NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[healthraj]

Hi Raj,

Will you provide new excel file for sept series or can I update on my own current OAT file? Please describe how to do that?

Regards.

Starting from tomorrow the tool will automatically choose the September Series. You can anyway now also see the data for Sep-13 and Oct013 also. You can choose the Expiry in the cell C6. by default the current month will be chosen

 

[healthraj]

It has been SPRINT from 5100 to 5400 - 300 points movement without any major downward correction. So you can expect minimum 120 point correction in the coming days. So play with Caution on Longs above 5418. The OAT tool is now showing the TOP as 5418. Moved from 5404 to 5418.

But as a note of caution in the SEP-13 series, the MAX OI is still at 5300-5500. So it might also test 5500 before taking further movement.

But I am only indicating a 250-300 point movement and associated correction. So this is only for positions traders who can take the positional risk.

 

[anup0212]

It has been SPRINT from 5100 to 5400 - 300 points movement without any major downward correction. So you can expect minimum 120 point correction in the coming days. So play with Caution on Longs above 5418. The OAT tool is now showing the TOP as 5418. Moved from 5404 to 5418.

But as a note of caution in the SEP-13 series, the MAX OI is still at 5300-5500. So it might also test 5500 before taking further movement.

But I am only indicating a 250-300 point movement and associated correction. So this is only for positions traders who can take the positional risk.

Hi Raj,
Excellent prediction of NF lvl reached 5411...

 

[healthraj]

Finally Closed AUG-13 5400CE at 14.5. Bought @ 11. 3.5 points profit. All thanks to MAX Pain @ 5400, which worked. Long live the who discovered MAX Pain theory. I have not included the Averaging that I did when it was down to 2 or 3

 

[healthraj]

Starting from tomorrow we will start the SEP-13 Series.

SEP-13 and AUG-13 Options trading has been completely in contrast. In AUG-13 Credit spreads gave money. In SEP-13 Debit spreads would have given profit mainly due to one factor VOLT.

Starting from SEP-13, the contracts will have 50 point positions.

so we will have contracts for 5400, 5450, 5500 etc...

One advantage would be that this will reduce speculation and so reduce the Volatility and so it should help the Credit Spreads. But I have noticed one thing like in BANKNIFTY options, not all strikes get filled. If it happens in NIFTY, in the OAT tool
- Goto sheet SOData
- In the cells BA2:BA22, please remove NIFTY from the list so that even though NIFTY contact has 50 points, we will consider 100 points. This logic is built in the OAT tool.

Those who are using the OAT tool, Please also provide your feedback and comments on the usage of the tool in the month of AUG-13, so that we can look ways to improve the tool. Whoever is using the OAT tool, Please click on the Thanks button for this post. I have seen some 250+ downloads so far of the OAT tool

 

[niftytaurus]

Hi
I have a question ..though a stupid question...last candle of day closed at 5380...then after 5 min,at 3:35, nifty quoting shows 5409....
i understand they consider price that only...but quite 29 points up at that time when retail customer are nt allowed to participate

 

[healthraj]

Rule 8: Respect the Strike Price where the MAX Pain is situated

The Strike where the MAX Pain is like the Centre of Gravity. So especially during the Expiry the market will try to move and will try to expire around the MAX Pain. So in the last week of expiry one should avoid any OTM call around the MAX Pain because the OTM calls around the MAX Pain will expire worthless.

For Example in Jul13 Expiry the MAX Pain on 22-Jul-13 is at 6000. So any 6100, 6200,... Calls will expire at Zero value. Similarly for 5900PE, 5800Pe, etc,,,

So we will have another addendum to the Rule 8 based on the Experience in AUG-13 Series.

RULE 8A: Positional Trade with respect to MAX Pain.

Whenever the stock / index is away from the MAX Pain by say 5% (Applicable for Index. Need to validate this % for Stocks.). Take a positional call on the MAX Pain strike.

For example let us say the MAX Pain is at 5500 for NIFTY.

If market is now at 5250, which is 5% away from 5500, then Buy 5400CE and keep it till 5500 is reached.

If market is now at 5750, which is 5% away from 5500, then Buy 5600PE and keep it till 5500 is reached.

 

[healthraj]

Hi
I have a question ..though a stupid question...last candle of day closed at 5380...then after 5 min,at 3:35, nifty quoting shows 5409....
i understand they consider price that only...but quite 29 points up at that time when retail customer are nt allowed to participate

After the OAT tool, I do not see candle charts. Fro Levels I use my MTP RENKO charts, Which I have now merged with the OAT tool. So I use only Excel. Can anybody answer this technical question.

But I can see that NIFTY spot closed at 5409.1 - In the OAT tool, the cell G13.

 

[Option.Trader]

Starting from tomorrow we will start the SEP-13 Series.

SEP-13 and AUG-13 Options trading has been completely in contrast. In AUG-13 Credit spreads gave money. In SEP-13 Debit spreads would have given profit mainly due to one factor VOLT.

Starting from SEP-13, the contracts will have 50 point positions.

so we will have contracts for 5400, 5450, 5500 etc...

One advantage would be that this will reduce speculation and so reduce the Volatility and so it should help the Credit Spreads. But I have noticed one thing like in BANKNIFTY options, not all strikes get filled. If it happens in NIFTY, in the OAT tool
- Goto sheet SOData
- In the cells BA2:BA22, please remove NIFTY from the list so that even though NIFTY contact has 50 points, we will consider 100 points. This logic is built in the OAT tool.

Those who are using the OAT tool, Please also provide your feedback and comments on the usage of the tool in the month of AUG-13, so that we can look ways to improve the tool. Whoever is using the OAT tool, Please click on the Thanks button for this post. I have seen some 250+ downloads so far of the OAT tool

This is an amazing tool to analyze options. Made the picture that much clear.
Some add on's
- further data on Max pain either via commentary (as in mtp tool ) esp when it changes so that we can be ready with trade
- pivots from mtp
- any way of combining with fii data or TA ?
- Linkon had a way of choosing among options to trade, I'll try and locate the post if we could automate
this is a big wish list, I'm happy just trading with your commentary instead as will everyone else :beer:

 

[arcus]

Hi
I have a question ..though a stupid question...last candle of day closed at 5380...then after 5 min,at 3:35, nifty quoting shows 5409....
i understand they consider price that only...but quite 29 points up at that time when retail customer are nt allowed to participate

The price you see at 3:30 PM is called the last traded price.

The price you see around 3:35 is called the closing price. It takes the last half hour of trade in the scrip/index into consideration. Its actually the weighted average of the last half an hour of trade.

This is done by the exchanges to avoid manipulation of the closing price.

If it makes 5400 today, I have seen all the Media channels telling that we will see 4900 soon, which would be 500 points away from 4900. So try and take a small risk and buy 5000 PE after the market settles down.

If we base our trading decisions on what the media says, we will soon go bankrupt.