NIFTY FIFTY
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Was it real life buying that sent the Nifty ripping late yesterday, or was it panicked bears covering hard.
The answers, and the near term outlook for the Nifty, loll in there, more tilted towards the bear panic angle.
If so, the acid test around the 3004 mark mentioned yesterday is even more severe now.
If weak hands were in control yesterday, they are yet again at the levels that have proved to be their nemesis recently. Their bullish posturing would soon be abandoned and much changing of ships midstream would happen.
Also, if the sole purpose of the climb yesterday was to shore up the index, this would be proof that the strong hands at this point are merely interested in keeping the momentum in their favour: keeping some crucial levels safe to the down, yet holding the action close enough to be within striking distance of crucial triggers to the up.
Why the waiting game?
Thats a good question.
The money in their pockets is tickling their sides, but they are biding their time yet.
When would it be time?
The answer is awaiting in the near term.
Factors like a/d ratio, poor showing of the midcaps etc. are real concerns.
For now, skillfully dealing with volatility in both directions is the only way to go.
To supports first, 3006-3000-2997-2994-2992-2990-2986-2983-2980-2977-2974. 2961 is the likely base support.
To the up, 3012-3016-3020 is the first line to scale and command. Then 3024-3028-3032-3036. More later if need be.
Strong numbers are in red.
The answers, and the near term outlook for the Nifty, loll in there, more tilted towards the bear panic angle.
If so, the acid test around the 3004 mark mentioned yesterday is even more severe now.
If weak hands were in control yesterday, they are yet again at the levels that have proved to be their nemesis recently. Their bullish posturing would soon be abandoned and much changing of ships midstream would happen.
Also, if the sole purpose of the climb yesterday was to shore up the index, this would be proof that the strong hands at this point are merely interested in keeping the momentum in their favour: keeping some crucial levels safe to the down, yet holding the action close enough to be within striking distance of crucial triggers to the up.
Why the waiting game?
Thats a good question.
The money in their pockets is tickling their sides, but they are biding their time yet.
When would it be time?
The answer is awaiting in the near term.
Factors like a/d ratio, poor showing of the midcaps etc. are real concerns.
For now, skillfully dealing with volatility in both directions is the only way to go.
To supports first, 3006-3000-2997-2994-2992-2990-2986-2983-2980-2977-2974. 2961 is the likely base support.
To the up, 3012-3016-3020 is the first line to scale and command. Then 3024-3028-3032-3036. More later if need be.
Strong numbers are in red.
Very interesting play at 3024 for almost a half hour, and it would be good to hold above 3018-3020, the longer the better.
3032 holds the key. If this can be taken and held, then past 3035, the possibility of 3038-3041-3044 become real.
Can all these levels written above be held this time round is the reality test.
3024 from the quote above has been marked in red now, and not in the first post, to highlight the prolonged action here.
3032 holds the key. If this can be taken and held, then past 3035, the possibility of 3038-3041-3044 become real.
Can all these levels written above be held this time round is the reality test.
3024 from the quote above has been marked in red now, and not in the first post, to highlight the prolonged action here.
Last edited:
3042.05 is as high as the move went but there was much resistance here.
Then at some point it seemed the market would drop sharp:
Well, it did, but 3024 did the job, and those with intraday charting can see the dramatic drop off 3042 levels all the way to 3024 in one go.
On certain days certain numbers have it in them. 3024 equally dramatically gave a sharp bounce, and but for a quick glitch at 3032, the Nifty kept going.
3035 close with good a/d ratio and ok volume is looking good.
Then at some point it seemed the market would drop sharp:
Well, it did, but 3024 did the job, and those with intraday charting can see the dramatic drop off 3042 levels all the way to 3024 in one go.
On certain days certain numbers have it in them. 3024 equally dramatically gave a sharp bounce, and but for a quick glitch at 3032, the Nifty kept going.
3035 close with good a/d ratio and ok volume is looking good.
Mondays climb had posed the question: Was that real-life buying or short covering that had moved the Nifty up sharply after playing with danger on Friday last.
The conclusion was both of the above, with the tilt favouring short covering.
Yesterdays climb has tilted the issue in favour of real-life buying.
Mondays climb had also thrown up a real challenge: Approaching 3000 plus levels yet again was going to be the acid test of reality.
The strong statement from the markets yesterday was, the acid test became a cakewalk.
(Quicksands are the perverse inverse mirror image of cakewalks, so caution).
Yesterday another issue was how long it would be before the big money stepped in. Suggestion was, in the near term.
Immediate term was more like it, as it turned out.
The concern with the negative a/d ratio also got all but sorted out.
And so finally the pre-Budget rally has arrived.
Sensex at 10000 a while ago was the opening act, and the main performance is set to begin with the return of Sensex at 10000.
The concern now is what the Dream-Team dishes out.
Thanks to the politics of coalition, the political imperatives may well overrule the fiscal necessity. Caution again.
