NIFTY FIFTY

[amitt29]

Holding or closing above yesterdays high of 2859 may give some respite in the coming days.
Otherwise hmmm.

 

[AMITBE]

What next Amit , looks strong here at 2852

Hi Adil...my trading portal did not connect for a while, so unable to observe closely.

However in the bigger picture, around 2905 is the 200 DMA for the Nifty, which it has broken below last couple of days.
Now, a classic technical move would be to test that level in this pullback, is what I'd say.
I doubt if it'll manage to hold it, and if so, then expect a drop back again. This can pan on over the next few of sessions.
Further, if the 200 DMA is not held, and the Nifty drops back again to test the lowest levels again, meaning 2680 area of yesterday, the players will be watching close to see if it would create a double bottom there, meaning a classic bullish sign.
Further if so, then the test of 200 DMA may transpire yet again...

There's also the Fibonacci 50% retracement levels to track, which as I pointed out this morning, sits bang on the nose of 2584, itself a Finocci number.
So whichever way you cut it, this is a critical level.


I'm just attempting to work with a 'Lego' like probability building here.
It's going to be quite interesting.

At this point if the Nifty takes out the intraday high of 2855, the next levels to look at would be 2859-2861-2864-2870-2873-2876.

 

[amitt29]

At this point if the Nifty takes out the intraday high of 2855, the next levels to look at would be 2859-2861-2864-2870-2873-2876.

Bang on with 2875.75 Amitji

 

[AMITBE]

Bang on with 2875.75 Amitji

Hi amitt29....thanks...and yes, June 11 and 12 are still on...not that June 7 or 8 were bad at all!

For the weekly roundup I'll still go with the following post made earlier on:

Hi Adil...my trading portal did not connect for a while, so unable to observe closely.

However in the bigger picture, around 2905 is the 200 DMA for the Nifty, which it has broken below last couple of days.
Now, a classic technical move would be to test that level in this pullback, is what I'd say.
I doubt if it'll manage to hold it, and if so, then expect a drop back again. This can pan on over the next few of sessions.
Further, if the 200 DMA is not held, and the Nifty drops back again to test the lowest levels again, meaning 2680 area of yesterday, the players will be watching close to see if it would create a double bottom there, meaning a classic bullish sign.
Further if so, then the test of 200 DMA may transpire yet again...

There's also the Fibonacci 50% retracement levels to track, which as I pointed out this morning, sits bang on the nose of 2584, itself a Finocci number.
So whichever way you cut it, this is a critical level.


I'm just attempting to work with a 'Lego' like probability building here.
It's going to be quite interesting.

At this point if the Nifty takes out the intraday high of 2855, the next levels to look at would be 2859-2861-2864-2870-2873-2876.

 

[pkjha30]

Emotions are always fickle. One moment you are despairing and next moment you are euphoric.

Fear of loss creates a gloomy environment and conditions the body with secretation of some harmones in order to prepare to face the impending crisis or uncertainty. Similarly, euphoria secretes another type of harmones which produces the sense of well being. Reason and rationality has nothing to do with it.

We were on extended dose of adrenaline since Oct2005. As Amit you would remember, every To Dick and Harry was telling which stocks would go up . Not many taker for what would go down.

For last one month we were deprived of our daily dose of adrenaline so the withdrawal syndrome was showing up. Now we have got helper dose in sufficient quantity. It should last one or two more days. Meanwhile bears are taken to the slaughter house for their temerity to anticipate FIIs.

Again deprivation of adrenaline and then release in free quantity so that intermediate bear run is terminated and bull run resumed.


it was a pleasure to see you go back to old levels and analyse how at that time it was played out on upmove. We see how it is played out now on down move.


Thanks Amit

Pankaj

 

[rahulg77]

Hi Agilent,

I was saying the same thing. I am just not good with words and hence maybe the confusion

So If we tallk about next primary intermediate price movement( from lows of oct 2005 to may 2006) it should retrace between 33% to 66% from those levels. That would be nearly at the levels it is now.

As also explained by you.

