NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

However, as written yesterday, we would do well to keep above 2767-2777, and this is valid till 2877 is firmly taken.

The levels for supports first, 2827-2824-2821-2818. 2818 is an important support.
Further below, 2815-2812-2809. 2809 is another important level.
Then 2806-2803-2799 for now. Will post more if needed.

To the up, 2833-2836-2839-2843. 2845 is important to keep above, and also 2849.
Then 2852-2855-2858 for now.

The levels marked in red, 2809 blocked the Nifty thrice all morning, and interestingly the end came exactly there.
2818 was quickly brushed towards the end but didn't yield.
Enclosing the chart...it's quite interesting.

 

[GlobalGyan]

Excellent analysis!! I think that 2795 level also looks interesting for tommorow.

 

[AMITBE]

Here Im making a deviation from the Nifty readings, and for the one hour morning session making an attempt to get some numbers for Reliance instead.

At the outset it should be noted that the wider market would take its cues from the signals coming from major players like FIIs, domestic fund managers, Index fund managers, HNIs etc, as mainly they would be placing huge buy/sell orders.
These players would have made their own computations to unravel the complex valuation issues surrounding the demerger of the Reliance combine. To add to all this is the late evening announcement that Reliance has successfully bid for a major real-estate deal in a prestigious location in Bombay worth over a thousand crore. This of course would be factoring into the price discovery in a big way.
Logically then, this is the subject for a study of the basic financial fundamentals rather than a technical study.

Even so, in the usual heat and the mayhem of trading, the basic mass psyche is always in attendance.
For this reason, and as a matter of interest, I have tried to get some numbers based on my technical readingsand sharing these here.
The techniques I have been employing for reading the Nifty levels have been quite consistent with its daily action, and generally the same have been applied here. The difference is, I have taken seven groups or series of numbers in roughly a range of about twelve sequential numbers each. Each sequence forms an important area or zone of conflict in either direction.
This is all for the fun of doing it as a last minute exercise and may well prove to be off.
To repeat, the matter really is for the financial managers and not for technicians.
But theres nothing like doing something to learn something.

There appear to be seven important zones.
Of these the one marked in red seems the strongest.
1. 563 to 574
2. 594 to 609
3. 658 to 667
4. 685 to 698
5. 722 to 735
6. 772 to 788
7. 802 to 816

The above quote is from the first post on Reliance about four in the morning.
Here's another interesting chart, of Reliance today past the morning session. I couldn't record the morning session as the software didn't permit it. Could have been interesting, if someone has it.
The levels marked in red are drawn in magenta on the chart.
This area indeed proved to be the strongest.
The lowest recorded in the main session was about 686 and ended at 693.70.

Most gratifying when things like this work out so well!

 

[AMITBE]

The only good that has emerged during this continued fall is that at no time has the market really cracked open.
The opportunities for this have been manylower numbers from Reliance and also its demerger saga, Infy and TCS not meeting expectations, World markets tanking etc.
So far so good, and this is some show of strength under the circumstances.
The other good is that those who had thought they had missed the party around the 2900 mark have had their entry given to them at lower levels.

So with the Reliance thing over and the Asian markets showing recovery, what now?
A rally most likely, at least a relief rally.
Thats pretty much it.

And how high could that go before getting stressed out again?
Right away some important levels coming up are 2829-2833-2838-2843-2848.
Of these, 2833 and 2843 appear to be strong in either direction.
In the shorter sequence the levels are 2814-2817-2820-2823-2826.
Then 2832-2836-2840, which about strings all these together.
More later if need be.
Supports are at 2806-2803-2799-2796-2793. 2786 is strong.

 

[AMITBE]

And how high could that go before getting stressed out again?
Right away some important levels coming up are 2829-2833-2838-2843-2848.
Of these, 2833 and 2843 appear to be strong in either direction.
In the shorter sequence the levels are 2814-2817-2820-2823-2826.
Then 2832-2836-2840, which about strings all these together.
More later if need be.
Supports are at 2806-2803-2799-2796-2793. 2786 is strong.

With 2848 finally been taken after a struggle, and if it's held, 2852-2854-2856 for immediately above. It would be important to stay above 2854 if progress is to be made.
Then 2862-2864-2869.

 

[AMITBE]

Over and over again the Nifty showed fantastic resilience over the past several sessions in the face of acute challenges.
As many times this fact has been mentioned here.
Then finally the latent strength surfaced yesterday to unleash a strong rally.
There were many scores of bullish counter awaiting the signal for all the days the market was facing the bear offensive, and flying now.

