NIFTY 50 future TRENDS

[4xpipcounter]

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This post is not designed to cast negatively on anyone, but I have never been one to subscribe to talking points.

I'm posting these charts to show a point, and keeping in mind we are traders and that is the common thread that binds all of us. In considering charts and forecasting the markets the way we do, it is trading opportunities we are seeking and not stereotypes or talking points.

The major highlighted area is from July 4, 2010 to April 24 2011. The latter date was when the DJIA began its decline, and the former date is when it began its incline. Let's say we want to trail the DJIA in trading Nifty (I almost wish trading was that easy, but then it would take away the fun of studying charts.). DJIA during that time went up 3,173 points. Nifty went up only 478 points. That is hardly a similarity to trade by.
The one candle highlighted by the oval was the week of July 31,2011, when Nifty was plundered 484 points. The one-week move alone was greater than the 9 1/2-month upmove that we are comparing to DJIA, when it increased 3,173 points.

Not good enough? Well, okay then, let's look at the dates November 7, 2010 to April 24,2011. Nifty, in those 5 1/2 months dropped 625 points, and in the same exact period of time DJIA rose 1,689 points.

Moral of the story-- Don't jump on the back of one market just because another market is doing something else.

 

[rahul701]

Rahul, whoever you are, with this post you are my buddy!

(Thanks! I still can't stop laughing! :rofl

After ur comment i read some of ur posts and found out that u were just as str8 fwd as m i. So lets hope we will have gr8 going ahead

 

[2021]

Dec 2011 NF target = 4000 and
till March,April 2012 NF target = 3500 -3100

Lot of unnecessary comments being said about this and sudden 800 points on sensex has made everyone so bullish that they have all of a sudden turned eyes closed on serious issue and for them now nifty is at 6000, 7500, 13000, 25000 and what not by March (that is still 5 months from now). Let people poke nose and make fun. Let people think "Indian Story" is so wonderull that our markets will multifold from here although same people were of view that market is heading to 4500 not in 5 months but by end of Sep series!!

Serious issues about "Indian Story" - high insterest of 125 bips in past 2 quarters haven't come in margins of banks and industries that takes short term as well as long term funding from banks. Those big guns sold are smart enough disposing off banks and infra all of a sudden.

India's GDP is showing a fall QoQ. And Govt Expect it'll be 8.2 YoY. And worst quarter is now begun which come what may will be near to 7 or low. There is no new crop to save on agri data, service industries are worst hit in rainy season so who'll save govt? CG and Infra is worst hit already and will continue to grow downwards.

RBI will keep rising interest rate and inflation will keep going up. Don't get surprised if next inflation data touches double-figure and keep raising now as it was June last week price were hiked and the new monthly data will come for july month! And RBI is spineless if govt don't do serious stuff with regards to supply side. Govt argues what if next year rain doesn't comes. 1st save nation from this year. If you open suply most world's economy will drop agri price. Argentina, Pakistan and Brazil don't hike price sugar price on local economy but when Sharad Pawar speaks something.

Fiscal deficit of 4.6 is in no way achievable now. It was if govt had divested ONGC, SAIL, BPCL and IOC and used that money on time. We didn't even had 1 divestment so far and all plans for making quick money and throwing to curb fiscal losses have been thrashed.

Opening FDI in Retail or Banks won't give anything to govt but will just give a 100 points rally to market. There was a time when people used to "buy" from shopping malls. Now only groccery shops in malls runs that too high-middle class go and figure is going down as EMIs are increasing. When I have a shop next door for pulses, 3 more on next street, dozens in area's local market why I'll drive and waste 100 rs petrol to buy same pulses from walmart? Walmart is fail story just like fail story of "Indian growth story" And new bank's license money goes to RBI and not govt.

Banks raised short term deposit rates and now banks pay around 9.5 for year to 2. And deposit have increased 76% from past year. Rate hike is going since Feb. What'll happen to those who start taking money out instead of extending fixed deposit? More liquidty crunch. And this is more dangerous than supply side inflation.

