NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

Its difficult, in all fairness, to call the markets at this point.

More money has newly come in. Where does this want to go.
A few index heavies have been underperforming. When will they kick in.
Some other index heavies have been rocking. When will they start correcting.
Sensex at 10000 has come and gone. What else is left in the immediate term.
So there is a mishmash of all these issues and more.

On the other hand, our markets have been running against the international trend which has been showing weakness lately.
Add to this the fact that it is common knowledge that the valuations here are way overboard.

The a/d readings have declined again and at the end of yesterday they stood evenly poised.
In a volatile session yesterday, its mainly short covering that sent the markets spurting in the last half hour. This amounts to false readings and not an organic kind of spurt, and the savvy players would not and should not be lured into gay abandon.

Between today, Feb 8 and Feb 10, we may be looking at some high volatile activity in one or the other direction.
3065 could see an important event when and if the action moves there. 3139 is another level coming up, but for a future time perhaps as its too far high to come into play in the near term.
On the downside, 2997 and 2938 are also coming up.

Be very cautious and very specific, to leave matters at a sensible note.

To the up the levels are 3024-3028-3032-3034-3038-3040. 3036 is important to cross and hold to keep climbing.
To the down are 3018-3015-3013-3010-3007-3004-3001-2998-2994. Of these 3013-2998-2994 are stronger than others.
Will post more in either direction if needed.

 

[AMITBE]

Between today, Feb 8 and Feb 10, we may be looking at some high volatile activity in one or the other direction.
3065 could see an important event when and if the action moves there. 3139 is another level coming up, but for a future time perhaps as its too far high to come into play in the near term.
On the downside, 2997 and 2938 are also coming up.

Be very cautious and very specific, to leave matters at a sensible note.

To the up the levels are 3024-3028-3032-3034-3038-3040. 3036 is important to cross and hold to keep climbing.
To the down are 3018-3015-3013-3010-3007-3004-3001-2998-2994. Of these 3013-2998-2994 are stronger than others.
Will post more in either direction if needed.

A pretty strong move that...with 2984 pushing the Nifty back for now.
Below 2992 are 2987-2982-2978.
2994 is doing it for now.

 

[AMITBE]

After losing some ground on Wednesday its still noteworthy that the Nifty has managed to keep at and above the 3000 mark the last three sessions.
So the momentum has not quite been altogether lost even if the movement has been rather sideways.
The 3000 plus territory retains the feel good factor even if the issues raised Wednesday morning still remain:
More money has newly come in. Where does this want to go.
A few index heavies have been underperforming. When will they kick in.
Some other index heavies have been rocking. When will they start correcting.
Sensex at 10000 has come and gone. What else is left in the immediate term.

Going into trade this Friday morning it does feel as if some significant activity lies ahead in one or the other direction, impossible to say which.
Certain levels were mentioned Wednesday morning and they are still good for now.
Very specific stock selection and extreme caution is the only way to trade the markets in these conditions, and there's nothing more of greater significance to add.

On the up, 3021 is the first important level to cross, then 3029.
Along the way are 3012-3015-3018-3021-3027-3027. More later.
To the down, 3007-3004-3001-2997-2993-2991-2989. Of these 3001-2993-2989 are strong. 2983-2980-2977 are further supports.

 

[AMITBE]

On the up, 3021 is the first important level to cross, then 3029.
Along the way are 3012-3015-3018-3021-3027-3027. More later.
To the down, 3007-3004-3001-2997-2993-2991-2989. Of these 3001-2993-2989 are strong. 2983-2980-2977 are further supports.

It's not quite been an aimless meandering kind of a session so far...far from it.
A tad uncertain perhaps but with no crucial levels breached in either direction.
Friday afternoons have been creating interesting closings in the last little while.

If 3026 is tested again coming into the home run, above 3029 is 3033 where some pivots could send the Nifty to the next line at 3036-3039-3042-3045.
These are up there and there's hardly time, but they are there.
These are good going ahead too.

 

[AMITBE]

You wonder who it might be who are thumbing their collective noses at the analysts who have been calling for a significant correction in the markets for some time now.
Thanks mainly to the strong flow of liquidity, the markets have been rebellious and have been marching along with a rare show of aplomb and tenacity.

