of capital on a piecemeal basis by buying dollars daily a move which has not worked at all, has decided to cut off flows at the stem. This is most likely the first of many rate cuts by Brazil which is obviously anticipating a major growth contraction in China, and as a result we expect the the other BRICs will very soon reevaluate their stance vis-a-vis being the remaining target of global capital flows. Ironically, up until now it was mostly the developed(read bankrupt) world that was devaluing its currencies Well, make way for the new kids on the block because this is about to get interesting.
 

EagleOne

Well-Known Member
Thanks eagle, pav and sudoko. Now it's confirmed we have double-digit inflation back. And let us now see economics of the world -

Since 1948 whenever USA 4th quarter GDP growth goes below 2 next year is sure recession. Its hard to argue against an indicator with such a long history of accuracy. 2nd quarter data came to be 1.3 in compare to 1.8 of 1st quarter. If things in the US don't change in next 2 quarters get ready for another recession in 6 months. http://www.etoro.net/forex-news/us-...the-u-s-second-quarter-gdp-release-33195.html

Europe is a dead story for next few years. If someone in large Hindu Undivided Family becomes insolvent and Karta of family helps him once things in family becomes easy. But what if one by one all family members keeps on defaulting? Spain, Italy, Pourtgal, Greece.. France will soon give up as did the UK.

ECB is buying debts and bonds as if there is no tomorrow. it has become hugely overleveraged. And adding to misery are big banks of UK and France that have huge exposure in sovereign debts.

Bailouts and austerity measures are adding fuel to fire. On 1 hand you help someone to come out from insolvency and on other hand citizen of insolvent nation are levied high burden of taxes!

Polland, Germans, UK, Netherlands all are trying to get out of Euro-trap. Reason, apart from France, banks of these countries have a total of 2 trillion dollars of exposure to Greek, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt. They already are burried under debt and don't want to become France and save debt-burden nation.

Coming back yo the US, U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 44 which is just near to last time market tanked. The housing numbers are going south and sells house price fell by 6-7%. This is the biggest decline since 2009. But even with lower prices very few people are buying.

Even Ben Bernanke agrees that growth is slow and there is no sign of things getting better in next 2 years. Twice we have seen US budget drama. It'll again come up this month and last minute action will save them. For how long this will go?

Finally, just like India, there is no buyer of equity inthe world. Brokers are closing business worldwide. Turnover has dried up, liquidity is only with tax free havens and inflation is mounting. China, Japan have been left and they too have serious problem to sort out. But bigger danger are The USA and Eurozone as of now.

By the way, I have 2 lots of CE of 5200 sep series, about lacs of rupees in mutual funds still invested. I sold 4 lots of 5200 on tuesday after consulting 4xpips bro and redeemed some mutual fund units. I'm still "long" on market. I go by trend and trend now is bullish. Although in long term I do not have any hope. :)

I was reading in the Economist recently that on average USA was borrowing 3+ billion dollars a day from the world to keep having the standard of living it is so used to. It owes China 1.3 trillion, more than our GDP. And what is the collateral? US treasurary Bonds! And the writer of the article feared, what if China decides to cash those bonds?

I laughed so hard at this absurd question!
Damn! China's 80% GDP comes from exporting to the USA and other 1 or 2 European countries- compared to our 44%. Why would the cash in? If they are mad enough to do so, what will they cash in with? Paper money, that USA has become so good at printing? Which, by the way, is the very core of world economic problems - the debt-induced-money-printing central banking system!

As they a say in my mother tongue: Irony of getting screwed by a blind is to drive him back to his home afterwards!

Don't worry. I also wrote a couple Nifty puts, they were in profit at the close of market. I missed squaring them off at the end. Let's see how they fare tomorrow.

Mutual funds are run by highly-paid idiots all over the world, it is now proven beyond any reasonable doubt. To me the MF stands for the other, more honest though derogatory, two words!.:D

Take care
 

vinst

Well-Known Member
Hi,
let me attempt to re-direct the arguments.
Our arena of analysis extends to the whole world. but we are declaring only 2-3 lots of trading instruments.
I am at even lower scale, so i am wondering, if i ever some to 10 lots, what would i have to analyze? At least the situation on moon :mad:.
 

Taurus1

Well-Known Member
that USA has become so good at printing? Which, by the way, is the very core of world economic problems - the debt-induced-money-printing central banking system!
The US govt removed the Gold standard first. :rofl: :D
Mutual funds are run by highly-paid idiots all over the world, it is now proven beyond any reasonable doubt. To me the MF stands for the other, more honest though derogatory, two words!.:D
:rofl:
I never knew that MF stood for mutual funds :confused: :p :D
 

Taurus1

Well-Known Member
Mutual funds are run by highly-paid idiots all over the world, it is now proven beyond any reasonable doubt. To me the MF stands for the other, more honest though derogatory, two words!.:D
I have a couple of friends working in the MF:)D) industry. Average salary is 10-15L pm, irrespective of performance. :rofl:
In all fairness to them, their hands are tied since they cannot take short positions. However they are useless at timing the market and rely on other factors to determine their positions.
Until the MF:)D) industry decides to make performance accountability a must, they will continue to be MFs. :D
 
Don't worry about that, Eagle. We understand each other.
You made the comment about alcohol in addressing one of my comments, so I replied. And yes, I don't look at it any differently--drinking alcohol or drinking gasoline. Regardless, I'm sure we do not hold each other in disdain for our views. LOL, something tells me we won't be attending the same New Year's party.

There is no International Standard Unit, like meter or gram, to measure Confidence, Paul. It is subjective, if you must know. One's level of confidence can easily be taken as cockiness by the others. As long as the going remains good, cockiness is confidence. And it is cool. John McEnroe, for example. Closer home, SG...I can fill pages giving examples.

Anyway, you don't have to take it personally. :) I didn't write those words keeping you in mind. It was my general observation, which I shared on this public forum using your post.

Oh, I will pass commenting on you using anology of drinking gasoline with alcohol consumption (and your personal disdain for alcocholic drinks). Sometime or the other, we all talk shite - none of us is infallible, you know! :p;)
 
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