Where to now?
To return to my numbers series, 2877 and 2889 have been written of many times as levels where above and below the Nifty would get a churning.
2799, the other corner had it in itself to shake it around too, before allowing it to go.
Well, 2799 did it again, and now the play has returned to 2877-2889.
The other important number mentioned above these is 2917. Readers would remember surely. It's all there in the back pages.
So we are looking for action in this region now.
2917 was attempted several times in recent times without success, and its to be seen how long it tries the Nifty this time.
Not too long perhaps.

On the time front, today is very likely to create a launching pad.
From here to January 31 is a crucial phase where the Nifty can go as high as the numbers would take it.
Two numbers are vying for attention: 2953 and 2979.
This is what Im arriving at in this study.

The levels:
2879-2883-2887-2891. Both 2887 and 2891 are important in either direction while crossing.
Then 2896-2901-2906-2911. So much for now, and more later should the need arise.
Supports are at 2868-2865-2863-2860-2856. 2860 and 2856 are strong.
Then 2853 and 2850.

 

[AMITBE]

The levels:
2879-2883-2887-2891. Both 2887 and 2891 are important in either direction while crossing.
Then 2896-2901-2906-2911. So much for now, and more later should the need arise.
Supports are at 2868-2865-2863-2860-2856. 2860 and 2856 are strong.
Then 2853 and 2850.

Couldn't quite break above 2911 after brushing 2912 for a moment.
Never mind...got a foot in the door to the 2900s at close finally.

 

[AMITBE]

To mystify things even more, the Nifty in a dramatic and ironical manner, closed on the nose of the twilight zone at 2899.85. Twilight zone, the threshold, a liminal space, the same thing.
Above that level are the sunlight days of 2900 plus, and directly below is the gateway to the gloom of the netherworld.

Im picking the above quote from the mornings post on January 6 to begin today. Since then the Nifty has tested support at 2780 levels.
The quote below is from the same day, post noon:

2917 was lost and so was everything else.
2877 has held the fall for now, and that also happens to be one of the turning points besides 2889 mentioned.
It seems the play around these levels has begun at last.

The Nifty could never really take 2917 despite attempting it twice and got as far as 2927 intraday. And as for the turning points mentioned, well, the play did last there for a spell and even tested supports a hundred points lower still at another critical zone, 2799.

The two quotes above have been pulled to highlight the fascination that these numbers have with repetitive patterns, and also to point at the drama and flare with which they play out their progress.
Yet again about two weeks later the Nifty is poised at that vey same point: There is hardly any difference between 2899.85 from then, and 2900.95 today.
Yet again the sunshine days above 2900 beckon the Nifty.
And again 2917 is the enchanted level to take and hold. This level was pointed out as early as mid December when the Nifty had just finally broken above 2835 levels.

So where to now?
A few days ago I had written that a hundred points above 2865 is full of congestion.
2917 remains to be taken.
How high could things go from here?
A couple of sessions ago I had suggested a couple of numbers that are coming up: 2953 and 2973. These would be interesting to watch when the action gets there.
And today is a bad day for sure, mainly for the US markets tacking a sharp fall.
Nothing more to add for now, the levels etc are clear for now.

For today, 2906-2909 are important to clear to begin with, then 2915-2918-2922-2925. Will come back with more as running out of time, and supports are more important for now.
2894-2889-2886-2882. 2882 is important to hold and 2876.

 

[AMITBE]

For today, 2906-2909 are important to clear to begin with, then 2915-2918-2922-2925. Will come back with more as running out of time, and supports are more important for now.
2894-2889-2886-2882. 2882 is important to hold and 2876.

Wow! Can hardly keep pace with the numbers here.
2870 was the low on Friday and did the trick again this time.
2886 is important to take and keep above, then 2894.

 

[AMITBE]

Wow! Can hardly keep pace with the numbers here.
2870 was the low on Friday and did the trick again this time.
2886 is important to take and keep above, then 2894.

Looking pretty weak at this point and the above levels are a must for improvement.
Should 2870 get broken, we may see a quicker fall in the short term.
Supports below 2870 are 2867. 2865 is an important mark.
Then 2861-2858-2854 where 2854 is another strong number.
I again maintain this is a passing phase and strength should return in due course. There are matters pending in the 2900s still.
For now 2876, the level mentioned in the first post today has held.