NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

Yesterday, and on a few previous occasions I had written of unfinished business into the 2900s.
The reason is the enormous staying power the market has shown in the face of severe force to the down. We have seen this over and over again over the past many sessions.
It was no different yesterday where the global scenario gave every reason for a sharp plunge, and our market just took it in its stride with some marginal pullback, comparatively.
2900s are certainly beckoning and appear to be within striking distance.
The important levels/criteria have been mentioned before and to recap, a close above 2917 is the prime condition.
When the action moves in that zone, the climb may well turn out to be strained and volatile as I am finding a fair deal of congestion I the next 60 odd points in the numbers here.

The numbers to the up: 2890 and 2900 are the important levels to scale for above average gains. 2906-2909-2912 are important too.
Strung together they are 2888-2892-2895-2898-2901-2904-2906-2909-2912.
To the down, supports are at 2880-2877-2874-2871-2868-2865.

 

[AMITBE]

The numbers to the up: 2890 and 2900 are the important levels to scale for above average gains. 2906-2909-2912 are important too.
Strung together they are 2888-2892-2895-2898-2901-2904-2906-2909-2912.
To the down, supports are at 2880-2877-2874-2871-2868-2865.

Great move!
But too quick too soon.
If there are speculative players active, expect volatility.
Above 2912 we are looking at 2915-1918-2922.
2926 is way high but it's there.

 

[AMITBE]

The numbers to the up: 2890 and 2900 are the important levels to scale for above average gains. 2906-2909-2912 are important too.
Strung together they are 2888-2892-2895-2898-2901-2904-2906-2909-2912.
To the down, supports are at 2880-2877-2874-2871-2868-2865.

Except for the early morning rush to 2914 off, 2912 was attempted several times...and didn't break through.
Interesting chart so uploading.

 

[AMITBE]

Yesterday in the second post minutes after the huge gap-up opening, I had written if speculative hands are active then expect much volatility.
Volatility was minimal yesterday, which normally should be seen as a good sign with strong and committed hands moving in.
The converse of this would be that yesterday may turn out to be the lull before a proverbial storm.

At long last finally 2917 is there to be taken.
It has been crossed before but today there is every chance that it would be held.
On the other hand, the F&O expiry would cause much volatility in either direction but the momentum to the up has been built up already going into the session today. At some point the bears should make a sharp move, however, even if the danger of a fall is not grave at all.

Writing any more at this point would be repetitive as the readers know the views on the importance of 2917 and the likely volatile nature of the climb from there on.

To go on to the numbers then, though 2911-2912 levels have shown themselves as strong resistances within the last three sessions, yet from the readings here it is 2917 where lies the magic.
In the last several sessions though there were not many occasions where 2877 and 2889 featured strongly, the fact is that this area remained pivotal in either direction. The Nifty has churned and remained volatile both above and below here. Both these numbers were mentioned as turning points for a new bull orbit. Play may well return here at some point in the near future, as it did to 2799 (named as a previous turning point) just a few sessions ago.

To the up the levels of conflict are 2912 and 2915 from yesterday. Then past 2918 the strong numbers are 2921-2924-2927, each of which could see much conflict. More later if need be.
Supports are at 2905 which should be strong in either direction. Then 2903-2901-2897 where 2897 is another strong level. Then 2894-2891-2887.

 

[AMITBE]

To the up the levels of conflict are 2912 and 2915 from yesterday. Then past 2918 the strong numbers are 2921-2924-2927, each of which could see much conflict. More later if need be.
Supports are at 2905 which should be strong in either direction. Then 2903-2901-2897 where 2897 is another strong level. Then 2894-2891-2887.

For the second time in two days: Wow! What a move!!
The sudden rush of blood aside, which is not quite natural, 2934-2937-2939-2941 form the range even if improbable.
The rest of the levels are valid fully.

 

[srisara]

looks like the announcement of the 100% FDI in retail sector did the trick. May be chidambaram wanted to give a kick to Sensex to move past 10,000

good going as of now.

Satya

 

[AMITBE]

Quite right Satya...and some kick this is.
From 2934-2937-2939-2941 mentioned earlier, this one can even test 2944 if there's no let up.
This is also short covering driven. And they'll be shorting even stronger now.

 

[AMITBE]

2949 may have sucked out the last drop from this move, and a great one indeed.
Except for a select few the midcaps have mostly taken a beating. The move is obviously on poor a/d ratio.
So the money all went to the index counters. Hopefully it'll return here going ahead. There are some fantastic numbers out this result season.

 

[AMITBE]

This was written on January 20 :

From here to January 31 is a crucial phase where the Nifty can go as high as the numbers would take it.
Two numbers are vying for attention: 2953 and 2979.
This is what Im arriving at in this study.

The Nifty is up and moving sharp with the last session peaking at 2949 and closing at 2940, and looking to go higher.
On such a day, the concern was the terrible a/d ratio and if this is not corrected going ahead, any progress would be burdened by the shadow of scepticism and would remain untenable.

The other concern is if this is really the pre-budget rally, then it is peaking a little too early. If this is indeed premature, then we may expect a scale down in the near term, the hype of Sensex at 10000 notwithstanding. The sense of purpose behind conquering new peaks in the markets is not for the record books alone.

2917 was finally collared hard, and for now has been buried underneath the dust of the fierce movement on Wednesday.
However, one aspect of this rally post Diwali is the laboured nature of it. New peaks have been won only after grim struggles, and no matter how quick and hard the rise comes finally, a sharp pullback always follows to check for strength much lower.
There is no immediate reason why this pattern would be discarded now.
A return to below 2917 in the near term would not be a surprise at all.
January 31 is one date I would be watching out for...for a possible peak in the near term.
There is another reading which had suggested congestion between 2865 and 2965 as mentioned earlier. Up to 2917 this has proved to be true. The rest still waits to be seen.

The levels: 2943-2949-2952-2955-2958-2961. Of these 2946 is strong in either direction and also 2961. Above 2967 would be further bullish territory and will post when and if the action moves there.
Supports are at 2937-2934-2931-2926-2923-2919-2916. 2931, 2926 and 2916 are strong levels.

 

[AMITBE]

The levels: 2943-2949-2952-2955-2958-2961. Of these 2946 is strong in either direction and also 2961. Above 2967 would be further bullish territory and will post when and if the action moves there.
Supports are at 2937-2934-2931-2926-2923-2919-2916. 2931, 2926 and 2916 are strong levels.

Rather manic, this market with these gap-ups hitting the high bands given here the last three sessions.
2969 was hit for a moment.
If there's more, then above 2967 there is 2970-2973-2976-2979.