Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[vanram]

hedging longs with calls??

what is the use, that too when you are bullish?

What I feel, it is not 100% clear what market will do next week (though, I think it will be bullish). It is highly advisable to hedge your NF longs (if you are holding) with equal quantity 5400 call. I am doing the same.

Happy trading!!

 

[simple_trader]

hedging longs with calls??

what is the use, that too when you are bullish?

I meant, it was better to hedge longs by writing 5400 calls. It's a win win situation. Your down side loss is somewhat protected. Also if market goes up, we are going to make money.

Do you find anything wrong?

Happy trading!

 

[MaxX]

I meant, it was better to hedge longs by writing 5400 calls. It's a win win situation. Your down side loss is somewhat protected. Also if market goes up, we are going to make money.

Do you find anything wrong?

Happy trading!

Thats a covered call.. has the same risk profile as a naked put.. not much of a hedge.

 

[blackberry]

Respected sirs,
It could be possible that nifty could climb to 5400.China exports are up 34% in June.Fear of double dip fading.

 

[simple_trader]

Thats a covered call.. has the same risk profile as a naked put.. not much of a hedge.

it is a continuation of views. Not a covered call trade really. If anyone is carrying long for swing for last a few days, could have covered some at 5350 around. and carry some with 5400 call as hedge. Next week at appropriate time, we can exit 5400 call and hold long. This is done just to reduce risk of weekend and also market to retrace for forming weekly candle.

Hope you get my point.

Covered call is when we take future long with call written. that is not motive behind this hedge.

happy trading!

 

[SwingKing]

I hate to guess the direction of the market's. But I sense that we will form a low in May around the 4850 - 5000 band and will go on to make a new intermediate high in the month of July - August. I have been building up significant amount of shorts in my portfolio and will be surprised if market's go on to make a new high in the coming sessions. Any surprise that the market throws is always a new learning experience and hence I won't mind loosing money on it. So, let's see how it goes.

This was my broader view on the Markets which I posted in this thread (on page 2). I feel this view is playing out in a text book manner. We are very near making a new high and I think we will make it this month.

On a much broader note, I feel nothing has changed in the system. Technically we are still very weak and I will still bet for the markets to go down on the first sign of weakness. The structure of many leading as well as lagging indicators in the Index remain very very weak. Even certain leading fundamental economic indicators are suggesting for a market down move. I don't intend to argue with the markets and I do know that sometimes markets do exhibit irrational exuberance. Hence, I am vigilant and protecting my positions. Markets are still closing near the day's high hence short sellers must be careful. Weakness must be evident before shorts are entertained.

Let's see how things move forward. I think we should see reversals from 5470 levels else 5600 will be well on cards. We'll review our stand again around these levels. Till then, let us ride our longs. Price structure is still reasonably fine and we must trade what we presently see on the charts.

 

[simple_trader]

Important change to note here, NF is trading first time in discount, it means someone is shorting NF (position building is happening). It does not mean that market can not go up more.

For this week NF support seems to be 5300 and resistance around 5470. Swing remains bullish, though I am not in favor of holding longs too much. Rather in favor of concentrating on building shorts.

I still feel market will climb to 5500-5550 range sometime in this series. But we need to keep position in such way now that we can can be flexible and open to change view.

First time today's trading does look a bearish one, which i told in morning itself. But we have to see where market takes support today or tomorrow! till then intraday shorting is enjoying.

I would say 100% caution in long position even if market goes up.

Happy trading!!

 

[rajputz]

On daily basis, go long on nifty spot only if it closes above 5372. Thats the pivot high.

 

[linkon7]

@Simple_T
Discount on NF is understandable... fresh longs + short covering were outnumbered by the number of people booking profits on longs and creating fresh shorts... specially near the 5400 mark....

Sentiments will be more decisive once Infy results are out tomorrow... Infy made fresh 52 week high and good amount of (possible) good news is already factored in... Now if selling on News ( after buying on rumors ) starts...or the result is not upto expectations... then that might prove to be drop of lime that soured the milk and we can head lower...

There was hardly any take away in today's session, apart from the IIP number's reaction.... which got quickly bought...

The market breadth was positive with advances at 694 against declines of 586 on the NSE....

Global market's appear stable and big players might want to keep the euphoria of breaking 18000 on sensex alive till they can complete their distribution phase...

chart wise, i'm waiting for my RSI to confirm a divergence before i can go for defensive short... and then if 5191 is broken on EOD, i can go aggressive...

personally, i am carrying a long strangle of 5500 call and 5200 put for tomorrow... hoping for a 2% move in either direction....


@Raunak
Welcome back, buddy... lifts a weight off my chest...as i unknowingly managed to ruin a perfectly good thread...with my silly concerns...

 

[simple_trader]

personally, i am carrying a long strangle of 5500 call and 5200 put for tomorrow... hoping for a 2% move in either direction....

Not carrying anything now!! Given up swing longs today.

Once market goes above 5450+ or with appropriate reversal sign, want to go short in index. We may have a big fall after this up move is done. May pick up some August PUT for holding till August series ending. It will take turn, time is getting closer (may see 5500 before that though).

Just sharing my views!