I can keep posting for what people call "Indian Growth Story" which is nothing but a myth. I agree India is growing at 6-7-8% GDP whereas the best economy of the world grow at 2% but they don't have disperity among citizen and poverty and unemplyment. If I have a daughter who is beautiful, well mannered, cultured, IAS Officer and what not I won't go to everyone and keep telling my girl is so and so I need a good groom for her. I must be hiding something otherwise if my daughter is so good she'll get proposals on own. Same way a few years ago FIIs jumped in and invested with closed eye as they saw good things only. Now everytime Finance Misiter or Montek Singh or RBI governner or some Tulsyan or Oswal or Guppy comes on TV they claim to have Indian Growth blah blah.. Why to sing all the if you have a story? Enoguh buyers will come to buy your words. But why does market came from 6200 to 5000? I need rocket science to get answer. So be realistic and don't get carried away with some small corrections or rallies or falls. And it's not necessary that we'll only go up from here and won't fall and it's not also necessary that we may touch 3500. So instead of poking fun of someone have either fundamental or technical logic for your reason of making fun.

 

[EagleOne]

This post is not designed to cast negatively on anyone, but I have never been one to subscribe to talking points.

I'm posting these charts to show a point, and keeping in mind we are traders and that is the common thread that binds all of us. In considering charts and forecasting the markets the way we do, it is trading opportunities we are seeking and not stereotypes or talking points.

The major highlighted area is from July 4, 2010 to April 24 2011. The latter date was when the DJIA began its decline, and the former date is when it began its incline. Let's say we want to trail the DJIA in trading Nifty (I almost wish trading was that easy, but then it would take away the fun of studying charts.). DJIA during that time went up 3,173 points. Nifty went up only 478 points. That is hardly a similarity to trade by.
The one candle highlighted by the oval was the week of July 31,2011, when Nifty was plundered 484 points. The one-week move alone was greater than the 9 1/2-month upmove that we are comparing to DJIA, when it increased 3,173 points.

Not good enough? Well, okay then, let's look at the dates November 7, 2010 to April 24,2011. Nifty, in those 5 1/2 months dropped 625 points, and in the same exact period of time DJIA rose 1,689 points.

Moral of the story-- Don't jump on the back of one market just because another market is doing something else.

Well done, Paul. Such logical thinking has always been expected of you. The funny paradox is, in this high-probability game of trading that we are in on daily basis, it is very easy to get cocky whenever a few variables repeatedly converge so as to give hint of its future movement.
'Cockiness' in moderation, like a drink or two, is acceptable. Afterall, a degree of confidence is always needed to execute the trade flawlessly as per one's methodology. But runaway-cockiness is a sure recipe for one's ledger destruction.

But how would one differentiate?
Honestly, I don't know. I mean, I know one could always bore others with lectures on Money management, experience, and all that...quoting this or that market wizard on top - though, knowing fully well that 'one size fits all' is a dangerous fallacy.

For me personally, well, the answer lies somehow in that century-old, bed-time prayer: God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things that I can, and the wisdom to know the difference. Amen.

 

[EagleOne]

After ur comment i read some of ur posts and found out that u were just as str8 fwd as m i. So lets hope we will have gr8 going ahead

This evening I will drink to that Hope!

Take care.

