Open letter to all Bears !

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

Respected sir,
i am tracking ur posts since last 7 months, never saw u in this form.
i respect u very much, so its my request to u plz calm as u r famous fr ur geninuity, knowledge, HUMBLENESS like saint, ashish, renu........ u r nt frm those traders who hv time to throw pebbles, u r frm those who help other to learn, to teach, to guide, so cm on once again, be ready once again, and show ur old formmmmmmmmmm
sorry once again if i hv written beyond my limits
Regards,
your old silent admirer

yes anju, i have taken your words in the right spirit... i regret my message was not taken that way

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

http://www.traderji.com/162011-post16.html
sorry cactus , i just saw that your earlier message was posted in lighter vein....my intention was not to hurt anyone but just to convey what i thought ..... thats all .

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

http://www.traderji.com/162149-post28.html

Srinivas , i have no regrets even if according to you sensex goes to 7500 or 75.. all i want is a chart or a acceptable logic that supports your claim....

 

[Cactus]

forget the bitter bite,
Its all right.
to run, always keep ur shoes tite........
always be cheerful & delight.

http://www.traderji.com/162011-post16.html
sorry cactus , i just saw that your earlier message was posted in lighter vein....my intention was not to hurt anyone but just to convey what i thought ..... thats all .

 

[Khokan]

Cactus,
U r spot on!.
Pal

 

[Prabhjeet]

Between 14 May 2004 to 16 July 2004. You obviously were not around during the sensex crash on 17th may 04 when the UPA took over and the left party started talking crap about communism, end of disinvestment and death sentence to stock market speculators (ok, this one is a bit stretched, but would have probably gone to that extent) etc?

First of all plz tell me the basis of your wild and weird guess that i was not around in 2004

You will also notice that a close below the 50 week MA marked the end of the decline in 2004, and several instances in the past. So your hypothesis about "a fall below 50week MA by more than 1% having predictive power" is invalid.

Your reply is self explainatory, close above 50 week EMA had started the bull market and not a close below 50 week EMA had ended the bear run or decline as you mentioned. I hope you understand how we work with MAs, we dont turn bullish after prices close below MA but wait for confirmatory close above MA to turn bullish.

I do not understand one point. Why is it that people talk about a decline as if it is the end of the world?

No decline is not the end of world, but its like a turn on a highway. If after driving in straight direction for 300 km on a highway you find a T- junction do you take a turn or drive straight into the barrier. Its the same condition here, indicators have turned bearish rt. now so we do not attempt a buy at this level but either wait on sidelines or decide to go short until the indicators are bullish again




And BTW if anyone finds this post harsh then let me tell you that i was trying to be harsh. Of late some of the senior members have started acting like they are the big bosses of market and they can bully others around them. Traderji is no more a forum where we used to have logical discussions, nowadays its like if you dont like my views, i will throw dung on your face.

Its high time that traderji started noticing such things, i have written such a post only after bearing many rude replies from this OXY guy and i am not in any mood to take any further rudeness from such people

 

[oxusmorouz]

First of all plz tell me the basis of your wild and weird guess that i was not around in 2004

Isn't it obvious from your supply of poor data? Also, can you not differentiate between a question and an answer?

Your reply is self explainatory, close above 50 week EMA had started the bull market and not a close below 50 week EMA had ended the bear run or decline as you mentioned. I hope you understand how we work with MAs, we dont turn bullish after prices close below MA but wait for confirmatory close above MA to turn bullish.

I fail to understand why this moving average is viewed as a tool with predictive ability. Also, I have not heard of anyone who made money in the long run trading moving average crossovers (Care to contradict? The dow data is open to see).
In the last 40years, had someone employed a strategy to buy when close > 50 week moving average and sell when C < moving average, he would have lost flat 9600 points in the Dow. In the nifty, in the last 14years, it has underperformed buy-hold by about 500 points.

No, I do not understand how you work with MAs. Please detail how?

No decline is not the end of world, but its like a turn on a highway. If after driving in straight direction for 300 km on a highway you find a T- junction do you take a turn or drive straight into the barrier. Its the same condition here, indicators have turned bearish rt. now so we do not attempt a buy at this level but either wait on sidelines or decide to go short until the indicators are bullish again

I am open to see data of your indicators turning bullish and bearish and outperforming the buy-hold along the way, in the indices, for a reasonable period.

And BTW if anyone finds this post harsh then let me tell you that i was trying to be harsh. Of late some of the senior members have started acting like they are the big bosses of market and they can bully others around them. Traderji is no more a forum where we used to have logical discussions, nowadays its like if you dont like my views, i will throw dung on your face.

