NIFTY FIFTY
- Thread starter AMITBE
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So for the second day running the Nifty survived some crucial levels and crossed marginally into the green territory. Green not as in the marginal gain recorded, but as in closing above negative triggers the last two sessions.
And for the second day running we can go into the session with hope of a rise.
In a bull market the bottom lines are well protected, and more so where liquidity awaits every decline to pouch the good ones.
The real issue here is the high grounds. For the past several hundred points we have seen a strong resistance at each high where no new peak was taken without a fifty to hundred point test to the down.
The most recent 3000 mark was conquered after a retracement to an intraday low at 2931.
2900 mark was taken only after falling back to the close at 2809.
2850 was taken after going back to test strength at 2749.
And now the fight is to take 3050.
Has the Nifty fallen back deep enough yet at yesterdays low of 2995? The previous day low was 2909, so the low has gotten lower but the high has stuck around 3050 both days.
So its going to be an interesting session ahead to see where the action leads to in either direction. Going by the record books, one could say more action is awaited at lower levels. It was mainly FMCG doing the good work yesterday with none of the big guns really up to it.
But seeing how close we are to the budget where news begins to leak out early, we may as well expect some strong buying sometime soon where buying pressure above a few triggers would so easily send the bears covering shorts.
The daily trading range has got narrow, a good sign too.
Movement is in any case going to remain stock specific.
Interesting times, as always.
Yesterday the Nifty jumped high at the opening but didnt hang in.
Again today the important levels to take for keeps are 3025-3028-3024-3031-3037. Above 3043 could be dense, yet there are some important triggers above here which may help, so more later.
On the down, 3016-3013-3010-3008-3005-3000-2997-2993-2989. Of these 3013-3005-3000-2997 are appearing strong. 2981 is coming as a base support.
And for the second day running we can go into the session with hope of a rise.
In a bull market the bottom lines are well protected, and more so where liquidity awaits every decline to pouch the good ones.
The real issue here is the high grounds. For the past several hundred points we have seen a strong resistance at each high where no new peak was taken without a fifty to hundred point test to the down.
The most recent 3000 mark was conquered after a retracement to an intraday low at 2931.
2900 mark was taken only after falling back to the close at 2809.
2850 was taken after going back to test strength at 2749.
And now the fight is to take 3050.
Has the Nifty fallen back deep enough yet at yesterdays low of 2995? The previous day low was 2909, so the low has gotten lower but the high has stuck around 3050 both days.
So its going to be an interesting session ahead to see where the action leads to in either direction. Going by the record books, one could say more action is awaited at lower levels. It was mainly FMCG doing the good work yesterday with none of the big guns really up to it.
But seeing how close we are to the budget where news begins to leak out early, we may as well expect some strong buying sometime soon where buying pressure above a few triggers would so easily send the bears covering shorts.
The daily trading range has got narrow, a good sign too.
Movement is in any case going to remain stock specific.
Interesting times, as always.
Yesterday the Nifty jumped high at the opening but didnt hang in.
Again today the important levels to take for keeps are 3025-3028-3024-3031-3037. Above 3043 could be dense, yet there are some important triggers above here which may help, so more later.
On the down, 3016-3013-3010-3008-3005-3000-2997-2993-2989. Of these 3013-3005-3000-2997 are appearing strong. 2981 is coming as a base support.
So 3013 has done well for now, called as one of the strong levels for today.
To the up, 3036.65 has halted the rise where 3037 was mentioned as top level in the morning post.
For now, provided 3013 has formed the bottom, it's important to take 2929 to get a move on to 3033 and 3037 again.
If so, it may well be backed with follow through buying.
3013 has to remain the base for this.
Else, the support levels remain as mentioned this morning.
To the up, 3036.65 has halted the rise where 3037 was mentioned as top level in the morning post.
For now, provided 3013 has formed the bottom, it's important to take 2929 to get a move on to 3033 and 3037 again.
If so, it may well be backed with follow through buying.
3013 has to remain the base for this.
Else, the support levels remain as mentioned this morning.
For the third day running, it would sound repetitive to write here that the Nifty survived some crucial supports yet again yesterday, the fact is it did.
And to be repetitive again, despite the wafer thin loss yesterday, it still closed in the green area as far as trigger levels go.
The trading range got tighter in both directions too, and the common convention in TA would suggest that something has to give soon.
That something has a pretty good chance of happening today.
On the time front, from a mid to short term readings this is what is coming up: Today and/or Monday.
Several times yesterday the Nifty tested the trigger at 3037 area without follow through buying.
Failing which, the dips didnt quite go through the floor, far from it.
Now, a lot has been hyped up on the budget, whether that makes a difference to the strong hands or not. These are the guys missing from action over the last few tests at the upper levels. (the market has been in the hands of speculative small players lately, obviously). In any case, where they biggies put their money is a good guess.
Obviously it is the big guns in the index that need to fire to set the market moving, not that its not been moving lately in select sectors and counters, and at a pretty decent market-breadth too.