P.S. I still laughed in the morning when I read the funny combination of the words, 'Head' and 'Natmastak'

 

[EagleOne]

...
I can keep posting for what people call "Indian Growth Story" which is nothing but a myth. I agree India is growing at 6-7-8% GDP whereas the best economy of the world grow at 2% but they don't have disperity among citizen and poverty and unemplyment. If I have a daughter who is beautiful, well mannered, cultured, IAS Officer and what not I won't go to everyone and keep telling my girl is so and so I need a good groom for her. I must be hiding something otherwise if my daughter is so good she'll get proposals on own. Same way a few years ago FIIs jumped in and invested with closed eye as they saw good things only. Now everytime Finance Misiter or Montek Singh or RBI governner or some Tulsyan or Oswal or Guppy comes on TV they claim to have Indian Growth blah blah.. Why to sing all the if you have a story? Enoguh buyers will come to buy your words. But why does market came from 6200 to 5000? I need rocket science to get answer. So be realistic and don't get carried away with some small corrections or rallies or falls. And it's not necessary that we'll only go up from here and won't fall and it's not also necessary that we may touch 3500. So instead of poking fun of someone have either fundamental or technical logic for your reason of making fun.

Just brilliant. Thank you, 2021, for sharing such crystal-clear thoughts! :thumb:

 

[pav]

Dec 2011 NF target = 4000 and
till March,April 2012 NF target = 3500 -3100

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

Mar 2013 tgt 2000

Mar 2014 tgt 500

Mar 2015:rofl: Nifty -2000 on every trade people would get +1500

Tukke ki bhi Hadd hai bhai

Sir Aap toh the gr8 ho, Salam to u. Mera head aapke aage natmastak hai :clapping:

By the way aap jyotshi ho kya? Or r u a relative of JP Morgan or Buffet or some Big Govt personality who knows India Story so well.

I m not saying that Nifty just cant reach those targets, but predicting them with such conviction, well u mite be having some very strong reason to do so.

Yaa phir aap one of very few Lucky TUCCKEBAAZ ho :clapping:

Well if u have ny gr8 methodology bcoz i m too

Dear PT and rahul brother,

That NF levels are not Tukka .............. wait and watch and then comment.

 

[pav]

Lot of unnecessary comments being said about this and sudden 800 points on sensex has made everyone so bullish that they have all of a sudden turned eyes closed on serious issue and for them now nifty is at 6000, 7500, 13000, 25000 and what not by March (that is still 5 months from now). Let people poke nose and make fun. Let people think "Indian Story" is so wonderull that our markets will multifold from here although same people were of view that market is heading to 4500 not in 5 months but by end of Sep series!!

Serious issues about "Indian Story" - high insterest of 125 bips in past 2 quarters haven't come in margins of banks and industries that takes short term as well as long term funding from banks. Those big guns sold are smart enough disposing off banks and infra all of a sudden.

India's GDP is showing a fall QoQ. And Govt Expect it'll be 8.2 YoY. And worst quarter is now begun which come what may will be near to 7 or low. There is no new crop to save on agri data, service industries are worst hit in rainy season so who'll save govt? CG and Infra is worst hit already and will continue to grow downwards.

RBI will keep rising interest rate and inflation will keep going up. Don't get surprised if next inflation data touches double-figure and keep raising now as it was June last week price were hiked and the new monthly data will come for july month! And RBI is spineless if govt don't do serious stuff with regards to supply side. Govt argues what if next year rain doesn't comes. 1st save nation from this year. If you open suply most world's economy will drop agri price. Argentina, Pakistan and Brazil don't hike price sugar price on local economy but when Sharad Pawar speaks something.

Fiscal deficit of 4.6 is in no way achievable now. It was if govt had divested ONGC, SAIL, BPCL and IOC and used that money on time. We didn't even had 1 divestment so far and all plans for making quick money and throwing to curb fiscal losses have been thrashed.

Opening FDI in Retail or Banks won't give anything to govt but will just give a 100 points rally to market. There was a time when people used to "buy" from shopping malls. Now only groccery shops in malls runs that too high-middle class go and figure is going down as EMIs are increasing. When I have a shop next door for pulses, 3 more on next street, dozens in area's local market why I'll drive and waste 100 rs petrol to buy same pulses from walmart? Walmart is fail story just like fail story of "Indian growth story" And new bank's license money goes to RBI and not govt.