Logical discussions? Moving average crossovers?
You surely do not mean by conversation with Hariomkar over cricket and football? That falls under a different head, where the answer is pretty much subjective and the arguments are won mostly via mind games. I'm sure Hari realized that and I do. The case is over, I'm certain we have nothing "personal" against each other.
Trading falls under an entirely different catagory, and it is a capital mistake to theorize without data in trading (It costs money)!

Its high time that traderji started noticing such things, i have written such a post only after bearing many rude replies from this OXY guy and i am not in any mood to take any further rudeness from such people

What am I supposed to do if you do not back up your post with data?

A shining example:
http://www.traderji.com/153594-post58.html

Oh and just to say, this is not a place to take out your personal vengeance against me for my skepticism in your analysis. I am not rude to you, I am rude to your methods!

 

[Prabhjeet]

I fail to understand why this moving average is viewed as a tool with predictive ability. Also, I have not heard of anyone who made money in the long run trading moving average crossovers (Care to contradict? The dow data is open to see).
In the last 40years, had someone employed a strategy to buy when close > 50 week moving average and sell when C < moving average, he would have lost flat 9600 points in the Dow. In the nifty, in the last 14years, it has underperformed buy-hold by about 500 points.

No, I do not understand how you work with MAs. Please detail how?

Moving average does not proclaim to be a god of the market but is a obedient follower. The thing with the indicators is that they cant come out of you computer and shout at you that use me now and dont use me now. Moving average works well with trending market which we are now in and its useless when we are in a ranged markets. So i dont follow my computer blindly and tell it to give me buy or sell signals but use the indicators which are best fit at the right time after all we dont go to a formal party in a swim suit and to a beach in a three piece suit we choose the best possible clothes for a given ocassion.

I dont agree that a person using moving average in nifty since 2000 would have lost money if he had known when to use it. It was a ranged market from 2000 - 2003 and any one using oscillators may had even made more money than he did fro 2003 -2007. In 2003 sensex breaks this range and starts to trend thats the time we start to use trend following indicators like MA or MACD.

Now since we have started to fall from life time highs i think market if at all will trend down and hence we use trend following indicators again.

If we give a dentists' tool to a carpenter he will make a hole through the tooth till stomach coz he does not know how to use them. Indicators in same way work well in good hands only

I am open to see data of your indicators turning bullish and bearish and outperforming the buy-hold along the way, in the indices, for a reasonable period.

What do you advise to buy and hold a PUNTER stock like ISPAT or a BLUE CHIP like Bajaj which itself has lost its place in sensex,

And yes i dont give datas because i dont think what has worked in past will work today, i see all my probabilities in today & tomorrow rather than past

 

[oxusmorouz]

Moving average does not proclaim to be a god of the market but is a obedient follower. The thing with the indicators is that they cant come out of you computer and shout at you that use me now and dont use me now. Moving average works well with trending market which we are now in and its useless when we are in a ranged markets. So i dont follow my computer blindly and tell it to give me buy or sell signals but use the indicators which are best fit at the right time after all we dont go to a formal party in a swim suit and to a beach in a three piece suit we choose the best possible clothes for a given ocassion.

I dont agree that a person using moving average in nifty since 2000 would have lost money if he had known when to use it. It was a ranged market from 2000 - 2003 and any one using oscillators may had even made more money than he did fro 2003 -2007. In 2003 sensex breaks this range and starts to trend thats the time we start to use trend following indicators like MA or MACD.

From your post, I can say the methods you use are:
1) Based on hindsight, interpretation rather than a systematized set up.
2) On stressing that the moving average works in trending markets and does not work in a trendless markets paves way for another assumption - the need to identify trending and trendless markets.

Consider prayer as a cure to diseases. It depends upon (they say) the priest who prays, the faith of the follower etc etc. It is very easy to blame the failure of the prayer to cure the disease by blaming it on the lack of faith in the diseased. Compare that with tested medicines, which work for a specific problem irrespective human biases?

If we give a dentists' tool to a carpenter he will make a hole through the tooth till stomach coz he does not know how to use them. Indicators in same way work well in good hands only

Even the dentist will not survive long with flawed tools.

What do you advise to buy and hold a PUNTER stock like ISPAT or a BLUE CHIP like Bajaj which itself has lost its place in sensex,

And yes i dont give datas because i dont think what has worked in past will work today, i see all my probabilities in today & tomorrow rather than past

When did I propose buy-hold? I simply view it as the benchmark to a trend following system.

About working on hindsight, only time will tell.

 

[ratan jain]

Enough Guys!

Lets give our attention to back testing instead of all this?