NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

All key statements by you Amit (apologies for editing your post for quoting purposes) & significant ones at that. My salutations to you my dear friend, your analyses of the NIFTY on a daily basis are out-of-this-world & a guiding light for me (don't know about others tho') in this dark maze of trading the stock markets.

As I have said before, am saying now & will say again & again; your analyses of the NIFTY is .... what shall I say .... beyond compare.... and don't forget that there are any number of so-called commentators on the Indices nowadays. Am not flattering you Amit, I mean what I say & if I do meet you someday & somewhere, I'll say what I mean.

Keep your analyses coming in Amit. I for one will unabashedly confess that I look forward to your daily comments & analysis.

Hi Jaideep…whoa my friend!
So nice to see you here in a long while.

Thanks very much for the feedback and appreciation, and I value it more for the earnestness and the genuineness with which you give.

It’s great too, for at times this thread feels like a ghost town, or should I say a one ghost town!
And to make it a little more eerie, it feels like a lot of loud thinking that I do here in my solitude, for all that echos in my head, and then these words give it sound…from my head to these quiet pages.
Then some numbers get churned around in the midst of the silent din, some in red, others in bold-black, which I stick on to the charts, and then I sit back to enjoy a good fight.
That’s pretty much it.

Thanks ever so much Jaideep, and for you alone these words:

Friend,
In the praise you bestow
I hope that you do know
You’re anything but too thrifty,
Them words, did ya know
So fondly I do stow
And ain’t they so very NIFTY!

By the way, I’d left behind a couple of messages for you a while ago, wonder if you found them:
http://www.traderji.com/29849-post5.html
http://www.traderji.com/29889-post2335.html


Also, do please enable your private messaging, will you.

Bye for now.

 

[bharatk8]

between 2955 and 2963 there are 3 supports...1,25DMA.,it has provided good support for more than 3months....2,autotrendline (AD.GET)....3,Gannline...PTI has rised from 89 to99 indicating support coming in this region and possibility of recovery....contra view.....divergence of only one day in cl/roc on thursday has resulted in fall of 40 pts. ,which has signalled failure swing in rsi.....if nifty breaks supports (2955)with increased volummes we will witness major correction....i invite other techies with their comments by quoting signals of other indicators.

 

[AMITBE]

This is from Feb 16:

In a bull market the bottom lines are well protected, and more so where liquidity awaits every decline to pouch the good ones.
The real issue here is the high grounds. For the past several hundred points we have seen a strong resistance at each high where no new peak was taken without a fifty to hundred point test to the down.
The most recent 3000 mark was conquered after a retracement to an intraday low at 2931.
2900 mark was taken only after falling back to the close at 2809.
2850 was taken after going back to test strength at 2749.

The fight for 3000 plus levels was not going to be an easy one, and along with the outbreak of the bird-flu, the market is finally now displaying possible early signs of an outbreak of vertigo.
The fall on Friday is indeed not to be taken lightly even if the quote above only talks of a 50 to 100 points correction referenced from the record books.
Somewhere in the recent posting above, it was mentioned that the Sensex at 10000 appeared as a premature peaking with the hype of the pre-Budget rally.
Well, Sensex at 10000 has come and gone yet again, this time in the descending path, with the Budget ostensibly still being negotiated with the Left allies.

Now here is the real issue:
The dream-team comprises of an acclaimed economist as the PM, a savvy finance man as the FM with a host of other bright sparks of the field crunching the complex issues of an emerging markets economy, that is also the preferred destination for BIG MONEY world wide.
So, does the Dream-Team want to be burdened by the specter of a reversal of a multi-year rocking bull-run, on the eve of presenting the nations earnings guidance, in a manner of speaking to be in sync with our subject.
Certainly not.
That would be a disaster, a financial fauxpas, a political suicide of sorts, alienation from the BIG MONEY, a managerial foot-in-mouth statement, and the list runs long.
No, I dont believe the Dream-Team wants to dig itself into a bad bad hole for all it is worth.
Not when the India Inc. has put in all the hard work to create a launching-pad for a bright future going ahead.
And not when the Capital Markets are seen as in important face and measure of the nations wholesome wellness.
We should expect to hear more than a few early feel-good leaks coming by very soon.

The other important aspect in the picture is the huge amount of funds waiting with the various institutions, foreign and domestic.
These will have their backrooms working overtime to figure where they should step in.
These guys dont wait for MACD crossovers for buy signals: They initiate the move and then catch all of it.
With all the competition in their segment, the rising demand for emerging market funds, and the responsibility of efficiently handling the zillions of Dollars, there is intense buying pressure on them. Surely.
We can expect to see their money, and probably not at too deep levels.

