NIFTY FIFTY

[Saint]

Yesterday mornings post carried a cautionary remark as to the fine line dividing a cakewalk from quicksand.
The two were likened to being a perverse inverse image of one another.
One invokes the pleasing image of something nice and soft, a goal easily accomplished. (The term comes from a game like performance by the slaves where the winners were given pieces of cake, back then in America).
The other, quicksand, is the dreaded trap that leads the victim into the netherworld, a morass.
But the subject here is not semantics, nor semiotics.
The reason for this take is that times are such.
A pre-Budget rally is just that.
And more so till the breadth of the market remains in the negative and the Midcaps dont participate.
The action is going to be very sector specific, and within that the fancied ones would win.
Be sure of whats in the portfolio.

The f&o expiry is always interesting and choppy and this ones going to be no different.
On the face of it we are now outside the twilight zone, having edged out higher past the 3040 area, but just about. Even so, this is bullish territory for sure.
This is a make or break kind of a day, for the near term action.
While the dice is loaded overwhelmingly in favour of the bulls, in terms of the time factor, there are negative divergences as well.

The levels to the up: The important level is at 3059 to keep above. The line is 3053-3056-3059. Then 3062-3065-3068-3071. Beyond this the line is 3074-3077-3080.
3065 was mentioned in a couple of previous posts as an area of contention, the link is here towards the bottom of the post: http://www.traderji.com/34369-post864.html. This can come into play.

Supports are at 3047-3043-3041-3039-3036-3033-3031. 3027-3028 look like base supports for now.

Hi Amit,

Description par excellence,my friend........am sure this thread has gone a long way in lifting the standard of English in all those who read this thread with avid interest.Now I am going to have a dictionary as well next to my computer.The next time you shoot words like semantics and semiotics ,I would be well prepared.Armed with my dictionary,I am sure I'll be able to decipher those brilliant writings of yours.

Great stuff,my friend,and keep em coming!

Saint

 

[VICKY_SEEKINGINR]

Thanks Saint....

I was thinking that only I am the person who is having
the problem in understanding the High Vocab....

 

[AMITBE]

Hi Amit,

Description par excellence,my friend........am sure this thread has gone a long way in lifting the standard of English in all those who read this thread with avid interest.Now I am going to have a dictionary as well next to my computer.The next time you shoot words like semantics and semiotics ,I would be well prepared.Armed with my dictionary,I am sure I'll be able to decipher those brilliant writings of yours.

Great stuff,my friend,and keep em coming!

Saint

Thanks Saint....

I was thinking that only I am the person who is having
the problem in understanding the High Vocab....

Aw shucks guys...the heck with the lingo thing, ok!
Just get 'em numbers and lines shakin on the charts and chill out like...

 

[Saint]

Aw shucks guys...the heck with the lingo thing, ok!
Just get 'em numbers and lines shakin on the charts and chill out like...

 

[AMITBE]

The levels to the up: The important level is at 3059 to keep above. The line is 3053-3056-3059. Then 3062-3065-3068-3071. Beyond this the line is 3074-3077-3080.
3065 was mentioned in a couple of previous posts as an area of contention, the link is here towards the bottom of the post: http://www.traderji.com/34369-post864.html. This can come into play.

Supports are at 3047-3043-3041-3039-3036-3033-3031. 3027-3028 look like base supports for now.

At this point the key is at 3074 mentioned above. If this is held long enough, it could set up a test of 3077-3080.
If 3080 is taken and held, 3084-3087 may well follow.

The above was posted at 1.54 PM.
The white cursor points there on the chart.
Interesting to see the fight over and over again at 3074.
The sharp dip towards the end fell past 3059 mentioned as the level to keep above in the first post, and this dip is stopped at the line at 3056 from that post.
The close above 3059, at 3062 is ok though above 3065 would have been better, and the fight there at the end is also interesting to see.
Not bad despite the loss of higher levels, for a close.

 

[AMITBE]

Into the thick of the pre-Budget rally, and not a lot of happy faces.
The final verdict for yesterday for all the gains, and the loss of gains too from much higher levels, is that it was more than a tad of a damp squib.
Even if the close came above the important 3059. Not a lot exists between 3059 and 3062.
Its the negative a/d ratio, and non-participation of the midcaps that weighs heavily upon the market, and its not looking good.
The three legged race is on again and we have seen how far that goes, from past records.

Fridays after the f&o expiry normally turn out lackluster and flat, if not out rightly bearish.
However the Railway Budget is on today, and with the Union Budget just past the weekend, there should be a more than a little buzz and animation, even if a little muffled. Unless of course the midcaps begin to move with wider participation.
Id say a lot hinges on this.
And this is all there is to say.

For the levels, 3069-3070 are marks to take and hold. Then 3075 and 3078. Above 3081 are 3084-3087-3090.
Together they are 3064-3067-3069/70-3075-3078-3081-3084-3087-3090.

Supports are at 3059-3055-3052-3049-3046-3043-3040-3037.

 

[AMITBE]

However the Railway Budget is on today, and with the Union Budget just past the weekend, there should be a more than a little buzz and animation, even if a little muffled. Unless of course the midcaps begin to move with wider participation.
Id say a lot hinges on this.
And this is all there is to say.

For the levels, 3069-3070 are marks to take and hold. Then 3075 and 3078. Above 3081 are 3084-3087-3090.
Together they are 3064-3067-3069/70-3075-3078-3081-3084-3087-3090.

Supports are at 3059-3055-3052-3049-3046-3043-3040-3037.

In a perverse way the midcaps are participating today. That is, they are not breaking down just yet.
Ok, that's participation enough from the laggards.

 

[AMITBE]

For the levels, 3069-3070 are marks to take and hold. Then 3075 and 3078. Above 3081 are 3084-3087-3090.
Together they are 3064-3067-3069/70-3075-3078-3081-3084-3087-3090.

Supports are at 3059-3055-3052-3049-3046-3043-3040-3037.

Should 3037 be threatened, 3033 and 3030 are back-up supports.
To the up, 3052-3055 are needed to be taken and held to get a move up.

 

[AMITBE]

Should 3037 be threatened, 3033 and 3030 are back-up supports.
To the up, 3052-3055 are needed to be taken and held to get a move up.

A break below 3046-3043 could see a sharp dip.
A move above 3052 is important to negate this.

 

[AMITBE]

A couple more days to go before the market recalibrates its trajectory for the near term at least.
The FM holds the key in what he spells out in the Budget and it is THE event the market awaits.
If that is not enough, then a couple of days later President Bush arrives to set up several important issues, nuclear energy being the prime one, and its energy that the powerhouse of India Inc hungers for.
As we Indians take great pride in our tradition of warm welcome, the markets may well stand up to the ritual of hospitality in giving an appropriate salutation to the important visitor who is also the face of Capital Power, or capitalist imperialism if one goes with the Marxist allies.
A few fun-filled days lie ahead and more than a few quick kills would be screaming to be had.
Well, just as long as the two big events dont turn out to be a double whammy, and the chances of that are slim, a near term lower bottom does not appear to be on the cards.
Thats about it for now.

To the levels, 3059 and 3068 are the levels to scale to go for a strong close.
The first line appears to be at 3053-3057-3061-3063-3065.
Then 3069-3071-3074-3077.

Supports at 3048-3045-3042-3039-3036-3033-3030-3027.