Yet still, the big counters are the market movers and so whats the big deal with the budget then?
There is. Institutional taxation policy would be one strong booster, whether fringe benefit tax or duty reduction or what have you. The vast and complex gamut of revenue issues. This covers auto, exports (read Infy), energy (read Reliance/petro etc), infrastructure and on and on. The issue is too long to discuss here.
The news should begin trickling out soon to those close to power.
But we are still not clear from the specter of a correction yet so keep a good tight control on stops.
To the up, its important to take and stay above 3028-3030, then 3033-3037. If and when the action moves above 3041 which is a trigger level, 3044-3047-3050 form the next band. Further in theory at least, 3053-3059-3064 is another band to the up.
To the down 3018-3014-3012-3009-3006-3003. Below 3000 is the band at 2997-2994-2991-2988. 2978-2974 are base supports.
Strong levels are in red.
And to be repetitive again, despite the wafer thin loss yesterday, it still closed in the green area as far as trigger levels go.
The trading range got tighter in both directions too, and the common convention in TA would suggest that something has to give soon.
That something has a pretty good chance of happening today.
On the time front, from a mid to short term readings this is what is coming up: Today and/or Monday.
Several times yesterday the Nifty tested the trigger at 3037 area without follow through buying.
Failing which, the dips didnt quite go through the floor, far from it.
Now, a lot has been hyped up on the budget, whether that makes a difference to the strong hands or not. These are the guys missing from action over the last few tests at the upper levels. (the market has been in the hands of speculative small players lately, obviously). In any case, where they biggies put their money is a good guess.
Obviously it is the big guns in the index that need to fire to set the market moving, not that its not been moving lately in select sectors and counters, and at a pretty decent market-breadth too.
Yet still, the big counters are the market movers and so whats the big deal with the budget then?
There is. Institutional taxation policy would be one strong booster, whether fringe benefit tax or duty reduction or what have you. The vast and complex gamut of revenue issues. This covers auto, exports (read Infy), energy (read Reliance/petro etc), infrastructure and on and on. The issue is too long to discuss here.
The news should begin trickling out soon to those close to power.
But we are still not clear from the specter of a correction yet so keep a good tight control on stops.
To the up, its important to take and stay above 3028-3030, then 3033-3037. If and when the action moves above 3041 which is a trigger level, 3044-3047-3050 form the next band. Further in theory at least, 3053-3059-3064 is another band to the up.
To the down 3018-3014-3012-3009-3006-3003. Below 3000 is the band at 2997-2994-2991-2988. 2978-2974 are base supports.
Strong levels are in red.
There was a rally to 3018 following the previous post, and again no follow through buying came in.
Then falling again, the next test of 3003 came with greater force of volume, and then the crack.
So something had to give, and it did.
So far so good as no major damage is yet done, though a weekly close of this kind with volume and breadth is a negative on technicals, for the short term yet.
One positive is that yet again the day's critical base support at 2978-2974 mentioned in the first post this morning didn't get blown. The slide was halted at 2976.70 which is about as close as it gets.
Another positive, to go looking for one, is that this weekly close of 2981.50 did not clearly take out a previous weekly close at 2982.75 from January 27. What happens next week is to be seen, but this too is good as of now.
Over the weekend would be looking for some key mid to short term supports.
Till then.
Then falling again, the next test of 3003 came with greater force of volume, and then the crack.
So something had to give, and it did.
So far so good as no major damage is yet done, though a weekly close of this kind with volume and breadth is a negative on technicals, for the short term yet.
One positive is that yet again the day's critical base support at 2978-2974 mentioned in the first post this morning didn't get blown. The slide was halted at 2976.70 which is about as close as it gets.
Another positive, to go looking for one, is that this weekly close of 2981.50 did not clearly take out a previous weekly close at 2982.75 from January 27. What happens next week is to be seen, but this too is good as of now.
Over the weekend would be looking for some key mid to short term supports.
Till then.
All key statements by you Amit (apologies for editing your post for quoting purposes) & significant ones at that. My salutations to you my dear friend, your analyses of the NIFTY on a daily basis are out-of-this-world & a guiding light for me (don't know about others tho') in this dark maze of trading the stock markets.
As I have said before, am saying now & will say again & again; your analyses of the NIFTY is .... what shall I say .... beyond compare.... and don't forget that there are any number of so-called commentators on the Indices nowadays. Am not flattering you Amit, I mean what I say & if I do meet you someday & somewhere, I'll say what I mean.
Keep your analyses coming in Amit. I for one will unabashedly confess that I look forward to your daily comments & analysis.
As I have said before, am saying now & will say again & again; your analyses of the NIFTY is .... what shall I say .... beyond compare.... and don't forget that there are any number of so-called commentators on the Indices nowadays. Am not flattering you Amit, I mean what I say & if I do meet you someday & somewhere, I'll say what I mean.
Keep your analyses coming in Amit. I for one will unabashedly confess that I look forward to your daily comments & analysis.
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