NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

Hi gvnarendra, if you see this from April 5:

The other issue is of turning points and gaps, especially of important long range levels.

As for turning points, at this point Id rather go with a couple of likely levels quite higher up from the current levels: 3544 and 3561. These are still candidates, and no confirmation yet.

To important gaps left behind by the Nifty quite recently, which also includes a likely turning point level in there.
A likely turning level is 3425. A few more important levels are 3442 and 3459.
This is the first time, looking at my data, that a likely turning point has been left behind tucked into a gap.
Im interested in seeing what unfolds in the near term.

Well, today, all in a session the various important turning points, and recent gaps all but filled out.

To the up, the high at 3555 took 3544 with it, with 3561 stil to be tested.

On the down, 3459 got covered with 3442 just about escaping, with today's low at 3446.
3425, the major level mentioned in the quote, may see its due respects soon too.


For the rest, a pullback did appear to be on the cards, the bait being the big news items on Infy, Zee, L&T, Holcim etc leading to the big gap up and then the dump. Once the Nifty couldn't hold above 3539 (see morning post and attached chart), the setting was perfect for the big dump.

On the positives, the weekly close still maintains the up trend.
The day's close came above the falling trendline marked as XXX, at 3455, one of the lower supports mentioned later in the sell off.

Very interesting session indeed.
Have a nice one all.

 

[gvnarendra]

Hi gvnarendra, if you see this from April 5:




Well, today, all in a session the various important turning points, and recent gaps all but filled out.

To the up, the high at 3555 took 3544 with it, with 3561 stil to be tested.

On the down, 3459 got covered with 3442 just about escaping, with today's low at 3446.
3425, the major level mentioned in the quote, may see its due respects soon too.


For the rest, a pullback did appear to be on the cards, the bait being the big news items on Infy, Zee, L&T, Holcim etc leading to the big gap up and then the dump. Once the Nifty couldn't hold above 3539 (see morning post and attached chart), the setting was perfect for the big dump.

On the positives, the weekly close still maintains the up trend.
The day's close came above the falling trendline marked as XXX, at 3455, one of the lower supports mentioned later in the sell off.

Very interesting session indeed.
Have a nice one all.

Hello Amitbe,

Truly was an interesting session. An hour back I heard from a friend that there was news on CNBC that some section of FIIs would not be allowed to trade in F&O from now on, just prior to the sell off. But, After the selloff they apologised that they were wrongly informed. This news is true or not I donot know, just passing on the information.Well,if this is really true it surely is a crooked play.

And one more thing. I was keenly observing volumes on nifty futures. Volume from just after the fall to the end of the session was about 1.3 crores! This has been the volumes on an average day. Well, if the news is true, big players have bought at the end and market heading to go up tomorrow.

,
gvnarendra

 

[AMITBE]

Much has been written and discussed on the whisper campaign that flared into a market wide fear causing the sharp sell off on Friday afternoon. A firm bull market should be able to take that in its stride, or should I say charge.

However, there are two important points to consider:
One, we all know there is big money twitching around, waiting to pile on.
Will this money wait for just a little longer, seeing weakness creeping in, to allow the action to slide further down, before coming on board.
The recent patterns suggest it perhaps wouldnt wait around too long. There is savage competition there.
Even so, this is a shortened trading week and action may just be tentative and noncommittal.
Which amounts to holding key supports and biding for time.
On the other hand, the world markets are under stress going in today, and the FII figures are not too pleasing.
One can expect weakness to persist with much volatility.

The other important point to note is timing, and synchronicity of the timing of this rumour induced pullback.
It has followed technical issues to perfection.
Various members at the forum had written on the possibility of such an event, based on Fibonacci considerations etc.

I have been studying time factors in my research, and on Friday morning post it was suggested that the bulls were not going to have an easy day.
Also, 3539 was given as the crucial outer range for the day. We know what the huge gap up opening did. It pushed the Nifty well past this level, but once 3539 could not be held, the fall was sharp. This is clearly seen in the chart from Friday evening.
For me the other important technical issue is that of turning points. Either 3544 or 3561 were suggested as major turning points ahead of this fall. 3544 was covered on Friday with 3561 still untested.
From my experience, turning points have never been easy levels to deal with.
I had very recently mentioned 3425 as another major turning point which had been left behind tucked into a gap. This was the first instance I had seen of this, and a move to cover this level is what I had been waiting for. It may well happen soon.

So where to from now.
To the up, come what may, but to the down what are key levels as supports.

Friday close at 3454.80 is itself holding slightly above two key levels at 3425 and 3442.
3409 and 3393 are further below. 3377 and 3361 come next.
3345 and 3329 at this time appear likely major key supports.