But then, you also wonder who indeed will have the last laugh.
And oh, there is another side of this expression isn’t there.
It goes: He who laughs last, laughs the longest.

I for one am extremely uneasy at this point and while keeping tight stops, will also go cash sometime soon.
This is all the advice going in this morning.

This morning, the morning after the strong rally on Friday, however, does offer the obvious indication of a move higher. This is what such Mondays end up doing.
Ironically, as one goes into a likely strong session, the feeling of euphoria remains rather world-weary.
The over-riding and niggling thoughts keep drifting towards the likely correction waiting ahead.

The following is from February 8 and is being pulled out here going ahead as similar quotes have been posted by some members on Nifty wave counts on Saturday:

3065 could see an important event when and if the action moves there. 3139 is another level coming up, but for a future time perhaps as it’s too far high to come into play in the near term.
On the downside, 2997 and 2938 are also coming up.

Please do be very vigilant.

To the up is the line at 3033-3037-3041-3045-3049-3051-3055. Of these 3041 and 3055 are strong, meaning in either direction. If the action wants to go further, the next few numbers are 3059-3062-3065-3069.

Supports are at 3024-3021-3018-3015-3012-3007-3005-3000. Of these 3015-3007-3000 should be strong.

 

[AMITBE]

To the up is the line at 3033-3037-3041-3045-3049-3051-3055. Of these 3041 and 3055 are strong, meaning in either direction. If the action wants to go further, the next few numbers are 3059-3062-3065-3069.

Supports are at 3024-3021-3018-3015-3012-3007-3005-3000. Of these 3015-3007-3000 should be strong.

The Nifty has fallen below 3042 high for now.
Anything above 3041 is good but 3048-3051-3054 would be even better, and this is he line at this point.

 

[bharatk8]

nifty roc has given negative diversion for second consecutive day,so tomorrow it is going to show weakness.if tomorrow it closes between 3041 and 3083 it will show negative diversion for 3rd day,which will signal major correction,chances of such event are very slim. let us see

 

[AMITBE]

For all the gains of about fifteen points the Nifty made yesterday, the movement was nothing but flat. There was neither momentum nor volatility, and whatever volatility was there, it was confined to a narrow band.
So the first concern for today is yesterdays flat range.
Is the market tired, and the players already feeling the effects of vertigo at these largely unwarranted heights.
Then there was pressure from the international markets of course and its no different this morning.

One positive factor in all this is, while the markets have been reluctant to go vertical, they have certainly been doing well on the horizontal.
The market breadth the last couple sessions has been quite good, suggesting more enthusiasm which is clearly showing up in the small and midcaps.
However, the volume had dropped yesterday and this is another important concern.

Are we close enough to the budget to see this rally peaking out at some higher level in a continuous upmove from here.
Or are we far enough still to squeeze in a correction before getting on with it.
Yet, with the budget fast approaching, the downside would not appear too threatening in the immediate term.
This fact, and the strong flow of liquidity should certainly take care of that.
Even so, interesting times lie ahead.
Caution and selective buying have never been more crucial.

3042-3045-3048-3051-3054-3057-3060-3063-3066 are to the up.
3054 and 3066 are important to take and stay above. 3060 is strong too.
More later.

Supports are at 3040-3036-3034-3030-3026-3022.
3034-3026-3022 appear to be strong.
3014 and 3009 could be considered strong base.

 

[AMITBE]

3042-3045-3048-3051-3054-3057-3060-3063-3066 are to the up.
3054 and 3066 are important to take and stay above. 3060 is strong too.
More later.

Supports are at 3040-3036-3034-3030-3026-3022.
3034-3026-3022 appear to be strong.
3014 and 3009 could be considered strong base.

If the Nifty can take out 3039 and 3042 at this time it can make good gains.
4047 then becomes important to rise above to keep strength.
Else 3034-3030 etc become weak.

 

[nkpanjiyar]

If the Nifty can take out 3039 and 3042 at this time it can make good gains.
4047 then becomes important to rise above to keep strength.
Else 3034-3030 etc become weak.

Did you mean 4047 or 3047 !

cheers,
nkpanjiyar