And finally there is the f&o expiry coming up this week, back to back with the Budget.
Without going into this too much, all it would take is to take a couple of important levels to the up, and its own mechanism would do the rest to stablise the expected volatility to the down.
To firmly take sides with the bears in a bull market would normally be considered poor business sense.

Thus, all in all the bigger picture does not appear to support the theory of a major reversal just yet.
A 50, 100 or more points correction is certainly a good thing in the long run, and those who trade with skill and discipline never fear this.

To the levels, this was written quite recently:

3065 could see an important event when and if the action moves there. 3139 is another level coming up, but for a future time perhaps as its too far high to come into play in the near term.
On the downside, 2997 and 2938 are also coming up.

Taking this from here, 2937-2938 area is coming up as a base support for now.
Immediately to the down the first support line is at 2977-2974-2971-2968-2966. Here 2966 is important.
Further below is the 2958-2961 strong area. Then the line at 2955-2952-2949 where 2949 looks good. And then 2946-2943-2940-2938.
In extreme volatility, 2925-2929 may be tested. These are good over a few days.
2877 is another level to look at moving ahead.

To the up, 2984-2992-3000 have to be taken first.

 

[Saint]

Great article as always,my friend........always a delight to read your posts.You have given us all 2000 great posts and looking forawrd to thousands more.


Saint

 

[AMITBE]

Great article as always,my friend........always a delight to read your posts.You have given us all 2000 great posts and looking forawrd to thousands more.


Saint

Hi Saint..thank you friend for those words.
The right atmosphere has been created in this forum, and it's nice to participate here. Let's do all we can to keep it that way.

For now if the line at 2980-2983 can be scaled and held, selling pressure would decrease noticably.
Then the next line would be 2986-2989-2992.

 

[AMITBE]

For now if the line at 2980-2983 can be scaled and held, selling pressure would decrease noticably.
Then the next line would be 2986-2989-2992.

The possibility:
With 2989 tested again and struggling to hold, and if holds for a bit for a bounce back, 2992 in a second attempt would come relatively easy. This is the magic number to hold. If held, the acid test could come at 3001-3004.
If not, the down is down anyway.

 

[srisara]

voila........................

Amit, Just punch your numbers on graph and overlap the NIFTY Chart after 1 p.m and see...... you are so closeeeee dear..............................

great going my friend.....

also, congrats to those who could bravely survive today and for losers dont loose heart, keep learning from here and your day is not far......

Satya

 

[karthikmarar]

voila........................

also, congrats to those who could bravely survive today and for losers dont loose heart, keep learning from here and your day is not far......

Satya

Satya

Nifty up .93%, Nifty Junior down -1.02% and Nifty Midcap down -1.37%. Looks like losers will far far outnumber the survivors.....

regards

 

[AMITBE]

voila........................

Amit, Just punch your numbers on graph and overlap the NIFTY Chart after 1 p.m and see...... you are so closeeeee dear..............................

great going my friend.....

also, congrats to those who could bravely survive today and for losers dont loose heart, keep learning from here and your day is not far......

Satya

Thanks Satya.
This was at 2.26 PM. The hand-pointer shows this spot:

The possibility:
With 2989 tested again and struggling to hold, and if holds for a bit for a bounce back, 2992 in a second attempt would come relatively easy. This is the magic number to hold. If held, the acid test could come at 3001-3004.
If not, the down is down anyway.

Then when 2992 was taken by the Nifty, note the sharp climb with nothing stopping it except for a small hiccup at 3004.
2904 area was looking like a tough one, but the momentum carried the action well past this.
A strong close for sure, notwithstanding the poor breadth most of the session. This has become a routine.
The important factors pointed at in the morning post have all come into play. Especially this:

And finally there is the f&o expiry coming up this week, back to back with the Budget.
Without going into this too much, all it would take is to take a couple of important levels to the up, and its own mechanism would do the rest to stablise the expected volatility to the down.
To firmly take sides with the bears in a bull market would normally be considered poor business sense.

The poor showing from the midcaps etc should improve for a few day ahead, Karthik. What happened today was much needed in the face of the looming crisis.
The red horizontal lines on the chart are the suggested strong levels.
Great show indeed.

 

[GlobalGyan]

Hi AMITBE, how do you come up with these numbers? Can the same (formula/method/framework) be applicable for individual stocks too?