Nifty: Daily Price Analysis
- Thread starter SwingKing
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Hey everybody...
Kindly give opinion or comment on my analogy... I wud be happy to have somebody playing devil's advocate....
NF 5,3 stoch crossed down, RSI 9,10 and 14 shoring divergence as well as turning down... NF not able to go up with the power... I am trying to evaluate the same situation or chart from other way i.e. what I wud have done if the inverse set up is formed i.e. buyside... it is something like reversing chart and looking at it... I wud probably have initiated buy position with small lot... with the same philosophy, shall I initiate short position with small lot and go aggressively after further confirmation???
~ Apurv
Kindly give opinion or comment on my analogy... I wud be happy to have somebody playing devil's advocate....
NF 5,3 stoch crossed down, RSI 9,10 and 14 shoring divergence as well as turning down... NF not able to go up with the power... I am trying to evaluate the same situation or chart from other way i.e. what I wud have done if the inverse set up is formed i.e. buyside... it is something like reversing chart and looking at it... I wud probably have initiated buy position with small lot... with the same philosophy, shall I initiate short position with small lot and go aggressively after further confirmation???
~ Apurv
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Nifty weekly chart :
Information gained from this chart:
1. Price has not broken the trend line, so assume trend to be bullish until 5265 is broken on closing basis.
2. Angle of the ema-34 is 26 degrees, so uptrend is not all that strong...
3. ADX is flat... so we are trading in a range of 5484 to 4931.
4. floor roof system says to stay long only...
5. CCI is above 100, so its long only zone...
6. difference between the current cci and the previous bar is now 42, which was 29 a bar before... so momentum is very much on the up side... wait for momentum reversal before going for aggressive shorts...
Profiling the weekly price
we can see that :
1. We have been trading between 5185 to 5343 for 4 weeks.... and then finally decide to shift the value area higher to test the 5359 to 5399 bracket...
2. Price above the 5399 mark has been rejected
3. shorting is possible if we get a closing below the 5320 mark on a closing basis... as that sets the target for Virgin POC at 5243
Information gained from this chart:
1. Price has not broken the trend line, so assume trend to be bullish until 5265 is broken on closing basis.
2. Angle of the ema-34 is 26 degrees, so uptrend is not all that strong...
3. ADX is flat... so we are trading in a range of 5484 to 4931.
4. floor roof system says to stay long only...
5. CCI is above 100, so its long only zone...
6. difference between the current cci and the previous bar is now 42, which was 29 a bar before... so momentum is very much on the up side... wait for momentum reversal before going for aggressive shorts...
Profiling the weekly price
we can see that :
1. We have been trading between 5185 to 5343 for 4 weeks.... and then finally decide to shift the value area higher to test the 5359 to 5399 bracket...
2. Price above the 5399 mark has been rejected
3. shorting is possible if we get a closing below the 5320 mark on a closing basis... as that sets the target for Virgin POC at 5243
By falling below 5400 and closing two days below 5400, nifty has made 5400 once again a resistence. I Expected that break past 5400, will sustain, but looks more of a false breakout as two days of closing below confirms it.
However, FII inflow has been postive both these days, and DII have been selling. Please trade with caution, as this could be a pause, for direction unknown.
For the last two days, global cues have not been good, but we have closed flat, which is an indication that we are not weak like EU markets, Japan and many asian countries, which is why we are at 52 week high and they are all 10 percent below.
However, FII inflow has been postive both these days, and DII have been selling. Please trade with caution, as this could be a pause, for direction unknown.
For the last two days, global cues have not been good, but we have closed flat, which is an indication that we are not weak like EU markets, Japan and many asian countries, which is why we are at 52 week high and they are all 10 percent below.
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A couple of index perspective for next week and this expiry -
1. Last week NF found support around 5350-60. Below this weakness.
2. In my opinion real support is around 5300 NF. Two reasons for this - 5300 PUT has OI and market held on NF gap.
3. Closing above 5400 would be positive for market and can show some rally to 5500-5550 range.
4. Last swing support is around 5230 NF.
5. Some of the key stocks are over bought and RIL is range bound or has weakness. RIL all higher levels calls has OI. It is not able to get passed 1100 due to the same reason so far.
6. NF has snapped back from weekly BB.
Happy trading!
1. Last week NF found support around 5350-60. Below this weakness.
2. In my opinion real support is around 5300 NF. Two reasons for this - 5300 PUT has OI and market held on NF gap.
3. Closing above 5400 would be positive for market and can show some rally to 5500-5550 range.
4. Last swing support is around 5230 NF.
5. Some of the key stocks are over bought and RIL is range bound or has weakness. RIL all higher levels calls has OI. It is not able to get passed 1100 due to the same reason so far.
6. NF has snapped back from weekly BB.
Happy trading!
Nifty Weekly Analysis: 18th July 2010
Tomorrow we again begin a week with global jitters around us. This has almost become a pattern for the past few months. However, every time the global markets have fallen, we have rebounded showing incredible strength. How do we read this? Do we assume that Nifty will continue to outperform or do we be cautious and still think that Nifty will fall from these levels.
It is almost certain that we are going to have a gap down tomorrow. I don't want to guess the number of points hence I will leave it for the reader to decide. It is what we do after the gap down is what holds value. I would certainly not go short on the market right away. Markets usually give us a lot of time to build our positions than what we assume. Hence, be patient.
My medium term view on the markets still remains to be bearish. I don't like to argue with the markets, but I also don't like to change my opinion based on "strength - less" rallies. Eventually if I am proven wrong, I am ready to accept that. Few days back, I had posted on this thread that markets would make an intermediate high at 5470. As of now, markets have reversed (stalled) from levels of 5453. I would certainly go short at appropriate bounce backs keeping a stop at 5470. For those who are conservative traders, I would request AW10 to post an appropriate options strategy on this thread for building bearish positions going forward.
Globally I feel markets have begun their journey downwards and we should also see volatility levels picking up. Let's see how things span out going forward. Be patient and be calm.
Tc
Tomorrow we again begin a week with global jitters around us. This has almost become a pattern for the past few months. However, every time the global markets have fallen, we have rebounded showing incredible strength. How do we read this? Do we assume that Nifty will continue to outperform or do we be cautious and still think that Nifty will fall from these levels.
It is almost certain that we are going to have a gap down tomorrow. I don't want to guess the number of points hence I will leave it for the reader to decide. It is what we do after the gap down is what holds value. I would certainly not go short on the market right away. Markets usually give us a lot of time to build our positions than what we assume. Hence, be patient.
My medium term view on the markets still remains to be bearish. I don't like to argue with the markets, but I also don't like to change my opinion based on "strength - less" rallies. Eventually if I am proven wrong, I am ready to accept that. Few days back, I had posted on this thread that markets would make an intermediate high at 5470. As of now, markets have reversed (stalled) from levels of 5453. I would certainly go short at appropriate bounce backs keeping a stop at 5470. For those who are conservative traders, I would request AW10 to post an appropriate options strategy on this thread for building bearish positions going forward.
Globally I feel markets have begun their journey downwards and we should also see volatility levels picking up. Let's see how things span out going forward. Be patient and be calm.
Tc
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