From your post, I can say the methods you use are:
1) Based on hindsight, interpretation rather than a systematized set up.
2) On stressing that the moving average works in trending markets and does not work in a trendless markets paves way for another assumption - the need to identify trending and trendless markets.
Consider prayer as a cure to diseases. It depends upon (they say) the priest who prays, the faith of the follower etc etc. It is very easy to blame the failure of the prayer to cure the disease by blaming it on the lack of faith in the diseased. Compare that with tested medicines, which work for a specific problem irrespective human biases?
Even the dentist will not survive long with flawed tools.
When did I propose buy-hold? I simply view it as the benchmark to a trend following system.
About working on hindsight, only time will tell.
1) Based on hindsight, interpretation rather than a systematized set up.
2) On stressing that the moving average works in trending markets and does not work in a trendless markets paves way for another assumption - the need to identify trending and trendless markets.
Consider prayer as a cure to diseases. It depends upon (they say) the priest who prays, the faith of the follower etc etc. It is very easy to blame the failure of the prayer to cure the disease by blaming it on the lack of faith in the diseased. Compare that with tested medicines, which work for a specific problem irrespective human biases?
Even the dentist will not survive long with flawed tools.
When did I propose buy-hold? I simply view it as the benchmark to a trend following system.
About working on hindsight, only time will tell.