For today supports are 3450-3445-3440-3435-3429-3423-3417-3411-3405-3399-3393-3387. This is as of now.

To the up the line to command at this point is 3458-3462-3466-3470-3473-3476-3479-3482-3485-3488-3491-3494.

 

[AMITBE]

For today supports are 3450-3445-3440-3435-3429-3423-3417-3411-3405-3399-3393-3387. This is as of now.

To the up the line to command at this point is 3458-3462-3466-3470-3473-3476-3479-3482-3485-3488-3491-3494.

If before closing the Nifty could wade into and above 3475-3478 that would be a show of strength. That is above 3478.
At 3474 now.

 

[leemus]

Hi there. I am based in the UK and have been trying to determine why the Indian markets are closed today. Can anyone please tell me why this is and also if there is an Indian calendar out there on the internet that can tell me of any future market closes. I have tried searching but i cannot find anything. Any help would be much appreciated. Many thanks

 

[gvnarendra]

Hi there. I am based in the UK and have been trying to determine why the Indian markets are closed today. Can anyone please tell me why this is and also if there is an Indian calendar out there on the internet that can tell me of any future market closes. I have tried searching but i cannot find anything. Any help would be much appreciated. Many thanks

Go to this link . http://www.nseindia.com/ and click equities, trading, list of holidays. You will find the holiday list.
gvnarendra

 

[leemus]

Thank you very much gvnarendra, much appreciated.

 

[AMITBE]

That was quite a remarkable recovery last session after the sell off Friday.
Part buying pressure and part short covering, whatever it was, it is not going to be easy to bring this bull market to its knees just yet.
Keeping the action well above negative triggers to the down, and close to positive motivators to the up is an established pattern over a period of time and there is no sign of this breaking yet.

Shorting is a part of the game, but in a bull market its a dangerous game.
However, those who dare to bushwhack the Nifty are periodically, if rarely rewarded.
One must desist from this game as far as possible, unless very sure.

Despite the strong close on Monday, this morning again the world markets are under stress from surging crude prices and political developments in Iran.
Manage trades carefully and avoid going short unless very confident.
Thats pretty much it.

The last post on Monday afternoon countdown was to observe where the Nifty would go, if at all, above 3478.
The reason for that was that there was congestion seen above that level.
As it turns out, after wading into the dense territory, the Nifty fell back to close on the nose of 3478.

Nothing has changed on this front going in today.
To the up, the congestion line for the day exists at 3482-3486-3490-3494-3498-3502-3505/06-3510. This is as of now.

There also appears congestion to the down, where the immediate support line is 3477-3474-3471-3468-3465-3462.
Further below is 3459-3456-3453-3450-3447-3444-3441. This is as of now.

 

[AMITBE]

To the up, the congestion line for the day exists at 3482-3486-3490-3494-3498-3502-3505/06-3510. This is as of now.

There also appears congestion to the down, where the immediate support line is 3477-3474-3471-3468-3465-3462.
Further below is 3459-3456-3453-3450-3447-3444-3441. This is as of now.

3441 area has been strong still, and should the weakness persist, below 3441 is 3439-3436-3432-3428-3425.

To the up the crucial line is at 3443-3447-3454-3462-3464.
This is a line of congestion.

 

[AMITBE]

For me the other important technical issue is that of turning points. Either 3544 or 3561 were suggested as major turning points ahead of this fall. 3544 was covered on Friday with 3561 still untested.
From my experience, turning points have never been easy levels to deal with.
I had very recently mentioned 3425 as another major turning point which had been left behind tucked into a gap. This was the first instance I had seen of this, and a move to cover this level is what I had been waiting for. It may well happen soon.

The above quote is from a couple of days ago, and this is a move I've been watching for.
With 2425 tested and covered, an essential condition has been met.
For the rest I'm still on the long side.

3441 area has been strong still, and should the weakness persist, below 3441 is 3439-3436-3432-3428-3425.

To the up the crucial line is at 3443-3447-3454-3462-3464.
This is a line of congestion.

For now the Nifty is still in a congestion area that below 3417 extends to 3412-3408-3404. There's not much support immediately below here.

The following is from the same post as the first quote above:

So where to from now.
To the up, come what may, but to the down what are key levels as supports.

Friday close at 3454.80 is itself holding slightly above two key levels at 3425 and 3442.
3409 and 3393 are further below. 3377 and 3361 come next.
3345 and 3329 at this time appear likely major key supports.

The levels mentioned above can be watched for, depending on how things pan out going ahead.
3409 as mentioned as a key level in the quote directly above has just been tested at 3409.05 and it's held...so far.