NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[arcus]

Look at the 5450 PE, its completely mispriced

 

[Vikas Korde]

Raj sir
by removing the nifty from ba2:ba22 there is no change in option stock range .and also no change in the value of ak20,al20,am20 also al20:al27 so how can change it to 100 to 50 option value range
plz guide

 

[arcus]

Interesting, by the looks of it, shorting @ 5409 would be ideal. I would think that as per OAT, it would revisit 5500 before resuming downward and break the channel. Also need to look at volatility when/if Nifty reaches 5500, if it's still above 26, then it's a clear sign to go down

I dont advise just to trade based on channels.

On one hand, there is a lot of positive divergence on the MACD and RSI but on the other we are in an intermediate downtrend.

So I expect this series to be choppy.

I am very likely not going to trade this series.

Once the indicators, charts, fundamentals and the trend are aligned (like what happened in August), that is when I think the best opportunities lie.

 

[healthraj]

Raj sir
by removing the nifty from ba2:ba22 there is no change in option stock range .and also no change in the value of ak20,al20,am20 also al20:al27 so how can change it to 100 to 50 option value range
plz guide

It is working for me. If I include NIFTY I am able to see the strikes as 5300, 5350, 5400, 5450,... with MAX Pain at 5400.

If I remove NIFTY from the list, I am getting 5100, 5200, 5300, etc... With MAX Pain at 5500.

 

[healthraj]

Starting from tomorrow we will start the SEP-13 Series.

SEP-13 and AUG-13 Options trading has been completely in contrast. In AUG-13 Credit spreads gave money. In SEP-13 Debit spreads would have given profit mainly due to one factor VOLT.

Starting from SEP-13, the contracts will have 50 point positions.

so we will have contracts for 5400, 5450, 5500 etc...

One advantage would be that this will reduce speculation and so reduce the Volatility and so it should help the Credit Spreads. But I have noticed one thing like in BANKNIFTY options, not all strikes get filled. If it happens in NIFTY, in the OAT tool
- Goto sheet SOData
- In the cells BA2:BA22, please remove NIFTY from the list so that even though NIFTY contact has 50 points, we will consider 100 points. This logic is built in the OAT tool.

Those who are using the OAT tool, Please also provide your feedback and comments on the usage of the tool in the month of AUG-13, so that we can look ways to improve the tool. Whoever is using the OAT tool, Please click on the Thanks button for this post. I have seen some 250+ downloads so far of the OAT tool

As told you yesterday, you can see that the XX50 strikes are not traded or there is no volume. So you can avoid those strikes for sometime until you see the right volume in all the strikes.

So remove NIFTY from the "BA2:BA22" cellsin in the SOData sheet.

 

[Option.Trader]

It is working for me. If I include NIFTY I am able to see the strikes as 5300, 5350, 5400, 5450,... with MAX Pain at 5400.

If I remove NIFTY from the list, I am getting 5100, 5200, 5300, etc... With MAX Pain at 5500.

Its working here.. i think the user got confused with removing it.. Nifty has to be mentioned in the list to be able to get intermediate levels

Here;s the output
So Raj, with Max pain at 5400, and changing from yesterday of 5500, do you think the probability of it drifting down is more than up??

 

[Vikas Korde]

It is working for me. If I include NIFTY I am able to see the strikes as 5300, 5350, 5400, 5450,... with MAX Pain at 5400.

If I remove NIFTY from the list, I am getting 5100, 5200, 5300, etc... With MAX Pain at 5500.

If we remove the nifty from BA2 : BA 22 then we get strike price as 5100,5200 means of difference between them 100 .
And if remove then we get 5100,5150,5200,5250 means difference between them is 50 then which will we use

 

[healthraj]

Its working here.. i think the user got confused with removing it.. Nifty has to be mentioned in the list to be able to get intermediate levels

Here;s the output
So Raj, with Max pain at 5400, and changing from yesterday of 5500, do you think the probability of it drifting down is more than up??

OT,

The problems is that the XX50 strikes does not have the right volume and OI. So we will ignore the XX50 strikes. That way the MAX Pain is at 5500. In SEP-13 series, Yesterday also the MAX Pain was at 5500. See my posts for the previous week. Even when the AUG-13 MAX Pain was at 5300, SEP-13 MAX Pain was at 5500.

 

[sabhlok_r]

OT,

The problems is that the XX50 strikes does not have the right volume and OI. So we will ignore the XX50 strikes. That way the MAX Pain is at 5500. In SEP-13 series, Yesterday also the MAX Pain was at 5500. See my posts for the previous week. Even when the AUG-13 MAX Pain was at 5300, SEP-13 MAX Pain was at 5500.

Raj....shall buy puts in 5480-5500 range.

 

[healthraj]

Market is once again at the same place where we took the strategy last time. the only thing is that the VOLT is high now. So those who want to play the 250 points once again can trade

5600 CE @ 41 in SEP-13 series
4700 PE @ 42 in SEP-13 series

Once again play with caution because next month the VOLT will not be high. The market can also be rangebound.

We will exit if one of the positions become 3 times the premium.

The 5600CE-4700PE Debit spread that we took at 83 is now at 94.65. With 11.5 points profit. The VOLT has dropped. So The PE Price has dropped significantly. But the CE Price has not gone up in proportion. We took the position when the market was around 5280. Close the 50% of spread when the market is between 5480-5525. This UP Trend will surely test 5570. And close the rest around 5570 since the MAX CE OI is at 5600