NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

The playgrounds here in our markets do resemble the pitches at Lahore and Faisalabad dont they.
The problems come when batsmen become complacent after a run feast.
A Karachi like wicket may appear out of nowhere so do be technically perfect.

Another way of saying the same thing is the market is on steroids, but without an adequate dose of vitamins.
The midcaps and a/d ratios have not been too convincing and consistent with the rally.
Be cautious as the near-term peak may be near.
I'm still not too sure if this really is a pre-budget rally.

Technical perfection in the above allegories simply suggests tight stops.
Sensex at 10000 will come and go and come again and does not amount to a great deal, but reckless and unmindful trading can lead to real losses.

Not much to say here, so on to the levels. And these in any case took a drubbing in Fridays pandemonium.
2988-2992-2994-2998-3000-3003-3005-3007. 3005 and 3007 are strong levels.
Should the festive mood continue, 3010-3012-3014 form the band from Friday's levels. Should there be more, will go looking. The gap-up openings are becoming a way of life lately.
Supports are at 2980-2977-2974-2971-2968 for now.

 

[Saint]

Very nice......NIFTY at 3000.

Having said that,not the time to go gung ho on buying right now.......except in select few.

Saint

 

[AMITBE]

2988-2992-2994-2998-3000-3003-3005-3007. 3005 and 3007 are strong levels.
Should the festive mood continue, 3010-3012-3014 form the band from Friday's levels. Should there be more, will go looking. The gap-up openings are becoming a way of life lately.
Supports are at 2980-2977-2974-2971-2968 for now.

A tricky wicket at last.
If the fall continues, 2961 has the potential to form a strong support. Then 2957 and 2955. Below 2953 not a lot I can see.

 

[AMITBE]

One last time Im bringing out the following post from January 20, because today is Jan 31 and that post had a reference to today.
The full post is here: http://www.traderji.com/31408-post797.html

On the time front, today is very likely to create a launching pad.
From here to January 31 is a crucial phase where the Nifty can go as high as the numbers would take it.
Two numbers are vying for attention: 2953 and 2979.
This is what Im arriving at in this study.

The Nifty had closed at 2900.95 that evening.
Going into trade this morning, 2979 mentioned Jan 20 is very close to 2974.50 where it closed last night.

To go back to yesterdays post, Id written the market is on steroids, but without an adequate dose of vitamins, as the midcaps and a/d ratios had not been too convincing and consistent with the rally.
If anything this got worse yesterday, and even if the Nifty closed flat, the underlying weakness is underscored by the plunging a/d ratio. The extent of profit booking in so many strong counters is not a good sign at all on the face of it.
I had also written I've not too been sure if this really is a pre-budget rally.

Yes, nobody can predict the markets and it will do its own thing, but as far as signs and signals go, theres not a lot on the positive side as of now, this morning.
Yes, Reliance has begun a move and ONGC may stage a recovery, and some good numbers have come from several majors and more expected today.
Yet the balance of the sum of all the factors remains on somewhat nervous grounds for now.
Volatility should abound wherever the action goes.

To the levels:
Supports are at 2970-2964-2960-2958-2956-2952. 2952 is strong.
2945 and 2938 are also good.
Im going deep on supports just in case.
To the up, 2976-2979-2982-2986-2990-2992-2996-3000.
Should the market want to rally, will come back with more.

 

[AMITBE]

Supports are at 2970-2964-2960-2958-2956-2952. 2952 is strong.
2945 and 2938 are also good.
Im going deep on supports just in case.
To the up, 2976-2979-2982-2986-2990-2992-2996-3000.
Should the market want to rally, will come back with more.

Well...the market is doing what it wants to for now.
Be ever so watchful, nevertheless.
Should there be progress from here, the levels to conquer above 3000 are 3002-3005-3009-3012 in the immediate vicinity.
If 3012 goes, 3015-3018-3021 are a logical band.

 

[AMITBE]

A crossover at 3005-3009 yesterday would have put the Nifty in a pretty firm position for today.
3005 was attempted in a last minute dash but didnt hold.
This, and the fact that there is continued profit booking at higher levels in the wider market negate a clear cut bullish outlook.
In any case the market moves over the past few sessions have been confusing the charts all around, I believe. No one is able to make a call clearly to the up, while the bias remains for a move to the down.
A major correction may not happen off the bat due to a few index biggies holding things up, and then that frenzied howl for Sensex at 10000 may likely keep things afloat...and that wish may even be fulfilled.

However, there is a strong feeling reflected in these posts the last few sessions that a fall of an unknown magnitude is coming upon the market, whether now or from the 10000 mark.
For timing, we are still in the orb of negative dates.

So to supports and going deep again obviously:
2999-2997-2993-2990-2987-2984-2981-2978-2975-2972.
Of these 2993, 2990 and 2978 appear strong.
2967 and 2969 are coming up as firm base supports.