Banks raised short term deposit rates and now banks pay around 9.5 for year to 2. And deposit have increased 76% from past year. Rate hike is going since Feb. What'll happen to those who start taking money out instead of extending fixed deposit? More liquidty crunch. And this is more dangerous than supply side inflation.

I can keep posting for what people call "Indian Growth Story" which is nothing but a myth. I agree India is growing at 6-7-8% GDP whereas the best economy of the world grow at 2% but they don't have disperity among citizen and poverty and unemplyment. If I have a daughter who is beautiful, well mannered, cultured, IAS Officer and what not I won't go to everyone and keep telling my girl is so and so I need a good groom for her. I must be hiding something otherwise if my daughter is so good she'll get proposals on own. Same way a few years ago FIIs jumped in and invested with closed eye as they saw good things only. Now everytime Finance Misiter or Montek Singh or RBI governner or some Tulsyan or Oswal or Guppy comes on TV they claim to have Indian Growth blah blah.. Why to sing all the if you have a story? Enoguh buyers will come to buy your words. But why does market came from 6200 to 5000? I need rocket science to get answer. So be realistic and don't get carried away with some small corrections or rallies or falls. And it's not necessary that we'll only go up from here and won't fall and it's not also necessary that we may touch 3500. So instead of poking fun of someone have either fundamental or technical logic for your reason of making fun.

Very well said....excellent...:clapping::clapping::clapping:
Thanks 2021

Pav

 

[sudoku1]

http://m.economictimes.com/PDAET/articleshow/9820550.cms

 

[2021]

Thanks eagle, pav and sudoko. Now it's confirmed we have double-digit inflation back. And let us now see economics of the world -

Since 1948 whenever USA 4th quarter GDP growth goes below 2 next year is sure recession. It’s hard to argue against an indicator with such a long history of accuracy. 2nd quarter data came to be 1.3 in compare to 1.8 of 1st quarter. If things in the US don't change in next 2 quarters get ready for another recession in 6 months. http://www.etoro.net/forex-news/us-...the-u-s-second-quarter-gdp-release-33195.html

Europe is a dead story for next few years. If someone in large Hindu Undivided Family becomes insolvent and Karta of family helps him once things in family becomes easy. But what if one by one all family members keeps on defaulting? Spain, Italy, Pourtgal, Greece.. France will soon give up as did the UK.

ECB is buying debts and bonds as if there is no tomorrow. it has become hugely overleveraged. And adding to misery are big banks of UK and France that have huge exposure in sovereign debts.

Bailouts and austerity measures are adding fuel to fire. On 1 hand you help someone to come out from insolvency and on other hand citizen of insolvent nation are levied high burden of taxes!

Polland, Germans, UK, Netherlands all are trying to get out of Euro-trap. Reason, apart from France, banks of these countries have a total of 2 trillion dollars of exposure to Greek, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt. They already are burried under debt and don't want to become France and save debt-burden nation.

Coming back yo the US, U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 44 which is just near to last time market tanked. The housing numbers are going south and sells house price fell by 6-7%. This is the biggest decline since 2009. But even with lower prices very few people are buying.

Even Ben Bernanke agrees that growth is slow and there is no sign of things getting better in next 2 years. Twice we have seen US budget drama. It'll again come up this month and last minute action will save them. For how long this will go?

Finally, just like India, there is no buyer of equity inthe world. Brokers are closing business worldwide. Turnover has dried up, liquidity is only with tax free havens and inflation is mounting. China, Japan have been left and they too have serious problem to sort out. But bigger danger are The USA and Eurozone as of now.

By the way, I have 2 lots of CE of 5200 sep series, about lacs of rupees in mutual funds still invested. I sold 4 lots of 5200 on tuesday after consulting 4xpips bro and redeemed some mutual fund units. I'm still "long" on market. I go by trend and trend now is bullish. Although in long term I do not have any hope.