For the third day running, it would sound repetitive to write here that the Nifty survived some crucial supports yet again yesterday, the fact is it did.
And to be repetitive again, despite the wafer thin loss yesterday, it still closed in the green area as far as trigger levels go.
The trading range got tighter in both directions too, and the common convention in TA would suggest that something has to give soon.
That something has a pretty good chance of happening today.
On the time front, from a mid to short term readings this is what is coming up: Today and/or Monday.
Several times yesterday the Nifty tested the trigger at 3037 area without follow through buying.
Failing which, the dips didnt quite go through the floor, far from it.
Now, a lot has been hyped up on the budget, whether that makes a difference to the strong hands or not. These are the guys missing from action over the last few tests at the upper levels. (the market has been in the hands of speculative small players lately, obviously). In any case, where they biggies put their money is a good guess.
Obviously it is the big guns in the index that need to fire to set the market moving, not that its not been moving lately in select sectors and counters, and at a pretty decent market-breadth too.
Yet still, the big counters are the market movers and so whats the big deal with the budget then?
There is. Institutional taxation policy would be one strong booster, whether fringe benefit tax or duty reduction or what have you. The vast and complex gamut of revenue issues. This covers auto, exports (read Infy), energy (read Reliance/petro etc), infrastructure and on and on. The issue is too long to discuss here.
The news should begin trickling out soon to those close to power.
But we are still not clear from the specter of a correction yet so keep a good tight control on stops.
To the up, its important to take and stay above 3028-3030, then 3033-3037. If and when the action moves above 3041 which is a trigger level, 3044-3047-3050 form the next band. Further in theory at least, 3053-3059-3064 is another band to the up.
To the down 3018-3014-3012-3009-3006-3003. Below 3000 is the band at 2997-2994-2991-2988. 2978-2974 are base supports.
Strong levels are in red.