Of course the situation would be entirely different if we are in an intermediate downtrend instead of a bear market. In this scenario the retracement would be half of the rise from the previous intermediate low (made in late 2005). This was the arithmetic explained by Traderji a few weeks ago in response to a specific query about his target.

I was talking about retracement from last intermediate low. Thats why I was confused when traderji spoke about retracement from june 2004. What I did not know is that in bear mkt also retracement levels work. so If we talk abt retracement in a bear mkt, then instead of taking from previous intermediate low then we wld take from start of the bull run somewhere arnd 2003.

In this case does the retracement level of 50% work cause I thought in a bear market all highs could be taken out and the markets could go to any level. what you had written was this:

Using this arithmetic, Mr Robin of Blackheath Investments (if I recall the names correctly ) had stated during a long interview on NDTV Profit last week (when Nomura was touting their 7500 target) that in the worst case we could see a level of 8000-8500 on Sensex in the medium term. The assumptions he made were :
- that we are in a bear market
- that the rise from 3000 (start of the bull run) to 12000, i.e. 9000 points, could see a 3500 to 4500 points retracement.

So on general assumption even if we were in a bear mkt normal rule of thumb would only be a retracement of 50% from start of bull mkt levels. Would that be right.

Rgds

Rahul

P.S your view and also view of traderji and amitji( and other members who might consider adding to this) would be appreciated on the same.

Amitji sorry for carrying on a discussion in your thread

 

[Agilent]

Hi Agilent,

So on general assumption even if we were in a bear mkt normal rule of thumb would only be a retracement of 50% from start of bull mkt levels. Would that be right.

Rgds

Rahul

P.S your view and also view of traderji and amitji( and other members who might consider adding to this) would be appreciated on the same.

Amitji sorry for carrying on a discussion in your thread

Yes but remember the 50% figure is not cast in stone.

Meanwhile , I came across this site which illustrates long term Asian market charts . See how India took off like a rocket after Mar 03 (all of us know that of course , but see how on the 15 yr chart it looks surreal)

http://www.asiachart.com/weekly.html

(Elsewhere on this site u can look for a more meaningful BSE chart, clearly showing the intermediate phases since Mar 03)

AGILENT

 

[Czar]

yeah agilent have been following that site since few years, only thing is they have not evenly laid out the years...

I am talking about http://www.asiachart.com/india.html not the weekly

 

[rahulg77]

Yes but remember the 50% figure is not cast in stone.

Meanwhile , I came across this site which illustrates long term Asian market charts . See how India took off like a rocket after Mar 03 (all of us know that of course , but see how on the 15 yr chart it looks surreal)

http://www.asiachart.com/weekly.html

(Elsewhere on this site u can look for a more meaningful BSE chart, clearly showing the intermediate phases since Mar 03)

AGILENT

Hi Agilent,

Thank you. Will def check it out.

Rahul

 

[AMITBE]

From my long term data, the Nifty closed at an important level.
2866 begins a move in an area, or band, that has several strong conflict points, and this area reaches to 2961. At some future time when once the Nifty begins to trade above this band, Ill feel happier.
An important mark coming up in this band is 2908, which as of today, is the 200 DMA for the Nifty.
Further, a sustainable move above 2913 puts the Nifty into the thick of the band mentioned above which is 2866 to 2961. Once 2913 is conclusively taken, 2961 will not be long coming, as I see it where some major levels are 2925-2937-2949.
All this is sounding quite so positive, but theres a lot of work to be done ahead: As and when the action moves in this area, the levels mentioned above will be active.

Yet still, the strong move on Friday has every chance of turning out to be corrective bounce where the 200 DMA is likely to see much working over.
This is going to be one of the most important weeks in the life of the Nifty, as important as one is likely to ever see.
This is all for now.

For the levels one will have to wait and see how things shape out past the first hour or so.
A lot of the speculative weaker hand would likely book out, and once all that is done will clarity emerge.

To the up some step-ups are 2875-2582-2889-2896-2903.

Supports are 2858-2854-2849-2843-2840-2837-2834-2831-2828-2824.

Will be coming back to the levels again later.