And we go in today with much trouble in the global markets.
Hang in with tight stops.
The levels:
To the up its important to get above 3044-3047-3050-3053-3056. Will post more if the action moves to 3060.
It's important to close above 3056 for the momentum.
Supports are at 3032-3030-3026-3022-3018-3015-3009. 2991 and 2994 are strong base as of now.
The conclusion was both of the above, with the tilt favouring short covering.
Yesterdays climb has tilted the issue in favour of real-life buying.
Mondays climb had also thrown up a real challenge: Approaching 3000 plus levels yet again was going to be the acid test of reality.
The strong statement from the markets yesterday was, the acid test became a cakewalk.
(Quicksands are the perverse inverse mirror image of cakewalks, so caution).
Yesterday another issue was how long it would be before the big money stepped in. Suggestion was, in the near term.
Immediate term was more like it, as it turned out.
The concern with the negative a/d ratio also got all but sorted out.
And so finally the pre-Budget rally has arrived.
Sensex at 10000 a while ago was the opening act, and the main performance is set to begin with the return of Sensex at 10000.
The concern now is what the Dream-Team dishes out.
Thanks to the politics of coalition, the political imperatives may well overrule the fiscal necessity. Caution again.
And we go in today with much trouble in the global markets.
Hang in with tight stops.
The levels:
To the up its important to get above 3044-3047-3050-3053-3056. Will post more if the action moves to 3060.
It's important to close above 3056 for the momentum.
Supports are at 3032-3030-3026-3022-3018-3015-3009. 2991 and 2994 are strong base as of now.
Extremely volatile session, and expected so a day before f&o expiry and the condition at the international markets.
A poor showing on a/d ratio again as in the midcaps.
A good closing nevertheless and hope to close above the important 3047 mark.
Uploading chart as it gives a good look at the volatility in both directions.
A poor showing on a/d ratio again as in the midcaps.
A good closing nevertheless and hope to close above the important 3047 mark.
Uploading chart as it gives a good look at the volatility in both directions.
Attachments
Yesterday mornings post carried a cautionary remark as to the fine line dividing a cakewalk from quicksand.
The two were likened to being a perverse inverse image of one another.
One invokes the pleasing image of something nice and soft, a goal easily accomplished. (The term comes from a game like performance by the slaves where the winners were given pieces of cake, back then in America).
The other, quicksand, is the dreaded trap that leads the victim into the netherworld, a morass.
But the subject here is not semantics, nor semiotics.
The reason for this take is that times are such.
A pre-Budget rally is just that.
And more so till the breadth of the market remains in the negative and the Midcaps dont participate.
The action is going to be very sector specific, and within that the fancied ones would win.
Be sure of whats in the portfolio.
The f&o expiry is always interesting and choppy and this ones going to be no different.
On the face of it we are now outside the twilight zone, having edged out higher past the 3040 area, but just about. Even so, this is bullish territory for sure.
This is a make or break kind of a day, for the near term action.
While the dice is loaded overwhelmingly in favour of the bulls, in terms of the time factor, there are negative divergences as well.
The levels to the up: The important level is at 3059 to keep above. The line is 3053-3056-3059. Then 3062-3065-3068-3071. Beyond this the line is 3074-3077-3080.
3065 was mentioned in a couple of previous posts as an area of contention, the link is here towards the bottom of the post: http://www.traderji.com/34369-post864.html. This can come into play.
Supports are at 3047-3043-3041-3039-3036-3033-3031. 3027-3028 look like base supports for now.
The two were likened to being a perverse inverse image of one another.
One invokes the pleasing image of something nice and soft, a goal easily accomplished. (The term comes from a game like performance by the slaves where the winners were given pieces of cake, back then in America).
The other, quicksand, is the dreaded trap that leads the victim into the netherworld, a morass.
But the subject here is not semantics, nor semiotics.
The reason for this take is that times are such.
A pre-Budget rally is just that.
And more so till the breadth of the market remains in the negative and the Midcaps dont participate.
The action is going to be very sector specific, and within that the fancied ones would win.
Be sure of whats in the portfolio.
The f&o expiry is always interesting and choppy and this ones going to be no different.
On the face of it we are now outside the twilight zone, having edged out higher past the 3040 area, but just about. Even so, this is bullish territory for sure.
This is a make or break kind of a day, for the near term action.
While the dice is loaded overwhelmingly in favour of the bulls, in terms of the time factor, there are negative divergences as well.
The levels to the up: The important level is at 3059 to keep above. The line is 3053-3056-3059. Then 3062-3065-3068-3071. Beyond this the line is 3074-3077-3080.
3065 was mentioned in a couple of previous posts as an area of contention, the link is here towards the bottom of the post: http://www.traderji.com/34369-post864.html. This can come into play.
Supports are at 3047-3043-3041-3039-3036-3033-3031. 3027-3028 look like base supports for now.
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