Nifty Futures Positional Trading

[sridhar]

Jamit 05

Was on a week long holiday & so missed all the pullback fun.

2 questions:-
1. Where do you get the data that there has been Option writing or Buying by the FIIs? I can see a download link for NSE daily FII derivatives statistics. But this does not give strike price wise breakup.
2. Do you compare option/futures OI & the actual cash market operations to see whether the FIIs are hedging or manipulating the market?

Thanks
Sridhar

 

[sridhar]

Got a partial solution to one problem. Following is the SEBI site that gives daily stats:
http://www.sebi.gov.in/sebiweb/investment/statistics.jsp?s=fii

Need to analyse it properly to make sense.

 

[jamit_05]

Last trade turned up on the flip-side. The Stop Loss was adhered to and the loss was taken to the dot. <Strangely, I take pride even in that

Now, am getting ready to take shorts, which seems to be forming below 5832.70; This will be a powerful fall and I intend to ride it.

 

[jamit_05]

Short Entry precisely at 5785.80; Stop Loss of 42 points. But activated only on Monday.

 

[toocool]

I am also a swing trader in Nifty Futures mainly for 1.5 years or so

I don't get it why are you short in long only markets?

 

[jamit_05]

I am also a swing trader in Nifty Futures mainly for 1.5 years or so

I don't get it why are you short in long only markets?

Not Shorted yet. Will place the order on Monday. And no, I am not hellbent on committing a financial suicide

I see the trend changing to DOWN if I get a fill and if the day closes below my entry price.

I also expect to see at least two of the Gaps filled. These Gaps were caused due to short squeeze. This will take Nifty Spot to 5450, which is around 10x my Stop Loss. In short, I see a great trade at that level.

 

[toocool]

Not Shorted yet. Will place the order on Monday. And no, I am not hellbent on committing a financial suicide

I see the trend changing to DOWN if I get a fill and if the day closes below my entry price.

I also expect to see at least two of the Gaps filled. These Gaps were caused due to short squeeze. This will take Nifty Spot to 5450, which is around 10x my Stop Loss. In short, I see a great trade at that level.

i think trend will change just below 5700 for this move, but if your system/style says so no issues .

but about gap filling , i used to think just like this ,without much solid proof, now i think after almost 4-5 years of trading now i think that gap theory is such a bullshit , only when i changed my perspective about these stupid gaps i started trading normally ,before that it was always a hanging stuck up thought in my mind , that gap will/should/may/could filled .

the problem is ,most of us trade without a mentor (who knows what he is talking about) , we learn from trial and error ,and because of this whenever some stupid book throws something at us we just take it with an open mind (which is not always good) , this gap filling may stuck in your mind like a lice in your head(sorry bad analogy ) and keep irritating you .it will block your objectivity because you have not learnt it the proper way , happens with all of us ,happened with me.

there is no guarantee that this gap will be filled ,not saying that they cannot be filled , but there is always a possibility that they wont , or may be filled after sometime , there are a number of possibility . so one cannot be sure , the main thing is looking at price action and structure of the markets /charts , it will be more beneficial in trading.
there are total 11 gaps in dowjones daily +weekly charts included ,with minimum open gap time of 10 years i think , means latest one when created and never filled was 10 years back , and some are even more than 30-40 years old

 

[DSM]

Great post. Loved every word you said, as it makes clear sense... Even on Nifty/Bank Nifty there will be many gaps... On the upside as well as the downside! Not filled in. Theorie are only probabilities not certainties.

The market has seen a strong upswing, due to RR! The new RBI Governor. He has to lay out his policies, and considering what we have seen uptill now, he may still be able to conjure up a few tricks from his bag... And it can push up the market higher after inducing shorts.

The market cannot move in one direction, and this pause or correction can induce shorts to build up, who can be squeezed out in a blowout rally from the market on ANY good news.

Jamit, have seen many good post from you... Just adding my view - there will be a few market defining days. 20th Sep. is a bit also factored in for now. (Seems the Fed. Will reduce Bond purchase by US 10 Bil $'s) If there is something more or if RR disappoints, the market will turn then, allowing time for the up move to be absorbed - distribution to take place.

While taking joy in being stooped out with a small loss is fine, it should not be death by many small losses.... Death by a thousand cuts.

Good luck.




QUOTE=toocool;861944]i think trend will change just below 5700 for this move, but if your system/style says so no issues .

but about gap filling , i used to think just like this ,without much solid proof, now i think after almost 4-5 years of trading now i think that gap theory is such a bullshit , only when i changed my perspective about these stupid gaps i started trading normally ,before that it was always a hanging stuck up thought in my mind , that gap will/should/may/could filled .

the problem is ,most of us trade without a mentor (who knows what he is talking about) , we learn from trial and error ,and because of this whenever some stupid book throws something at us we just take it with an open mind (which is not always good) , this gap filling may stuck in your mind like a lice in your head(sorry bad analogy ) and keep irritating you .it will block your objectivity because you have not learnt it the proper way , happens with all of us ,happened with me.

there is no guarantee that this gap will be filled ,not saying that they cannot be filled , but there is always a possibility that they wont , or may be filled after sometime , there are a number of possibility . so one cannot be sure , the main thing is looking at price action and structure of the markets /charts , it will be more beneficial in trading.
there are total 11 gaps in dowjones daily +weekly charts included ,with minimum open gap time of 10 years i think , means latest one when created and never filled was 10 years back , and some are even more than 30-40 years old [/QUOTE]

 

[jamit_05]

@DSM: Death by a thousand cuts... nice one.

@toocool: After the entry, all I care for is my SL. As of now, I do not have the means to parameterize the price action that follows. I have tried several combinations but realized that I was trying to define chaos... futile really.

But, generally speaking a trade may result in a shallow Profit, in which case I will continue to hold at a wide trail-stop till SAE is hit. But, if profit goes deep, I will tighten the trail stop and even seek EOD exit at a big bar. Nothing interesting really. In fact, I want to make a conscious effort to make the trading process especially uninteresting (ironic, but important). I have miserably failed in trying to make an "interesting system".

All events, like Gap-fills, have odds. If odds are high, then frequency is low and v.v. And these events are of use only if one can build a system around them. Picking and choosing them as the trade progresses is counter-productive and sometimes suicidal. In short, optimization is for newbs; quite the opposite of what I thought a few years ago.

DSM, toocool... Keep posting nice posts. My thread needs em, I need em.

 

[jamit_05]

Missed Entry by a whisker. But, I would not have taken it as the market had moved over 125 already.

Fresh Short Entry at 5768.15 SL 42 points. It is very close to getting a fill.

Only after EMA 15 is crossed, will I be sure about any profits from this entry. Current EMA15 is at 5680;