NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[toocool]

Good morning. The market proved us Wrong once again. I think most were expecting the market to go down. So my naked positions would be gone for a toss. But my risky mind told me to go for a Safe trade with Debit Spreads. So When the market opens I will close my call and buy some Puts in OCT-13 Series. And Leave the Puts as is. Bought my CE positions at around 5850. And bought the Puts around 5900. So if the market opens at 6100 it would be 250 points move for the call, which should give a reward of 3 times, which should be enough. We have to see where the MAX Pain moves. If it remains at 5700, then we might see a downward movement tomorrow or before expiry.

I don't know what is wrong with your excel sheet, but MAX PAIN was already 5800 yesterday i downloaded from your link only, and I am 100% sure about this

 

[rnmathur4965]

Here it goes for whatever its worth

Sept 18th FII Activity
Cant believe they have gone into the event being so positive.. Net long in futures from a long time and today's trade, they have looked at shorting Put aggressively - 5900PE??

Hi Sir,

Can you please provide link to this sheet.

Regards

 

[healthraj]

I don't know what is wrong with your excel sheet, but MAX PAIN was already 5800 yesterday i downloaded from your link only, and I am 100% sure about this

May be you have not configured to not include the XX50 strikes. XX50 strikes was introduced in this month in the NIFTY Options. But the volume XX50 strikes is negligible compared to the XX00 strikes. So you can make the tool ignore the XX50 strikes by removing "NIFTY" in the hidden sheet "SODATA" in the cells BA2:BA22.

 

[Option.Trader]

Nifty to open at 6100

My position
5600 pe @28
6100 ce @28
Size is immaterial as it is equal
Strategy, if it goes down drastically, I will immediately come out of puts and hold the calls till 20th. Otherwise come out of puts and hold half of calls. Stop loss of 20 points for the pair. RR 1:2

Done, holding half for tomorrow's event. On hindsight, it was a good strategy because of various factors which gave the trade.
- vix supported with reasonable range
- FII were net long the whole time
-unlike infy result the option vix was not totally whacked out to think of selling strangle
Feels good when all things fall into place and I hope I don't have to explain the reason why I still track FII data :-D

 

[prabhsingh]

Does has anybody thinks Market can be shorted from 6118-6120 levels?

 

[healthraj]

Trading for the RBI Policy Event.

As we have tracked the INDIAVIX, for the Fed Policy, you must have seen that the INDIAVIX has broken from the range 26-31 and now around 24 - 12% drop, which has also affected the Premiums in our Debit spreads. However we were still able to make 2 times the premium this morning.

Now two things can happen. INDIAVIX can go down further and go to the normal NIFTY levels of 20-22, which was also HISTORIC VOLT of NIFTY before the SELL off from 6100.

So those who want to play the Debit Spreads need to be careful because there is not much VOLT. However since the VOLT is low, it is still safe to do Debit Spreads (hoping the VOLT go higher).

Coming to RBI Policy, Buy the Debit Spreads pairs between 6120-6150 Levels. The OAT Tool should be already indicating a Postional Sell between 6106-6054 because the OAT tool takes the MAX Pain which is at 5800 can calculates 5% from 5800 to suggest a SELL call.

Since the Policy is announced only after 11 AM tomorrow, you can take positions around 10:30 AM tomorrow. But tomorrow at 10:30 AM the VOLT could be high and you would be paying a higher premium. So decide accordingly.

Do not go for DEEEEEEP OTM Calls and Puts because there are only five days to expiry. I would suggest Buy 6300CE and 5900 PE both available around 20 now. so that we also do not take much risk.

As per the General opinion the RBI Policy is expected to be FLAT.

 

[Option.Trader]

Trading for the RBI Policy Event.

As we have tracked the INDIAVIX, for the Fed Policy, you must have seen that the INDIAVIX has broken from the range 26-31 and now around 24 - 12% drop, which has also affected the Premiums in our Debit spreads. However we were still able to make 2 times the premium this morning.