To the up, 3005-3008-3011-3014-3017. Above here there appears to be much density to numbers like 3019-3021-3023-3025, all the way to 3033 and more.

 

[AMITBE]

No more negative a/d ratio, breadth and depth etc.
Let's just take things easy.
So well, the Karachi wicket did turn sour for India, as did the euphoria of late last and early this week.
Over 600 runs for victory and Sensex at 10000 proved too big for the players on the field and those in the markets.
But hey, the ODIs are yet to be played and our players on either side of the border would surely be regrouping for another assault in due course.
There is much talent there, just as there is much liquidity here.

If the resilience at lower levels displayed in the recent past is anything to go by, we can be assured that it wouldnt be any different this time.
A regrouping, meaning testing strength at lower levels has its infallible virtue and this fact has come true over and over again over the past several weeks.

So how low is lower levels?
All within the 2900s, Id say.

What happens today should clarify this question.
2961 was tested yesterday.
Some strong numbers further below are 2952-2945-2938-2931-2924-2917.
On the other hand, a higher close would not come as a surprise either.
For this to happen, the magic number to keep above would be 2983.
2996 appears too distant at this time, but thats another important number to the up.

Closer together the supports are:
2968-2965-2962-2959-2956-2952-2948-2944-2938.
Of these, 2954-2949-2944 are important. More later if needed.

To the up, 2974-2977-2980-2983 to begin with.
If the Nifty starts trading above these firmly, will follow with more.

 

[AMITBE]

No more negative a/d ratio, breadth and depth etc.
Let's just take things easy.
So well, the Karachi wicket did turn sour for India, as did the euphoria of late last and early this week.
Over 600 runs for victory and Sensex at 10000 proved too big for the players on the field and those in the markets.
But hey, the ODIs are yet to be played and our players on either side of the border would surely be regrouping for another assault in due course.
There is much talent there, just as there is much liquidity here.

If the resilience at lower levels displayed in the recent past is anything to go by, we can be assured that it wouldnt be any different this time.
A regrouping, meaning testing strength at lower levels has its infallible virtue and this fact has come true over and over again over the past several weeks.

So how low is lower levels?
All within the 2900s, Id say.

What happens today should clarify this question.
2961 was tested yesterday.
Some strong numbers further below are 2952-2945-2938-2931-2924-2917.
On the other hand, a higher close would not come as a surprise either.
For this to happen, the magic number to keep above would be 2983.
2996 appears too distant at this time, but thats another important number to the up.

Closer together the supports are:
2968-2965-2962-2959-2956-2952-2948-2944-2938.
Of these, 2954-2949-2944 are important. More later if needed.

To the up, 2974-2977-2980-2983 to begin with.
If the Nifty starts trading above these firmly, will follow with more.

So ok...is this some match practice or short covering?
Both, quite likely.
To take it above 2971 close yesterday, 2974-2977-2980-2983-2986-2989-2992-2996. Above 2996 there is much congestion to 3000-3004-3008.
These levels would work to the down too, but as there is a good chance of sharp selling at higher levels, they may not hold too strong.
2983 and above would be considered strong.

 

[AMITBE]

Only a move above 2973-2977-2983 that can be sustained will help.
To the down, a break at 2965-2962 could put strong pressure.

 

[AMITBE]

Twice in the last two sessions the attempts at Sensex at 10000 fizzled out by a thin margin getting thicker.
The match practice allegory from yesterday was alluding to this testing of waters at higher levels.
Wellto begin with the market does not have enough firepower at this time to get higher. The reason obviously is the persisting dismal a/d ratio. How far can things go on the back of a select few.
Whatever heights were achieved the last three sessions were most likely due to weak and speculative hands scampering to cover shorts after the initial gap-ups.
Also some big gun counters have been quiet and subdued, and the players do take their cues from here.
Further there are no real triggers left now that the results are mostly all out.
So, as suggested here, the hype that began late last week was not really a pre-budget rally as the timing was premature.
At best it was a result rally on account of panic buying from cash rich players rushing to take positions.

To the positives, there is reason to believe that the expected slide waiting ahead of the session today would not plunge too deep. Theres a lot of money freshly invested that needs to be protected, with more set to come in at lower levels. Looking back at the past several fall days, this is exactly the pattern played out.
Further, there are no real triggers to bring about a cutting correction too. So yes, there is reason to believe the fall would find buying support sooner than later.

From yesterdays post then, some important areas of support are: 2952-2945-2938-2931-2924-2917.
For the rest, they are 2965-2962-2959-2955-2952-2948-2944-2940. Of these, 2948 and 2940 appear strong.

On the up, again a crossover at 2973-2977-2983 that can be sustained will help.
The levels to there and a few beyond are 2971-2974-2977-2980-2983-2986-2989.