NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[doctorshah]

Rather then disturbing, your analysis has added whole new dimension of TA so please continue posting

 

[healthraj]

Thought of posting the chart before RBI which should be a non-event.I promise this to be the last on FII Analysis, wont disturb after this

FII positioning for RBI 19-9-2013

They have finally gone bonkers... largest buy position in Index futures after Sept 10 and we know what happened then.. Also looks like they have aggressively shorted 6000 and 6100 PE and unwound 5900, 6000 CE that they had written. Are they knowing something that we dont??
As usual, Retail lead themselves to the sacrificial altar... they have massively gone short which should lead to a mini rally after open.. Everyone has this theory of playing contra especially after a 150 point move.. i dunno why

Here goes the last post of the month for whatever its worth

Whatever goes UP needs to GO Down. Even in AUG-13 when it came down from 6100, there was lot of opportunities for both Bulls and Bears. But the SEP-13 is one sided. So the BEARS are definitely waiting patiently for a Revenge.

My feeling on 6000PE and 6100PE shorting is that, when the market is around 6200, they will Reverse the positions from Short to Buy.

Yes in a single day creating 20L positions in 6000PE and 6100PE is crazy. I see some kind of a rush. The reason why I didn't believe this is a True Rally is because of this urgency. Anyway whatever excuse we tell most of us missed on the 1000 point rally from 5100 to 6100 which we will get only once in 5 Years. So we have to wait another 5 years for this kind of opportunity

Forgot to mention one important thing. the MAX OI has shifted from 5300-6000 to 5300-6200. So 6200 will be tested tomorrow

OT, And who said you are disturbing by posting your FII analysis ? Please continue.

 

[Option.Trader]

Thanks for your support guys...I have to admit, I admire Raj a lot. We have had conversations for quite some time and I remember when i started looking at Options and struggling to make sense of it, requesting Raj to take a look at options table. Well to our luck, he not only looked but totally bought a whole new dimension and to tell the truth there are very few people, actually gifted, who can take exploring to such a new level. And all of us are benefited by learning things that much clearer, money will follow, passion is important.

So I wouldn't like to disturb the flow with having to explain to a few skeptics about the analysis i'm looking at. Explanation/arguing is welcome, but when the intent is to just argue without logic, that really ticks me off. So without further ado, the intention is to keep the thread clean , as they say lot of emotions lead to loose motions.

I think we are close to uncovering the behavior of a million people thru this options table, and we are all to benefit on this journey with Raj.. and thats all that matters. As for FII , I will continue to track and keep posting before imp events to just understand the mood of the masses

 

[timepass]

So I wouldn't like to disturb the flow with having to explain to a few skeptics about the analysis i'm looking at. Explanation/arguing is welcome, but when the intent is to just argue without logic, that really ticks me off. So without further ado, the intention is to keep the thread clean , as they say lot of emotions lead to loose motions.

There is a read-only section on TJ, where only the thread starter can post. No one else can post replies. Maybe you should start a thread there, or request the moderators to move your thread to that section.

It will be a pleasure to read your daily analysis.

Click here for the read-only forum


http://www.traderji.com/members-discussion-forums/The

 

[Option.Trader]

There is a read-only section on TJ, where only the thread starter can post. No one else can post replies. Maybe you should start a thread there, or request the moderators to move your thread to that section.

It will be a pleasure to read your daily analysis.

Click here for the read-only forum


http://www.traderji.com/members-discussion-forums/The

No no, I'm just too small to start a sermon. 90% of discussions lead to better understanding, like Dan's or Arcus probing questions. They are always welcome. All izz well. So let's concentrate on making money.
Didn't realise that most of delivery based buying of 4000cr came in select stocks and a large part on banking sector. So it's the moneybags driving for now. So far not seen signs of getting of the ride yet. Expiry may take lot of people by surprise

 

[healthraj]

Trading Today for the RBI Policy Event.

Normally in such days, it is better to Wait till 11 AM and take the positions because till 11 AM it would be very volatile.

Keep an eye on VIX. VIX has hit the lower part of the channel and going UP, indicating a SELL.

As per the MAX OI, the market could test 6200. I am not sure whether it will test today because yesterday it made a high of around 6170.

As per the MAX Pain theory and the positional call of 240 points, there was an opportunity Yesterday to Sell between 6150 and 6200. Try and sell around the same level. It is better to take your positions around 10:45:10:55.

For those who want to Trade Debit spreads, can buy 6300CE and 5900PE for a combined premium of 35.

 

[adg123]

I am buying Naked PE6100 @Rs. 60/- 2 lots - Now at Rs. 57/- . What to do...?

 

[healthraj]

I am buying Naked PE6100 @Rs. 60/- 2 lots - Now at Rs. 57/- . What to do...?

I would suggest to Buy in OCT-13 series if you are buying naked Puts so that you can make more profit and you will also have more days to cover. Since the OCT-13 MAX OI is at 5300-5800. You can either Buy 5500 PE or if you want to buy at low premium go for 5300PE. Buy your puts around 6150-6180

 

[healthraj]

I don't know if it would be like last month.

The MAX Pain was initially 5500. then it moved to 5400 to 5300 to 5200. then back to 5300 to 5400 and finally the market expired at 5400.

For most the time, For This month, the MAX Pain was at 5700 then it shifted to 5800 today and now to 5900. So I think we can expect the expiry between 5700 and 5900.
You might also have noticed the Positional SELL Call between 6208 and 6156 When market was trading above 6156 since the MAX Pain is at 5900

As told above the MAX Pain has shifted once again to 5800 from 5900. A Sign of weakness. Since the MAX Pain has moved from 5900 to 5800, The positional SELL call is also triggered between 6055-6107.

 

[healthraj]

As told above the MAX Pain has shifted once again to 5800 from 5900. A Sign of weakness. Since the MAX Pain has moved from 5900 to 5800, The positional SELL call is also triggered between 6055-6107.

Please ignore the above message... I was looking at the MAX Pain of OCT-13 series. The MAX Pain for SEP-13 still at 5900