Now two things can happen. INDIAVIX can go down further and go to the normal NIFTY levels of 20-22, which was also HISTORIC VOLT of NIFTY before the SELL off from 6100.

So those who want to play the Debit Spreads need to be careful because there is not much VOLT. However since the VOLT is low, it is still safe to do Debit Spreads (hoping the VOLT go higher).

Coming to RBI Policy, Buy the Debit Spreads pairs between 6120-6150 Levels. The OAT Tool should be already indicating a Postional Sell between 6106-6054 because the OAT tool takes the MAX Pain which is at 5800 can calculates 5% from 5800 to suggest a SELL call.

Since the Policy is announced only after 11 AM tomorrow, you can take positions around 10:30 AM tomorrow. But tomorrow at 10:30 AM the VOLT could be high and you would be paying a higher premium. So decide accordingly.

Do not go for DEEEEEEP OTM Calls and Puts because there are only five days to expiry. I would suggest Buy 6300CE and 5900 PE both available around 20 now. so that we also do not take much risk.

As per the General opinion the RBI Policy is expected to be FLAT.

RBI now does not have to bring out a blockbuster policy to keep the sentiments high... so it may turn out to be a nonevent after all...dont know if Mr Rajan would do a Ben on us.. BTW Max pain shows as 5900 for me now..

 

[healthraj]

The MAX Pain changed from 5800 to 5900 at 2:00 PM. So I am not sure if we can expect anything Down in this Series. Or May be market will make another 100 points UP before correcting. So take your Debit spreads or Short positions at 240 points from 5900+240 = Around 6140-6190

Less risky can Trade in OCT-13 series. You will not get much movement and profit but at least you will have some breathing space

 

[anup0212]

Trading for the RBI Policy Event.

As we have tracked the INDIAVIX, for the Fed Policy, you must have seen that the INDIAVIX has broken from the range 26-31 and now around 24 - 12% drop, which has also affected the Premiums in our Debit spreads. However we were still able to make 2 times the premium this morning.

Now two things can happen. INDIAVIX can go down further and go to the normal NIFTY levels of 20-22, which was also HISTORIC VOLT of NIFTY before the SELL off from 6100.

So those who want to play the Debit Spreads need to be careful because there is not much VOLT. However since the VOLT is low, it is still safe to do Debit Spreads (hoping the VOLT go higher).

Coming to RBI Policy, Buy the Debit Spreads pairs between 6120-6150 Levels. The OAT Tool should be already indicating a Postional Sell between 6106-6054 because the OAT tool takes the MAX Pain which is at 5800 can calculates 5% from 5800 to suggest a SELL call.

Since the Policy is announced only after 11 AM tomorrow, you can take positions around 10:30 AM tomorrow. But tomorrow at 10:30 AM the VOLT could be high and you would be paying a higher premium. So decide accordingly.

Do not go for DEEEEEEP OTM Calls and Puts because there are only five days to expiry. I would suggest Buy 6300CE and 5900 PE both available around 20 now. so that we also do not take much risk.

As per the General opinion the RBI Policy is expected to be FLAT.

Hi raj, i took the pair again at total premium of is 42..6300 at 26 and 5900 pe at 16 so let see what happens tomorrow...shall i close this tomorrow..or wait for any side movement?..thanks -Anoop

 

[healthraj]

The MAX Pain changed from 5800 to 5900 at 2:00 PM. So I am not sure if we can expect anything Down in this Series. Or May be market will make another 100 points UP before correcting. So take your Debit spreads or Short positions at 240 points from 5900+240 = Around 6140-6190

Less risky can Trade in OCT-13 series. You will not get much movement and profit but at least you will have some breathing space

I don't know if it would be like last month.

The MAX Pain was initially 5500. then it moved to 5400 to 5300 to 5200. then back to 5300 to 5400 and finally the market expired at 5400.

For most the time, For This month, the MAX Pain was at 5700 then it shifted to 5800 today and now to 5900. So I think we can expect the expiry between 5700 and 5900.

You might also have noticed the Positional SELL Call between 6208 and 6156 When market was trading above 6156 since the MAX Pain is at 5900