NIFTY FIFTY

Status
Not open for further replies.

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
The day is here finally accompanied by hectic analysis on what India needs from the FM, and what would eventually come out.
What is needed is mostly all obvious but what is given gets influenced by the give some-take some requirements of the political balance-pole.
And give some-take some is what its going to be most likely.
Agri, infra, banking, health, expo, textile, gas, petroleum, tourism, power, cement, these are the obvious ones set to flare.
A good day for quick-wits, and a possible trap if not alert.

As the FM reads his fiscal text in Parliament, there is a good chance of profit booking by those who accumulated a lot of the related stocks which have been doing well lately. On the other hand, some will continue to progress for further buying pressure.
The major concern the markets would keenly follow is of course the issue of capital gains and transaction taxes. A lot is being held here and this, amongst others, is where the Left allies would bay for blood. Its not going to be easy to balance this one. An insignificant change or a status quo is a likely outcome, but then those who are overtly optimistic on this may find this as a negative.
Any knee-jerks on account of disappointments may well get equaled out from certain other doles, and the other way round of course, so there is no call for a major swing in either direction. That will come later, perhaps later this week.
Sound trading systems and risk management have never been so vital for survival.

In an over heated condition, how the conflict levels posted every morning pan out would be interesting to see.
3066-3070-3074, this is the vital line to hold above.
Then 3077-3080-3083-3086.
Beyond this 3089-3092 should hold the key.

Supports are 3063/64-3061-3056/58-3053-3048-3046-3043-3040-3037.
3031-3028 seem like strong base.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
AMITBE said:
3066-3070-3074, this is the vital line to hold above.
Then 3077-3080-3083-3086.
Beyond this 3089-3092 should hold the key.

Supports are 3063/64-3061-3056/58-3053-3048-3046-3043-3040-3037.
3031-3028 seem like strong base.
While the economists pore over the fine print before giving their verdict, the market is struggling to digest it all.
Quite a slip, but nothing to go pale over.
3044 and 3056 need to be traded above for some time to get a clearer picture at this time.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
If it aint broke, dont fix it.
And that pretty much is that: No news is good news.
A learned FM who knows his idioms well, would not venture too far out to break new fiscal ground just yet, especially when tinkering with the Common Minimum Program could disturb the UPA applecart.
So, as expected, the give some take some political balance pole had signaled an insignificant change or a status quo yesterday morning, and thats what we saw by yesterday afternoon.
In an act of finesse, the FM had his Left allies looking on helplessly as he unveiled a grass root oriented Budget going into a few state elections later in the year.
The political imperatives have been attended to, and one cannot quite point at any glaring incongruity in the plan of action.

So, where to from here.
When the main text is simplistic enough, the fine lines are unlikely to spring any hidden bugs.
The markets would go on where they were heading in the first place, as far as one can make out.
Whether they are heading to a peak, or a bottom, wellwell just go along with what comes along.

Interestingly, however, the levels at either end of the days range yesterday were mentioned as 3028-3031 to the down, and 3089-3092 to the up.
The swing took the Nifty down at the low of 3031.80, and a high of 3090.30.
The close at 3074.70 may suggest a tilt in favour of the bulls, but then we are in a bull market, so nothing more should be read into that.
But what should be carefully looked into is the continuing negative breadth.
This is not giving a pleasing signal, and unless this straightens out, not going long would be the prudent thing to do.
Else, be nimble footed enough to survive.

The levels, 3080, 3088 and 3092 appear to be the challenges.
The line is at 3077-3080-3084-3086-3088-3092.
Past 3094-3096, the next line is 3100-3104 for now.

Supports are 3072-3068-3066-3063-3060-3057-3054-3051.
3042-3045-3048 is another line.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
AMITBE said:
The levels, 3080, 3088 and 3092 appear to be the challenges.
The line is at 3077-3080-3084-3086-3088-3092.
Past 3094-3096, the next line is 3100-3104 for now.

Supports are 3072-3068-3066-3063-3060-3057-3054-3051.
3042-3045-3048 is another line.
Above 3097 is the line at 3100-3103-3106-3109-3112 in case the Nifty wants to get there.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
AMITBE said:
Above 3097 is the line at 3100-3103-3106-3109-3112 in case the Nifty wants to get there.
Wow...
3117 is the magic number for possible 3122-3127-3132.
These are potential for today and valid over the next couple of days.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
srisara said:
no stopping AMIT here........

great going my friend.....

Satya
Hey Satya...thank you my friend.
Perhaps that should read no stopping the Nifty?! :)
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
The two big B words were planned well to come in close succession:
Budget first, and now Bush.
Corporate India would have many positives from this visit, even if there is a loud protest from several quarters.
The protest is primarily on grounds of the eco-political ideology pursued by the US which is pretty uncouth as far as that goes.
But so what.
This sentiment is so well made popular by that famous Americanism of the Mad magazine's Alfred E. Neuman:
What? Me worry?
Hang the protests.
Its all about money, honey.
The party is on.
Make it work for you as long as it lasts.

The point of concern raised yesterday was the ongoing negative breadth.
While this improved during the session yesterday, holding a slightly positive edge at close, it didnt quite keep pace with the sharp rise clocked on the Nifty.
For now this appears as the only dampener, besides of course the perils of sustaining stretched valuations.

3139 had been posted here a while ago as an important mark.
A similar level has been recently posted at certain other threads on Elliott analysis of the Nifty.
We are close to there now, and it would hold my interest for research.

As it appears that the Nifty is in the midst of some congestion from my readings, 3144 is the important mark to cross and hold.
The line is 3126-3128-3132-3136-3140-3144.

Supports are 3117-3114-3109-3107-3104-3100-3097-3094-3091-3088.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
AMITBE said:
The two big ‘B’ words were planned well to come in close succession:
Budget first, and now Bush.
Corporate India would have many positives from this visit, even if there is a loud protest from several quarters.
The protest is primarily on grounds of the eco-political ideology pursued by the US which is pretty uncouth as far as that goes.
But so what.
This sentiment is so well made popular by that famous Americanism of the Mad magazine's Alfred E. Neuman:
‘What? Me worry?’
Hang the protests.
It’s all about money, honey.
The party is on.
Make it work for you as long as it lasts.

The point of concern raised yesterday was the ongoing negative breadth.
While this improved during the session yesterday, holding a slightly positive edge at close, it didn’t quite keep pace with the sharp rise clocked on the Nifty.
For now this appears as the only dampener, besides of course the perils of sustaining stretched valuations.

3139 had been posted here a while ago as an important mark.
A similar level has been recently posted at certain other threads on Elliott analysis of the Nifty.
We are close to there now, and it would hold my interest for research.

As it appears that the Nifty is in the midst of some congestion from my readings, 3144 is the important mark to cross and hold.
The line is 3126-3128-3132-3136-3140-3144.

Supports are 3117-3114-3109-3107-3104-3100-3097-3094-3091-3088.
Never really can say, eh?
Above 3144, the line is 3149-3154-3159-3164-3169 if the action moves on.
The previous levels mentioned are still on though.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads