Nifty Intraday Pivot Points

[MurAtt]

Market crashed in the last half an hour .. anybody knows what happened today ?? was it DOW futures ?? But they seem to be in green. Then what happened ??

Why Dow futures? Are we that dependent on Dow --
As someone said -- Dow Mow Cow

 

[mogembo]

Why Dow futures? Are we that dependent on Dow --
As someone said -- Dow Mow Cow

Just an assumption because the market experienced first slide at 12:30 which is opening of euro markets then it started coming down at 2:30 mark which is opening of DOW futures but if its not DOW then WHO .. ah.. it didnt rhyme at all.. did it..?? Rizuk bhai.. where are you

 

[enygma]

Some observations

All,

Just wanted to share some observations. There have been lots of questions on how to use the pivot and the R/S levels, so am trying to start with some points

- Generally, the market will get attracted "towards" the pivot. Today, the pivot was 32 points below yesterday's close and further more we had a gap-up. But, still we moved towards the pivot and finally closed much below it. Expect the opposite in case the previous closing is below the next day's calculated pivot - the market will tend to move up.

- Observe if there any levels that a bit far off. (like more than 30 points apart for NF). These trading ranges are good to trade. Like today the pivot and R1 were 44 points apart and breaking of R1 took us down, atleast all the way till S1. And once S1 held up, we got an 30-40 point upmove before the last hour selling. So watch these trading range for possible trades in either direction.

- After a narrow range day, all the R/S levels will be bunched together with hardly 10 point difference between successive levels. The next day, Expect a R7 or a S7 kind of day. Watch out the NR7 thread as well on how these trends evolve.

Standard disclaimers apply - these are based on probabilities and observations and all rules will be broken by the market. But these points can help us in preparing better what to expect and have strategies around them.

Regards,
Enygma.

 

[MurAtt]

Re: Some observations

All,

Just wanted to share some observations. There have been lots of questions on how to use the pivot and the R/S levels, so am trying to start with some points

- Generally, the market will get attracted "towards" the pivot. Today, the pivot was 32 points below yesterday's close and further more we had a gap-up. But, still we moved towards the pivot and finally closed much below it. Expect the opposite in case the previous closing is below the next day's calculated pivot - the market will tend to move up.

- Observe if there any levels that a bit far off. (like more than 30 points apart for NF). These trading ranges are good to trade. Like today the pivot and R1 were 44 points apart and breaking of R1 took us down, atleast all the way till S1. And once S1 held up, we got an 30-40 point upmove before the last hour selling. So watch these trading range for possible trades in either direction.

- After a narrow range day, all the R/S levels will be bunched together with hardly 10 point difference between successive levels. The next day, Expect a R7 or a S7 kind of day. Watch out the NR7 thread as well on how these trends evolve.

Standard disclaimers apply - these are based on probabilities and observations and all rules will be broken by the market. But these points can help us in preparing better what to expect and have strategies around them.

Regards,
Enygma.

Cool dude ... more pointers needed --
esp for those who fear the sharp rises and the falls .....

:thumb:

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Mogembo,

After Todays Move, I Have Noticed A Different Strategy Being Adopted From Monday Where The Market Tanked...Continued Till Yesterday...Only To Be Pulled Into Green In The Last Stages Of Close....That Sort Of Completed A Cycle Of profit Taking For The Big Boys.

Perhaps Today Was Beginning Of Another Cycle Like Monday & Thursday Might Again End Up Like Tuesday.

Big Boys Have been Trying To Get The Small Boys On The Opposite Side Of Their Trade..But Wasn't Really Happening As A Result Less Profit For The Big Boys....Expect This Strategy A Few More Times....Till It Small Boys Latch On To It....

Have Mentioned....This Before Expect This Month To be Volatile With Big Range Play.

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

Just an assumption because the market experienced first slide at 12:30 which is opening of euro markets then it started coming down at 2:30 mark which is opening of DOW futures but if its not DOW then WHO .. ah.. it didnt rhyme at all.. did it..?? Rizuk bhai.. where are you

 

[padhugvn]

little bit confused ji

so tomorrow gapup or gapdown ah?

or

market may slide for few days ah

 

[MurAtt]

[B]PUTS[/B]
06-Oct-09		07-Oct-09			
OI	Strike		OI	Strike		% Chng	Result
872550	5100		1098800	5100		125.9	Bullish
3685750	5000		3379350	5000		91.7	Bearish
6418300	4900		6215200	4900		96.8	Bearish
4419850	4800		4168350	4800		94.3	Bearish
5248000	4700		6030450	4700		114.9	Bullish
2396400	4600		2560800	4600		106.8	Bullish
2301600	4500		2452850	4500		106.5	Bullish
2082700	4400		2259950	4400		108.5	Bullish
1325350	4300		1497800	4300		113.0	Bullish
1306700	4200		1422000	4200		108.8	Bullish
30057200		31085550			
							
[B]CALLS[/B]							
06-Oct-09		07-Oct-09			
OI	Strike		OI	Strike		% Chng	Result
557350	5600		621550	5600		111.5	Bearish
1022300	5500		1093450	5500		107.0	Bearish
1394750	5400		1555150	5400		111.5	Bearish
4230800	5300		4284500	5300		101.3	Bearish
3571900	5200		3959600	5200		110.8	Bearish
3631800	5100		4995950	5100		137.6	Bearish
3354750	5000		4173500	5000		124.4	Bearish
1946400	4900		2013950	4900		103.5	Bearish
915050	4800		210300	5000 Mar-09	
190000	5000 Dec-12	412050	5000 Nov-09	
20815100		23320000

Overall PE OI is reducing i.e. the ATM ones 5000, 4900, 4800
AND
CE OI is increasing that too ATM 4900, 5000 and higher

So a slight dip is expected to y'day's LOD or ...
Then we may review the situation next .....

SG yr comments on this please ....

 

[enygma]

Essentially two typical trading days of September era are getting compressed into one trading day this month and the exchanges clock more turnover as well

Hi Mogembo,

After Todays Move, I Have Noticed A Different Strategy Being Adopted From Monday Where The Market Tanked...Continued Till Yesterday...Only To Be Pulled Into Green In The Last Stages Of Close....That Sort Of Completed A Cycle Of profit Taking For The Big Boys.

Perhaps Today Was Beginning Of Another Cycle Like Monday & Thursday Might Again End Up Like Tuesday.

Big Boys Have been Trying To Get The Small Boys On The Opposite Side Of Their Trade..But Wasn't Really Happening As A Result Less Profit For The Big Boys....Expect This Strategy A Few More Times....Till It Small Boys Latch On To It....

Have Mentioned....This Before Expect This Month To be Volatile With Big Range Play.

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

 

[amitroy75]

Hi Mogembo,

After Todays Move, I Have Noticed A Different Strategy Being Adopted From Monday Where The Market Tanked...Continued Till Yesterday...Only To Be Pulled Into Green In The Last Stages Of Close....That Sort Of Completed A Cycle Of profit Taking For The Big Boys.

Perhaps Today Was Beginning Of Another Cycle Like Monday & Thursday Might Again End Up Like Tuesday.

Big Boys Have been Trying To Get The Small Boys On The Opposite Side Of Their Trade..But Wasn't Really Happening As A Result Less Profit For The Big Boys....Expect This Strategy A Few More Times....Till It Small Boys Latch On To It....

Have Mentioned....This Before Expect This Month To be Volatile With Big Range Play.

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

Must say that a completely different perspective and a more relevant one of whats going in the market.....bored of all the crap that the business channels dish out

keep up the good work sir:thumb:

regards

amit

 

[vanram]

Volatile With Big Range Play.

Expecting a range of 4600-5400, initiated a long strangle of 4700PE & 5300 CE
@68 Rs. on 06/10/2009.

any suggestions on exit.? shall I rebalance @ 4800/5200 or wait for 4650/5350?

Hi Mogembo,

After Todays Move, I Have Noticed A Different Strategy Being Adopted From Monday Where The Market Tanked...Continued Till Yesterday...Only To Be Pulled Into Green In The Last Stages Of Close....That Sort Of Completed A Cycle Of profit Taking For The Big Boys.

Perhaps Today Was Beginning Of Another Cycle Like Monday & Thursday Might Again End Up Like Tuesday.

Big Boys Have been Trying To Get The Small Boys On The Opposite Side Of Their Trade..But Wasn't Really Happening As A Result Less Profit For The Big Boys....Expect This Strategy A Few More Times....Till It Small Boys Latch On To It....

Have Mentioned....This Before Expect This Month To be Volatile With Big Range Play.

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde